Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
Will Biden’s Neo-Populist Economic Doctrine Support Gold? - 25th Sep 21
Markets Deflationary Winds Howling - 25th Sep 21
Crude Oil Price Piercing the Sky: Where Will We See the Black Gold by Xmas? - 25th Sep 21
Cryptocurrency policy choices and consequences - 25th Sep 21
The Next Emma Raducanu UK Tennis Star Pleasing the Crowds at Millhouses Park Sheffield - 25th Sep 21
Stock Market Rescued by the Fed Again? - 24th Sep 21
Are Amazon Best Cheap Memory Foam Mattresses Any good? Bedzonline £69 4ft Small Double ECO Example - 24th Sep 21
Evergrande not a Minsky Moment - 24th Sep 21
UK Energy Firms Scamming Customers Out of Their Best Fixed Rate Gas Tariffs - 23rd Sep 21
Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Should School Children be Jabbed with Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine To Foster Herd Immunity? - UK - 23rd Sep 21
HOW TO SAVE MONEY ON CAR INSURANCE - 23rd Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
Trading Crude Oil ETFs in Foreign Currencies: What to Focus On - 22nd Sep 21
URGENT - Crypto-trader event - 'Bitcoin... back to $65,000?' - 22nd Sep 21
Stock Market Time to Buy the Dip? - 22nd Sep 21
US Dollar Bears Are Fresh Out of Honey Pots - 22nd Sep 21
MetaTrader 5 Features Every Trader Should Know - 22nd Sep 21
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0 - 21st Sep 21
The Fed Is Playing The Biggest Game Of Chicken In History - 21st Sep 21
Focus on Stock Market Short-term Cycle - 21st Sep 21
Lands End Cornwall In VR360 - UK Holidays, Staycations - 21st Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September CRASH Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 20th Sep 21
Two Huge, Overlooked Drains on Global Silver Supplies - 20th Sep 21
Gold gets hammered but Copper fails to seize the moment - 20th Sep 21
New arms race and nuclear risks could spell End to the Asian Century - 20th Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 19th Sep 21
Dow Forecasting Neural Nets, Crossing the Rubicon With Three High Risk Chinese Tech Stocks - 18th Sep 21
If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher? - 18th Sep 21
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues - 18th Sep 21
So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks - 18th Sep 21
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner - 18th Sep 21
An Update on the End of College… and a New Way to Profit - 16th Sep 21
What Kind of Support and Services Can Your Accountant Provide? Your Main Questions Answered - 16th Sep 21
Consistent performance makes waste a good place to buy stocks - 16th Sep 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition - 15th Sep 21
Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper - 15th Sep 21
Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy - 15th Sep 21
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine - 15th Sep 21
How does product development affect a company’s market value? - 15th Sep 21
Types of Investment Property to Become Familiar with - 15th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Fourth Industrial Revolution: Robots, Artificial Intelligence Will Destroy 5.1 Million U.S. Jobs by 2020

Economics / Technology Jan 23, 2016 - 05:26 PM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Economics

Fourth Industrial Revolution Coming

A new study on the "Future of Jobs " by the World Economic Forum at Davos claims a Fourth Industrial Revolution is Coming.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution includes developments artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology, 3-D printing, genetics, and biotechnology.

Although no industrial revolution has ever destroyed jobs, the study concludes a net 5.1 million jobs will vanish in the world's 15 leading countries. Those countries account for roughly two-thirds of the global workforce.


The report is a 167 page PDF slog. Here are a couple of tables I created from the report data.


Job Family Losers

Job Family Losers Job Losses in Thousands
Office and Administrative 4,759
Manufacturing and Production 1,609
Construction and Extraction 497
Arts, Design, Sports, Media 151
Legal 109
Installation and Maintenance 40
Total 7,165

Job Family Gainers

Job Family Gainers Gains in Thousands
Business and Financial Operations 492
Management 416
Computer and Mathematical 405
Architecture and Engineering 339
Sales and Related 303
Education and Training 66
Total 2,021

I understand the losses, at least part of them. But gains in financial operations?

Everything Rosy but Healthcare

Curiously, the following chart from the report makes everything look rosy except healthcare.

Employment Outlook

I don't accept that chart, at least for the implied reasons. Yet, after boomers die off en masse, I foresee all kinds of health-related jobs will vanish until the next retirement boom hits.

Trucks and Taxis

What about truck and taxi drivers? I expect millions of truck hauling and taxi jobs will vanish soon, in the USA alone, by 2025.

I searched the report for the word "truck" and found this lone reference: "Advanced robots with enhanced senses, dexterity, and intelligence can be more practical than human labour in manufacturing, as well as in a growing number of service jobs, such as cleaning and maintenance. Moreover, it is now possible to create cars, trucks, aircraft, and boats that are completely or partly autonomous, which could revolutionize transportation, if regulations allow, as early as 2020."

That paragraph was under the category "Advanced Robotics and Autonomous Transport" given a disruptive weighting of 9%.

Let's dig deeper with a look at disruptive weightings.

Technological Drivers of Change

The last column is my set of abbreviated notes, condensed from descriptions in the report. The first three columns are as presented in the report.

Discussion of Disruptive Factors

I fail to see what big advances in computing power will do. Nor do I see crowdsourcing as a big factor.

I suspect crowdsourcing is one of those things with huge potential that never really flies because there is no money in it for anyone.

Remote sensors will eliminate the need for some humans, but hasn't that been underway for quite some time? If not, we can certainly get rid of all the meter maids.

On the energy side, fracking is an environmental disaster, and a bust for now, perhaps for a long time. And much of the clean energy systems only work with government subsidies. Battery technology will likely improve and replace or greatly reduce the need for gasoline. If so that will be very disruptive indeed.

But will batteries destroy jobs or just disrupt them?

Gas stations could become battery switching stations. That may require people to change the batteries, but it will also eliminate gas delivery and gas production jobs. Regardless, this type of change won't be in place by 2020.

I struggled mightily with the report's 34% rating for "Mobile Internet".

It's possible for huge numbers of teaching jobs to vanish with classes over the internet. And applications like Uber will also have an impact. Yet, this category is over-rated.

Biggest Disruptive Force

My number one job destructive force is advanced robotics and autonomous transport. Uber ties into this category as well.

Uber is adding jobs for now. In the not so distant future, long-haul trucking jobs, Uber driving jobs, and all taxi driving jobs will vanish.

Millions of driving jobs of all kinds will vanish in the US alone, by 2025 though, not 2020.

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2016 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Mike Shedlock Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in