Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.North Korean Chinese Proxy vs US Military Empire Trending Towards Nuclear War! - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Researchers Find $10 Billion Hidden Treasure In A Dead Volcano - OilPrice_Com
3.Gold and Silver : The Battle for Control - Rambus_Chartology
4.Asda Sales Collapse and Profits Crash! UK Retailer Sector Crisis 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Deep State Conspiracy or Chaos - James_Quinn
6.The Stock Market Guns of August, Trade Set-Up & Removing your Rose Tinted Glasses - Plunger
7.Gold Stocks Coiled Spring - Zeal_LLC
8.Neil Howe: The Amazon-Walmart Rivalry Will Determine the Future of Retail - John_Mauldin
9.Crude Oil Price Precious Metals Link in August - Nadia_Simmons
10.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Nearing Breakout - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Last 7 days
Global Financial Crisis 10 Years On: Gold Rises 100% from $650 to $1,300 - 23rd Aug 17
GBP/USD Extends Losses - 23rd Aug 17
Donald Trump Terrorist in Chief, “We Aren’t Nation-Building Again, We Are Killing Terrorists” - 23rd Aug 17
How Planned Fed Rate Increases Impact The National Debt & Deficits - 23rd Aug 17
The 3 Assets to Add to Your Stocks Portfolio in This Rate Tightening Cycle - 23rd Aug 17
Half Price UK Theme Parks Entry 2017 With Cheap Chocolate Packs - 23rd Aug 17
[GIFT] Market Control System! - 23rd Aug 17
4 Reasons European Stocks Will Make a Big Comeback This Year - 22nd Aug 17
3 Lesser-Known Charts Revealing a Massive Stock Market Disconnect - 22nd Aug 17
U.S. Treasury Secretary: "I Assume Fort Knox Gold Is Still There" - 22nd Aug 17
Is the Stock Market Setting itself up for a Spectacular Crash? - 22nd Aug 17
Power Elites Launches Civil War Against Trump - 22nd Aug 17
The Stock Market No Longer Cares About Trump - 21st Aug 17
The Coming Boom Of Productivity Will Get Our Economy Back On Track - 21st Aug 17
Buffett Sees Stock Market Crash Coming? His Cash Speaks Louder Than Words - 21st Aug 17
This Could Be The Biggest Gold Discovery In History - 21st Aug 17
Stock Market Correction in Full Swing - 21st Aug 17
Seeking Confirmations – US Stock Market - 21st Aug 17
The changing demographic of online gamblers - 21st Aug 17
Gold is a coiled spring… the breakout is here, fundamentals are in place, technicals are compelling - 20th Aug 17
A Midsummer Night's Dream: Buy Gold and Silver - 20th Aug 17
Gold Mining Stocks 2017 Fundamentals - 20th Aug 17
EIA Weekly Report and Crude Oil - 19th Aug 17
4 Insights for Adjusting Your Portfolio in a Rate-hike Environment - 19th Aug 17
Gold Direction Indicator - 19th Aug 17
Historical Inevitability and Gold and Silver Ownership - 19th Aug 17
You Are Being Lied To About “Low” Gold Demand - 19th Aug 17
This is Why Cocoa's Crash Was a Perfect Setup - 19th Aug 17
Gold, Silver Consolidate On Last Weeks Gains, Palladium Surges 36% YTD To 16 Year High - 19th Aug 17
North Korea Is Far From Being Irrational… It Has A Plan - 18th Aug 17
US Civil War - FUNCTIONAL ILLITERATES TRYING TO ERASE HISTORY - 18th Aug 17
Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High Over $4,400 As It Catches Paypal In Total Market Cap - 17th Aug 17
3 Psychological Ingredients behind Great Web Content - 17th Aug 17
The War on Cash - Rogoff, Orwell and Kafka - 17th Aug 17
The Stock Market Guns of August, Trade Set-Up & Removing your Rose Tinted Glasses - 16th Aug 17
Stocks, Bonds, Interest Rates, and Serbia, Camp Kotok 2017 - 16th Aug 17
U.S. Stock Market: Sunrise ... Sunset - 16th Aug 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See - Free

France CAC40 Stock Market Technical Outlook

Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets Feb 13, 2016 - 06:25 PM GMT

By: Austin_Galt

Stock-Markets

The French stock index, the CAC40, has traded more or less as outlined in analysis produced back in May 2015. That analysis called the top in place and outlined expectations of a bear market to play out.

