Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.US Dollar Crashes, Gold And Bitcoin Skyrocket As Economic Recovery Lie Is Exposed - Jeff_Berwick
2.Now Obama Warns Americans to ‘Be Prepared’ for Disaster… What Does He Know? - Jeff_Berwick
3.EU Referendum - Britain's Immigration / Migrant Crisis Explained - Nadeem_Walayat
4.EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, Vote LEAVE an Act of Defiance! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Prominent Billionaire Investors Warn of Financial Crash, Quietly Position Themselves - MoneyMetals
6.Bankers Warn of BrExit Financial Armageddon if British People Vote for Freedom - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bad U.S. Jobs Report Prompts Stocks Bear Market Rally Towards New All Time Highs! - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold And Silver – Friday May Have Marked A Pivotal Turnaround - Michael_Noonan
9.EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, the Illusion of Democracy and Freedom - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Felix Zulauf: Monetary Stimulation Creates Bubbles, Not Prosperity Nor Growth - GoldandLiberty
Free Silver
Last 7 days
Investors Map Post-Brexit Strategies Amid Global Market Upheaval - 26th June 16
Gold Price Weekly COT Update - 26th June 16
First the UK, then Scotland ... then Texas? - 26th June 16
Stocks Bear Market Resumes or Just More Noise - 26th June 16
Gold And Silver: Security, And BREXIT - 25th June 16
Dow, Euro & Brexit Recap - 25th June 16
Resistance Holding Gold Stocks after Brexit - 25th June 16
Venezuela vs. Ecuador (Chavismo vs. Chavismo Dollarized) - 25th June 16
Gold, Silver And PM Stocks Summer Doldrums Risk - 24th June 16
Here’s Why China “Economic Hard-Landing” Worries Are Overblown - 24th June 16
Jubilee Jolt: Markets Crash, Gold Skyrockets as Britain Takes Brexit - 24th June 16
BrExit Morning - New Dawn for Britain, Independence Day! - 24th June 16
LEAVE Wins EU Referendum - Sterling and FTSE Hit Hard, Pollsters, Bookies and Markets All WRONG! - 24th June 16
Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win - 24th June 16
EU Referendum Shock Results Putting BrExit LEAVE in the Lead Hitting Sterling Hard - 24th June 16
Final Opinion Poll Gives REMAIN 52% Lead, Bookmakers, Markets and Pollsters ALL Back REMAIN Win - 23rd June 16
Does BREXIT Matter? Outlook for Sterling - 23rd June 16
Keep Calm and Vote BrExit - Last Chance to Break Free of EU Superstate - 23rd June 16
Here’s the Foreign Policy Trump and Clinton Really Want - 23rd June 16
Details Behind Semiconductor Stocks Leadership - 23rd June 16
Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - 23rd June 16
BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN - 22nd June 16
Proof that the Gold Bears are Wrong - 22nd June 16
Here’s a Trillion-Dollar Investment Opportunity for Those Few with No Debt - 22nd June 16
BrExit to Save Europe from Climate Change Refugee Migration Apocalypse - 22nd June 16
Increase In U.S. Rig Count Will Not Cap Oil Prices - 22nd June 16
Are Copper and China Stocks Set to Rally? - 22nd June 16
SPX May Break Its Trendline - 22nd June 16
Believe it or Not: More Kids Live At Home Now than Since The Great Depression - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Latest Opinion Polls Show LEAVE Halting REMAINs Surge - 21st June 16
British Pound Outlook - BREXIT, Europe and You - Does your vote matter? - 21st June 16
Fascist Victory Behind the European Union - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Opinion Polls Analysis Shows Strong Momentum in REMAINs Favour - 21st June 16
Is It Time to Dump Gold and Buy Platinum? - 21st June 16
Could Central Bankers Be Gold and Silver's BIGGEST Allies? - 20th June 16
Words Still Mean Things – Brexit With Graham Mehl - 20th June 16
Baroness Warsi the Manchurian Candidate Quits LEAVE for REMAIN, Boris Johnson Next? - 20th June 16
FTSE Soars, Stock Markets Bounce on LEAVE Polls Surge, Bookmakers Widen BrExit Odds - 20th June 16
Brexit Would Trigger Devolution of Europe - 20th June 16
Stock Market Week Of Uncertainty - 20th June 16
Will Gold’s Bullish Price Chart Outperform Gold’s 5 Bearish Indicators? - 20th June 16
Bonds And Stocks At All-Time Highs: Are Markets Confused Or Broken? - 20th June 16
Silver Sleeping On the Job - 19th June 16
BrExit Odds Sink, REMAIN Polls Boost by Jo Cox Killing by Radical Right Extremist, Conspiracy? - 19th June 16
How Elliott Waves Tell You When to "Jump In" & When to "Jump Out" of Markets - 18th June 16
Stock Market Inflection Point During Bifurcation - 18th June 16
Gold And Silver – Insanity Is World “Norm.” Keep Stacking! - 18th June 16
Gold Stocks - Bull Markets that Follow Epic Bears - 18th June 16
The Fed Giveth and the Gold Bullion Banks Taketh Away… - 17th June 16
Brexit: "The Vote Heard Around the World" - 17th June 16
Gold Stocks Summer Breakout? - 17th June 16
Stock Investors Get Higher Returns and More Dividend Income - In Less Time With Less Risk - 17th June 16
How to Use the Gold-to-Silver Ratio? - 17th June 16
Inflation, Deflation & Associated Trading Prospects - 17th June 16
Overnight Markets Struggling to Stay Flat - 17th June 16
Gold Price Surges to Highest in Nearly Two Years On Central Bank and Brexit Haven Demand - 17th June 16
Stock Market Thinking Upside Down; Dow 18k Still Key - 17th June 16
Jo Cox MP Terror Attack Killing Claimed for "Britain First" - Witness Report - 17th June 16
Stock Market, Iron Ore, Bitcoin – Is Silver Next for Chinese Momentum Investors? - 16th June 16
EU Referendum Campaigning Suspended Following Shooting of MP Jo Cox, Suspect Named as Tommy Mair - 16th June 16
Why People are Migrating to the UK, Illegal Immigration, Housing Crisis Consequences - 16th June 16
Stocks Fluctuate Following Recent Decline - Bottom Or Just Pause Before Another Leg Down? - 16th June 16
The US Consumer-Driven Economy Has Hit a Brick Wall - 16th June 16
Bitcoin Price Going Parabolic Again, Now At $730 and Up 60%+ In Last Three Weeks - 16th June 16
China's Hard Landing Has Already Begun! - 16th June 16
Crude Oil Price - Oil Bears vs. Support Zone - 16th June 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

France CAC40 Stock Market Technical Outlook

Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets Feb 13, 2016 - 06:25 PM GMT

By: Austin_Galt

Stock-Markets

The French stock index, the CAC40, has traded more or less as outlined in analysis produced back in May 2015. That analysis called the top in place and outlined expectations of a bear market to play out.

Price hit a low this past week at 3892 which was just over 26% down from the May 2015 high and I believe that may well represent the final low to the bear market.


Let's take a top down approach to the analysis beginning with the monthly chart.

CAC40 Monthly Chart

CAC40 Monthly Chart

I showed this chart back in May 2015 using the same bullish and bearish Fibonacci Fans to identify the 2015 high so let's revise them.

The bullish fan drawn from the 2009 low shows the 2015 high bang on resistance from the 76.4% angle while price is now back at support from the 88.6% angle.

The bearish fan, drawn from the 2000 high, shows the 2015 high at resistance from the 76.4% angle while price is now just above support from the 61.8% angle.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move up from 2009 low to 2015 high and the recent low was right around support from the 50% angle which keeps the uptrend in a relatively strong position, assuming this is the low of course.

The Bollinger Bands show the 2015 high traded above the upper band while the current low has traded well below the lower band. This characteristic is a common feature found at solid highs and lows.

The RSI is oversold while the MACD indicator is still bearish so caution still needs to be heeded but I believe conditions on the monthly chart are certainly conducive to a resumption of the uptrend.

CAC40 Weekly Chart

CAC40 Weekly Chart

The upper horizontal line denotes the 2011 high of 4169 and price has dipped under this level as it gives that support a thorough test.

The lower horizontal line denotes the 2014 low of 3789 and price turning back up above this level effectively puts in the next higher low thereby keeping the overall uptrend intact.

I have drawn three Fibonacci Fans but have excluded some unimportant angles to keep the picture uncluttered. Let's run through them.

The bearish fan drawn from the 2007 high shows the 2011 low at support from the 61.8% angle. The 88.6% angle provided solid resistance all throughout 2014. Once price eventually cracked above this 88.6% angle it became support and price has just dipped back under this angle as it gives the support a good test. I expect a bounce back above the angle imminently.

The bullish fan drawn from the 2009 low shows the 2015 high at resistance from the 50% angle. The 2011 low was bang on support from the 88.6% angle while the current low is bang on support from the 61.8% angle.

The bullish fan drawn from the 2011 low shows the 2014 low bang on support from the 50% angle while the current low is bang on support from the 61.8% angle.

So, there is clearly some excellent symmetry going on and it adds confidence that we may well have a solid low in play here.

The RSI is oversold with a bullish divergence showing at this price low while the MACD indicator is bearish although price turning back up would see that change fairly quickly.

Let's wrap it up with the daily chart.

CAC40 Daily Chart

CAC40 Daily Chart

I have drawn two bearish Fibonacci Fans - one from the 2015 high and one from the major secondary high. Both show the current low being right around support from the 88.6% angles from both fans. Nice.

The Bollinger Bands show price threatening to leave the lower band but until that happens it is still possible to push a touch lower or at least test the low.

The RSI shows a triple bullish divergence in place which often leads to a significant price rise while the MACD indicator is bearish although the averages do appear to be coming together with the potential for a bullish crossover shortly.

The two horizontal lines denote resistance from previous swing highs and price needs to bust above here to confirm the low is indeed in place.

Summing up, I have been bearish since my previous analysis called the bull market high back in 2015. I am now changing the outlook back to bullish with the expectation that a new bull market is about to begin.

By Austin Galt

www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

Austin Galt is The Voodoo Analyst. I have studied charts for over 20 years and am currently a private trader. Several years ago I worked as a licensed advisor with a well known Australian stock broker. While there was an abundance of fundamental analysts, there seemed to be a dearth of technical analysts. My aim here is to provide my view of technical analysis that is both intriguing and misunderstood by many. I like to refer to it as the black magic of stock market analysis.

Email - info@thevoodooanalyst.com 

My website is www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

© 2016 Copyright  The Voodoo Analyst - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Austin Galt Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife