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Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Gold And Silver – Precious Metals Amid A World Of Lies And Deception

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016 Mar 12, 2016 - 04:38 PM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

Political and financial turmoil reign around the world, by design. It is the classic example of the elites at work working their never-fail formula of Problem-Reaction-Solution. They create havoc of some kind, any kind, wherever they choose, the Problem. It is usually political upheaval fomenting unrest, and the broader the unrest the better. It often takes the form of financial turmoil, disrupting a country’s GDP, currency, whatever, as long as there is disruption. It can be war, a function no other country creates more of than the US. It can be massive immigrant migration, currently underway. Why does the name Soros come to mind?


Form does not matter, function does, and as long as there are distracting and decidedly real Problems going on, much of the world is unhappy, and the elites are smiling, pleased. During all that goes on no matter where, no matter how dire, the Reaction[s] are being carefully monitored, the worse and more widespread they are, the better. Make the public clamor for a change for the better, relatively speaking, but it never gets better.

“Make the terrorism stop!” “Solve the immigrant problem!” “Get the country out of its financial morass!” In other words, stop the [designed] hurt, make it go away. The despair is like music to the elite’s ears, for they have an intended and carefully pre-planned Solution. It always involves giving up personal freedom and security, ceding control to the controlled-by-the-elites government[s].

The economic dismantling of the United States is a fait accompli. The US is done, beyond economical repair. The moneychangers have been at it since the days of the Revolutionary War, in this country. The Civil War was all about economic and financial control. The Rothschilds from England financed the North, while the Rothschilds from France financed the South. It was a win-win for them for wars lead to huge financial gain and control. It cost Lincoln his life.

The Rothschild formula of Give me control of a nation’s money, and I care not who makes the rules was finally entrenched with the forced passage of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, giving control of this nation’s money over to the foreign-owned and controlled Federal Reserve. Why control the money? Keep the country in permanent, unable to be repaid debt, for the moneychanger’s power and wealth comes from interest owed to them on the burgeoning and onerous debt. The elites rule, not politicians. Each country’s politicians are Bread and Circuses illusions for the masses.

The primary role for the US today is as the world’s economic hit man in order to preserve the last vestiges of the fading, worthless fiat Federal Reserve Note, a debt instrument that is more widely known as the US “dollar.”

Amidst the designed chaos in the Middle East, and it is actively intended chaos by the elites, comes a whole host of Problems: war, devastation and destruction costing millions of lives, almost all of whom are innocent people. Syria is a war all about the flow and control of oil and natural gas to Europe from the Middle East. The US-backed Sunnis, Saudi Arabia, et al, wants to destroy the Shias, now Russian-backed Syria, Iraq, and most importantly, Iran.

A by-product of the Middle East chaos is the flow of fleeing immigrants into Greece and Europe, creating economic and sovereign disruption for much of Europe, now besieged by out-of-control immigrants attacking, groping, raping women and even children. None of the elite-controlled governments are doing anything to resolve the problem. “Stay an arm’s length away from people unknown to you,” is the solution offered to the people of Cologne from its female mayor, Henriette Reker said.

Her advice, offered in response to a question about what women in Cologne can do to protect themselves, came during a news conference at which Reker issued her first public comments over reports from about 90 women alleging sexual harassment and thefts on New Year’s Eve. How comforting and responsible, Henriette.

How about German chancellor Angela Merkel? Another woman in charge for the people of Germany? We do no think so. Re the out of control immigrant issues, “It is my damn problem to find a solution,” she says. That is not a very popular sentiment amongst the German people who elected her. What about their solution? Sorry, Germans, your solution is not a part of the elite’s Solution, and Angela is catering to the elites.

Out of control Middle Easterners flooding into Europe, creating havoc, disrupting so many countries. Such a Problem, with a capital “P.” The Reaction is in progress. We cannot wait for the ultimate Solution to be carried out. Thank you, Angela. Your political future is in question, but your financial future is very secure as a reward for this whose interests you serve.

There is still no answer as to how this mass migration has been orchestrated and financed. Where did all of these immigrants get the money and means to travel? Why does NWO advocate George Soros keep coming to mind? So many questions, so few answers. The literal ticking time bomb of ISIS-trained immigrants making their way into Europe should lead to more Problems that will ultimately demand any kind of Solution.

Not overtly related, but in a switch in topics, one of the first events whenever there is any turmoil or war in a country is the disappearance of whatever gold that country may have. War is not the only pressure. Canada is not facing any [declared] war, but it has virtually sold all of its remaining gold reserves. That country had as much as $100 million oz in 2015, and it is reportedly down to about $19 million. In the 1960s, Canada had over 1,000 tonnes of gold. Now it has less than 1 tonne.

The West is in desperate need of gold to sell to the East. Thank you for your cooperation, Canada. The stupid never stops, as the expression goes.

Why has China accumulated so much gold? That country is going to put the Rule back in the Golden Rule of he who has the gold Rules. China knows gold is going to play a significant monetary role in the not too distant future. She wants to be in a position to have a greater say in the world, and the West will have a diminishing role. Plus, China knows that control over its currency plays an important role in keeping political control over its population.

When it comes to the pragmatic use of gold, China understands that metal’s role more than any other country. We cannot emphasize enough to follow outstanding examples of success in order to be successful. Do what the smartest country on the globe is doing and buy and hold as much physical gold and silver as you can.

Why?

You will be up the proverbial creek without a paddle if you have neither metal. Should you be concerned that the government will take back, like it did in the 1930s? No. There is not enough gold in the hands of the public to matter. Besides, pushing for a ban on cash and forcing people into total government [read that as elite] economic control by having only a form of digital currency on deposit in a bank pretty much limits what you can do to preserve what you have.

Gold and silver will likely become illegal to use in transactions, and there will be public pressure to rat out those who have/use either PM. So you have a choice: go along with the elite/government program and have none, and “officially,” you should not [admit to] have any, or keep accumulating whatever you can in order to preserve your own economical survival. There may be a black market only, or a form of bartering, but rest assured, having gold and/or silver will be the best form of financial insurance you can have.

Be a lemming or be a stacker. One always has a choice, although choices are getting harder and harder to make, independently.

We are at/near the end game for fiat currencies, in many ways. They are always issued by and under the control of some form of governmental entity, and it could be foreign, at some point, not just domestic.

Should one be concerned about price in buying PMs? Why? How do you set a price on financial independence, on fear of economic takeover by forces beyond your control? If you do not have it now, that may not be an option, sooner than later. Either imposed government restrictions, and one can almost rely on that, or if the price of gold and silver were to be reset higher, possibly even overnight, at some point, it may be out of reach to pay $5,000 or $10,000 an oz for gold, $200 or $400 an oz for silver.

Keep on buying. Timing is less important than having. Literally, better a year or two too early than a day late. Deal with the certainty of today, such as it is.

We talked a little about these issues in an interview conducted by Rory over at the Daily Coin, on Thursday. He does an excellent job of interviewing the top people in the gold and silver market. You can hear the interview here.

In terms of the paper market as an inexplicable barometer for the gold and silver price, we see the following.

The trend is the single most important factor in defining any market. For gold, the down trend may be changing, but a change has not yet been confirmed. We keep saying that, and it is not what most people want to hear. People prefer to be told “The bottom is in!” “Gold is going higher, right now!” etc. To say either would be misleading, and there have been many, over the past few years, saying both. The market says otherwise, and that is the only voice we heed, [not always correctly].

If December 2015 is to mark the bottom of the decline in gold, we need to see a higher low reaction that successfully retests, and thereby confirms, the bottom is now past tense. We called February as a potential trend changer, see here, and then gave a follow-up analysis last week, see here, if you missed either. This week is an ongoing extension of both.

What we said recently is that the current rally in gold, starting from the December 2015 lows, will eventually undergo a natural and necessary correction that will be a retest of the recent lows, and if the retest holds , it will be confirmation that a trend change is finally underway.

Our belief that the market sends the most reliable information, based on the interaction between price and volume, suggests a corrective reaction may be starting next week. The January 2015 swing high had the highest volume of all the recent swing highs. That means sellers were the most active, based on volume, and they will defend that price level.

Last week, gold appears to have made a reversal [everything is always subject to being confirmed], based on another weekly high on increased volume but with a close under the mid-range area of the bar. It is the close that determines who won the battle between buyers and sellers for any given bar/time frame, and the greater the volume, the more significant the impact.

What last week’s high did was confirm the validity of the swing high from a year ago. You can better see and understand that the confirmation process can take time. We expect a reaction now to retest the lows from December. The relatively higher volume levels during the recent rally can be a sign of strength, or it can mean sellers were selling into the rally, and the next reaction could be more substantial than many may expect.

We cannot know which interpretation will hold sway often until after the fact. What we can expect with a reasonable amount of likelihood is some degree of a correction. The market will provide answers in how the character of the next reaction develops. A read of the daily chart can be more helpful.

There is an area of potential support above 1180, and a half-way retracement is at the 1160 area. Here is where we can gauge the character of a decline. If the first are of support holds, the 1180+ area, that would be a relatively weak reaction, and weak reactions lead to higher prices.

If the correction reaches the 50% area, it would be considered a “normal” correction in an up trend, but gold has yet to be declared [by our analysis] to be in an uptrend. Holding at the 50% area, while lower than the identified 1180+ support, would still be a positive sign for a trend change as gold would be forming an important higher low.

A retest of the December ’15 lows could also hold at the 1110 area, even down to the 1060 area, and still be considered a successful retest and confirm a bottom. These would be three example of how the market could react, if it does, from last week’s high. There is no way to know how the next reaction lower will develop, but we at least have formulated some benchmarks in order to prepare for how the market unfolds.

A fourth scenario is a lower low under 1040, also a possibility. The market will provide important information as to which scenario may best fit, just as the market is providing information as we outlined in 1 – 5, on the chart, revealing a possible swing high.

Silver, for all of its fans and followers, ourselves included, still remains in a down trend, according to the kind of developing market activity we use as a guide. The last LL, which is December, was not much lower than the August swing low, and the inability to extend price lower is considered a plus. The largest volume bar, middle to late February, did not lead to further downside follow-through, and we add that observation to the smaller swing low to build on the potential signs for change in silver, not otherwise seen in performance.

There are times when there appears to be a lack of definitive clarity, and that has to be respected just as much as when price behavior is more readily apparent or defined. In the current instance for silver, all one can do is wait for a clearer outcome. There are some growing signs for change, but more is needed in order to validate what we see, for if there is no validation, silver will continue lower. It is that simple, not always or necessarily easy, but why make it more difficult? Go with what is, and if what is is not clear, that is the market saying to exercise caution.

Neither gold nor silver, on these paper futures charts, are saying that the fundamental strength underlying the physical, is about to take a dramatic shift to the upside. This tells us that the manipulation is still the controlling factor.

By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2016 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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