Price hit a low this past week at 3892 which was just over 26% down from the May 2015 high and I believe that may well represent the final low to the bear market.


Let's take a top down approach to the analysis beginning with the monthly chart.

CAC40 Monthly Chart

CAC40 Monthly Chart

I showed this chart back in May 2015 using the same bullish and bearish Fibonacci Fans to identify the 2015 high so let's revise them.

The bullish fan drawn from the 2009 low shows the 2015 high bang on resistance from the 76.4% angle while price is now back at support from the 88.6% angle.

The bearish fan, drawn from the 2000 high, shows the 2015 high at resistance from the 76.4% angle while price is now just above support from the 61.8% angle.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move up from 2009 low to 2015 high and the recent low was right around support from the 50% angle which keeps the uptrend in a relatively strong position, assuming this is the low of course.

The Bollinger Bands show the 2015 high traded above the upper band while the current low has traded well below the lower band. This characteristic is a common feature found at solid highs and lows.

The RSI is oversold while the MACD indicator is still bearish so caution still needs to be heeded but I believe conditions on the monthly chart are certainly conducive to a resumption of the uptrend.

CAC40 Weekly Chart

CAC40 Weekly Chart

The upper horizontal line denotes the 2011 high of 4169 and price has dipped under this level as it gives that support a thorough test.

The lower horizontal line denotes the 2014 low of 3789 and price turning back up above this level effectively puts in the next higher low thereby keeping the overall uptrend intact.

I have drawn three Fibonacci Fans but have excluded some unimportant angles to keep the picture uncluttered. Let's run through them.

The bearish fan drawn from the 2007 high shows the 2011 low at support from the 61.8% angle. The 88.6% angle provided solid resistance all throughout 2014. Once price eventually cracked above this 88.6% angle it became support and price has just dipped back under this angle as it gives the support a good test. I expect a bounce back above the angle imminently.

The bullish fan drawn from the 2009 low shows the 2015 high at resistance from the 50% angle. The 2011 low was bang on support from the 88.6% angle while the current low is bang on support from the 61.8% angle.

The bullish fan drawn from the 2011 low shows the 2014 low bang on support from the 50% angle while the current low is bang on support from the 61.8% angle.

So, there is clearly some excellent symmetry going on and it adds confidence that we may well have a solid low in play here.

The RSI is oversold with a bullish divergence showing at this price low while the MACD indicator is bearish although price turning back up would see that change fairly quickly.

Let's wrap it up with the daily chart.

CAC40 Daily Chart

CAC40 Daily Chart

I have drawn two bearish Fibonacci Fans - one from the 2015 high and one from the major secondary high. Both show the current low being right around support from the 88.6% angles from both fans. Nice.

The Bollinger Bands show price threatening to leave the lower band but until that happens it is still possible to push a touch lower or at least test the low.

The RSI shows a triple bullish divergence in place which often leads to a significant price rise while the MACD indicator is bearish although the averages do appear to be coming together with the potential for a bullish crossover shortly.

The two horizontal lines denote resistance from previous swing highs and price needs to bust above here to confirm the low is indeed in place.

Summing up, I have been bearish since my previous analysis called the bull market high back in 2015. I am now changing the outlook back to bullish with the expectation that a new bull market is about to begin.

By Austin Galt

www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

Austin Galt is The Voodoo Analyst. I have studied charts for over 20 years and am currently a private trader. Several years ago I worked as a licensed advisor with a well known Australian stock broker. While there was an abundance of fundamental analysts, there seemed to be a dearth of technical analysts. My aim here is to provide my view of technical analysis that is both intriguing and misunderstood by many. I like to refer to it as the black magic of stock market analysis.

Email - info@thevoodooanalyst.com 

My website is www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

© 2016 Copyright  The Voodoo Analyst - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Austin Galt Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife