Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK House Prices Momentum Crash Threatens Mini Bear Market 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Perfect Storm - This Fourth Turning has Over a Decade of Continuous Storms to Come - James_Quinn
3.UK House Prices Momentum Crash Warns of 2017 Bear Market - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Billionaire Investors Backing A Marijuana Boom In 2017 - OilPrice_Com
5.Emerging Markets & Basic Materials Stocks Breaking Out Together - Rambus_Chartology
6.Global Currency Reserve At Risk - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Gold and Silver: Your Stomach Is Probably Wrenching Right Now - The_Gold_Report
8.Warning: The Fed Is Preparing to Crash the Financial System Again - Graham_Summers
9.Basic Materials and Commodities Analysis and Trend Forecasts - Rambus_Chartology
10.Discover Why A Major American Revolution Is Brewing - Harry_Dent
Last 7 days
3 Psychological Ingredients behind Great Web Content - 17th Aug 17
The War on Cash - Rogoff, Orwell and Kafka - 17th Aug 17
The Stock Market Guns of August, Trade Set-Up & Removing your Rose Tinted Glasses - 16th Aug 17
Stocks, Bonds, Interest Rates, and Serbia, Camp Kotok 2017 - 16th Aug 17
U.S. Stock Market: Sunrise ... Sunset - 16th Aug 17
The Next Tech Crash Could Delay Your Retirement by a Decade - 15th Aug 17
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Nearing Breakout - 15th Aug 17
North Korea Showdown: Pivotal Market Turning Point - 15th Aug 17
Tech Stocks DOT COM Bubble Do-Over? - 14th Aug 17
Deep State Conspiracy or Chaos - 14th Aug 17
From the Trans-Atlantic Axis and the Trans-Asian Axis - 14th Aug 17
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Underway - 14th Aug 17
The Islamic State Jihadi Pivot to Asia - 13th Aug 17
Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold - 13th Aug 17
North Korean Chinese Proxy vs US Military Empire Trending Towards Nuclear War! - 12th Aug 17
Gold Stocks Coiled Spring - 12th Aug 17
Neil Howe: The Amazon-Walmart Rivalry Will Determine the Future of Retail - 12th Aug 17
How to Alton Towers Half Price Discount Entry 2017 and 2018, Any Time, No Pre-Booking! - 12th Aug 17
Top 3 Technical Trading Tools Part 2: Relative Strength Index (RSI) - 11th Aug 17
What Makes Women Better Investors - 11th Aug 17
Crude Oil Price Precious Metals Link in August - 11th Aug 17
Influencer Marketing Predictions All Businesses Should Take Into Account - 11th Aug 17
Really Bad Ideas - Government Debt Isn’t Actually Debt - 10th Aug 17
Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat - 9th Aug 17
Why Is The Stock Market Not Trading On Fundamentals Lately? - 9th Aug 17
USD/CAD - Can We Trust This Breakout? - 9th Aug 17
New Monthly Rebate to Help Reduce Your Trading Costs - 9th Aug 17
Stock Market Divergences Are Now Appearing! - 9th Aug 17
Is Inflation an issue or did the Fed Mess Up? - 8th Aug 17
Top 3 Technical Trading Tools Part 1: Japanese Candlesticks - 8th Aug 17
Researchers Find $10 Billion Hidden Treasure In A Dead Volcano - 8th Aug 17
What Happened to Thousands of Sheffield's Street Trees 2017 - Fellings Documentary - 8th Aug 17
Solar, Bubble, Banks, War, and Legal Tender: Five Reasons Why You Should Buy Silver Now - 7th Aug 17
CRASH - If Some People Do It, Nothing Bad Happens, But If Everyone Does It, All Hell Breaks Loose - 7th Aug 17
Gold and Silver : The Battle for Control - 7th Aug 17
Precious Metals Sector is on Major Buy Signal - 7th Aug 17
Stock Market - Has Time Run Out? - 7th Aug 17
Get Ready for an Historic Upside Gold and Silver Run - 7th Aug 17
BOOM! Bitcoin Rockets To New All-Time High As Cryptocurrencies Surge Higher! - 7th Aug 17
U.S. Dollar: This Crash Signals the End - 6th Aug 17
Predicting The Price Of Gold Is A Fool’s Game - 6th Aug 17
Asda Sales Collapse and Profits Crash! UK Retailer Sector Crisis 2017 - 6th Aug 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See - Free

A Stock Market Bear Party Perhaps

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Jan 11, 2016 - 04:10 PM GMT

By: Bob_Loukas

Stock-Markets

This blog post is a continuation of the bearish theme I highlighted and posted for you back in December, titled: Game Changing Action

Maybe 2016 will be the year when equity bears finally get to celebrate. Although I wouldn’t call an end to the “buy the dip” era quite yet, the current market has a different type of feel and vibe to it. Many people believe – and there is supporting historical evidence – that as January goes for equities, so goes the year. Bulls should hope this axiom doesn’t hold in 2016. The month is still young, but the first week of January ushered in the worst 5-day start to a year in the S&P 500’s history. The last time the market started a year this poorly was 2008, and we know how that turned out.


I am not projecting that 2016 will end up like 2008, but it could. As the bull market enters its seventh year, it’s clear that the cyclical advance is on borrowed time. With valuations at historical highs and the economy moving well below optimal levels, unless equities serve up a blow-off top, it’s difficult to see how the current bull advance can continue. I’ve been relatively bullish on the market for two years, but with the current Investor Cycle looking as if it’s topped, I’m thinking that it might be the bulls’ turn to be fooled by equities.

On a daily timeframe, a very well defined downtrend is in motion with clear Cycle evidence supporting it. If we look back over the past few Daily Cycles, we see an impulse rally into an early November top that failed to make a new high, followed in December by a new Daily Cycle that failed to exceed the November peak, resulting in a day 10 DC high. Since then, the current Daily Cycle has failed, and stocks are plummeting.

In the world of Cycles, equities are showing a classic topping pattern. With Daily Cycles in a declining pattern, we have very clear evidence that the Investor Cycle (IC) has topped. Although the equity markets are now oversold and a new DC is due, the damage is already done! The next Daily Cycle  (DC)should top within 10 trading days, and then turn lower to break below the August 2015 Investor Cycle Low (ICL).

Even though the broader NYSE and S&P indices show failed Daily Cycles and are in clear decline, they remain comfortably above their August lows. These markets, however, are typically led by the Transports and small caps, and these indices – the Dow Transportation index and the Russell 2000 – have broken below the August lows and now rest at multi-year lows. This type of divergence is shouting that the broader markets will also soon break below their August lows.

The Russell 2000 small cap index, in particular, has been suggesting for some time that the current IC is fundamentally weak. In December, the Russell was rejected at the 200-day moving average, and has since moved well below the October 2015 low. After leading the broader indices higher during much of the bull market, the Russell 2000 is again leading, only this time to the downside.

Bulls will suggest that the market is oversold, with technical levels that now favor a Cycle low. That has been the hallmark of the bull market and is why so many traders are confident that the current drop will eventually go down as yet another buy-the-dip opportunity. But for the first time since 2013, I suspect the bulls are going to be wrong. Until we have stronger confirmation, however, it doesn’t make sense to call the end of the bull market.

Equities just finished week 19 of the Investor Cycle, and that’s too early in the timing band for an ICL. And with a 5 year history of 24+ week Cycles behind us, an ICL in the coming days has only an outside chance of occurring . In addition, the current IC has an early, week 10 top that failed to make a new IC high, so I expect the IC to become Left Translated and to fail by falling below the August low. That implies that we should have an IC of at least 22 weeks, supporting the need for at least one more Daily Cycle lower before an ICL.

The setup is in place for a further decline, but I expect we’ll have a counter trend move higher first. I suspect that traders will step in after an initial drop on Monday, and could bid the market higher over the following two weeks. Look for the counter-trend move to approach 1,980 before turning lower into a rather fast, steep collapse below the Oct 2014 low at 1,820. That will set the stage for a potential 2016 bear market.

Trading Strategy Ideas

As always, you must understand the time-frame within which you wish to trade and structure your positions and risk levels accordingly.

In the very short-term, going Long equities now with a stop under Friday’s lows offers a good risk/reward opportunity on a counter-trend rally.  I can see a move back to 1,980, where partial profits should be taken, followed by a test of the 2,000 level over the next two weeks.  At that point, profits should be taken or at least a rising trailing stop strategy used.

I will be personally looking to renter short positions again around the 1,980- 2,000 level, to once more be in a position to capture significant gains from a Failed Daily Cycle.

Special One-Time Offer (ends Jan 15th)

By risking just $1, you could read this past weekend’s premium report in its entirety, along with enjoying full access to the Financial Tap for a full month, including all trade alert ideas.  If you like the service, as I expect, then simply do nothing, your membership will renew.  If you feel like the service is not for you, then simply cancel at anytime, your risk is just $1 to try it out.

LINK:  Monthly Sign Up Page

Use Coupon Code: Risk1Buck

By Bob Loukas

http://thefinancialtap.com

© 2016 Copyright  Bob Loukas - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife