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Trading Lessons

Dow Transports Re-Enters Stocks Bear Market, Caution Warranted

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Dec 15, 2015 - 12:09 PM GMT

By: Christopher_Quigley

Stock-Markets

Arnold Toynbee “A Study of History”:
“Civilizations die by suicide not by murder”.

Very few people today know that between 1934 and 1961 the British historian Arnold Toynbee wrote “A Study of History” describing the rise and fall of the 23 civilizations he had identified in human history. In contrast to Oswald Spengler, who thought that the rise and fall of civilizations was inevitable, Toynbee maintained that the fate of civilizations is determined by their response to the challenges facing them. In fact the unifying theme throughout the book is challenge and response. One of the ground-breaking discoveries by Toynbee is the fact that there have been so many highly developed civilizations. Understandably in the West our history lessons focus on our own civilization with its roots in Greek and Roman cultures, but in addition there have been Chinese, Indian, Mayan, Islamic, Sumerian and Orthodox civilizations, to name but a few.


According to Toynbee, civilizations start to decay when they lose their moral fiber and the cultural elite turns parasitic, exploiting the masses and creating an internal and external proletariat. He has been criticized for exaggerating the role of religious and cultural value systems while underestimating the importance of economic factors in shaping civilizations.
It appears that with advancing age, Toynbee became even more convinced of the importance of the spiritual dimension.

Throughout his 12 volume epic Toynbee outlines how civilizations develop in response to environ-mental challenges of special difficulty. The challenges should be neither too severe to stifle progress, nor too favorable to inhibit creativity. Such challenges find response among the creative minority who provide leadership to a passive majority. Toynbee found through his study that the creative minority tended to be generally mystically inspired. Furthermore he outlined that civilizations breakdown as a result of the inevitable commission of the sins of: arrogance, hubris, over-weaning pride and self-confidence, manifested in such things as nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a dominant minority. This moral breakdown brings with it its own retributive justice (nemesis). The creative people having become reactionaries, no longer constitute an “elite creative minority” but simply an “elite dominant minority.”

 “We are not doomed to make history repeat itself; it is open to us, through our own efforts, to give history, in our case, some new and unprecedented turn. As human beings, we are endowed with this freedom of choice, and we cannot shuffle off our responsibility upon the shoulders of God or nature. We must shoulder it ourselves. It is up to us, it is up to us to respond creatively to the challenges of our time.”

In essence Toynbee propounds that when a civilization successfully responds to challenges, it grows. When it fails to respond to a challenge, it enters its period of decline. Toynbee argued that "Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder." For Toynbee, civilizations were not intangible or unalterable machines but a network of social relationships within its border and therefore subject to both wise and unwise decisions made.

I believe that the wisdom expounded within the pages of “A Study of History” should be rediscovered by our western leaders because it would appear to me that the West is no longer responding creatively to external challenges and that its “creative minority” has become “parasitic”. Thus according to Toynbee the West will terminally decline unless a new spiritually motivated minority emerges offering new creative leadership, bringing the society to a new level of consciousness and development.

Dow Transports Re-Enters Bear Market, Caution Warranted.
In an unexpected turn of events the Dow Transports has sliced below the August crash lows. This means that the tranny index has re-entered a bear market configuration. The Dow Industrials are still is in a stronger position but if the 15,370 level is broken down through the market will have an “official” Dow Theory sell re-confirmation signal.

B.Sc., M.M.I.I. Grad., M.A.
http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

Mr. Quigley was born in 1958 in Dublin, Ireland. He holds a Bachelor Degree in Accounting and Management from Trinity College Dublin and is a graduate of the Marketing Institute of Ireland. He commenced investing in the stock market in 1989 in Belmont, California where he lived for 6 years. He has developed the Wealthbuilder investment and trading course over the last two decades as a result of research, study and experience. This system marries fundamental analysis with technical analysis and focuses on momentum, value and pension strategies.

Since 2007 Mr. Quigley has written over 80 articles which have been published on popular web   sites based in California, New York, London and Dublin.

Mr. Quigley is now lives in Dublin, Ireland and Tampa Bay, Florida.

© 2015 Copyright Christopher M. Quigley - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Christopher M. Quigley Archive

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