Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
The Hottest Sports Stock Of 2020 - 23rd Sep 19
Stocks Wedge At The Edge – Front And Center - 23rd Sep 19
Stock Market Top Almost Confirmed - 23rd Sep 19
Thomas Cook COLLAPSE! 300,000 Passengers Stranded, Flights Cancelled, Planes Grounded - 23rd Sep 19
Massive Stock Market Price Reversion May Be Days or Weeks Away - 22nd Sep 19
How Russia Seized Control of the Uranium Market - 22nd Sep 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - 21st Sep 19
Is Stock Market Price Revaluation Event About To Happen? - 21st Sep 19
Gold Leads, Will the Rest Follow? - 21st Sep 19
Are Cowboys Really Dreaming of... Electric Trucks? - 21st Sep 19
Gold among Negative-Yielding Bonds - 20th Sep 19
Panicky Fed Flooding Overnight Markets with Cash - 20th Sep 19
Uber Stock Price Will Crash on November 6 - 20th Sep 19
Semiconductor Stocks Sector Market & Economic Leader - 20th Sep 19
Learning Artificial Intelligence - What is a Neural Network? - 20th Sep 19
Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom - 20th Sep 19
Small Marketing Budget? No Problem! - 20th Sep 19
The Many Forex Trading Opportunities the Fed Day Has Dealt Us - 19th Sep 19
Fed Cuts Interest Rates and Gold Drops. Again - 19th Sep 19
Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video - 19th Sep 19
Baby Boomers Are the Worst Investors in the World - 19th Sep 19
Your $1,229 FREE Tticket to Elliott Market Analysis & Trading Set-ups - 19th Sep 19
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? - 19th Sep 19
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Invest in the Esports Revolution

SPX Interesting Stock Market Juncture

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Aug 07, 2016 - 06:03 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The week started at SPX 2174. After making an all time high on Monday at SPX 2178 the market pulled back to 2148 on Tuesday. After that the market worked its way higher to make another new all time high on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.2%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing/services, construction spending, factory orders, consumer debt, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit rose. On the uptick: personal income/spending, PCE prices, the ADP, monthly Payrolls, and Q3 GDP estimates. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Retail sales, Business inventories and Export/Import prices. Best to your weekend and week!


LONG TERM: uptrend

Before getting into all the details of this weekend’s report, which presents many variables, it is important to note that the minimum this long term uptrend can rise will not be made until the NYSE makes new all times highs. Which is still about 4% away!

When reviewing the weekly chart of the NYSE we continue to count this advance as Primary V of a five primary wave bull market. This is the most popular count in the Elliott Wave blogosphere. From the February 2016 Primary IV low this index has advanced with a Major wave 1 uptrend, an irregular Major 2 downtrend, and now a Major 3 uptrend underway. We’ll make some observations of this Major 3 uptrend in the next section.

Due to the objectivity of OEW the count presented on the SPX chart is quite different. This count suggests the bull market ended in 2015 with five primary waves up, then entered a primary ABC bear market. Under this scenario the February 2016 low was not Primary IV, but Primary A. And the current advance, even though the SPX is making new highs, is an irregular Primary B with a maximum upside of 2335 (1.618 x Primary A). Should the SPX exceed this level then the count being presented on the DOW charts, which will not be covered in this update, will be the main OEW count. Keep in mind both counts suggest at least another 4% upside in the major indices. We continue give both the NYSE and SPX counts an equal probability of 50%.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

When reviewing the NYSE daily chart we observed something quite interesting. The Major 1 uptrend off the Primary IV low was quite strong as the NYSE advanced 1650 points to 10593. Then after an irregular correction to NYSE 9919 the index started what was expected to be a Major 3 uptrend.

However, as noted in the next section, this uptrend may be ending soon and this advance does not look like a Major wave 3. It has only advanced about 900 points thus far, compared to the 1650 point advance of Major 1, and looks more like a subdivision of Major 3: i.e., an Intermediate wave one. Also, any correction from even NYSE 11100 would overlap Major wave 1 at NYSE 10593. This suggests two possibilities. One: this uptrend is only Intermediate wave one of Major 3, or. Two: this uptrend is subdividing and is going to continue higher than anticipated. Either way is a net positive for the market.

The SPX count, as noted on the above chart, displays four Intermediate waves completed from the Major wave B low at SPX 1992, and Int. wave v underway. This is the count we have been tracking throughout this expected Major wave C uptrend. If this uptrend is to end soon, as noted in the next section, it can not be all of Major wave C. Major C can not end until the NYSE has at least made all time new highs! Therefore the two variables noted above also apply to the SPX but with a slightly different variation. Either Major C is going to subdivide and this uptrend will extend, or this uptrend is only Int. wave a of Major C. The market has reached an interesting, albeit positive, inflection point. Medium term support is now at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots.

SHORT TERM

This section will hopefully explain what was implied in the two previous sections. The uptrend that started at the SPX 1992 low in late June, has thus far progressed in four Int. waves with the fifth wave underway. The problem arises in that Int. wave iii (104 pts.) was shorter than Int. wave one (117 pts.). As you know third waves cannot be the shortest wave. So Int. wave v has to be equal to or less than Int. iii (maximum 2252), or the entire uptrend is actually subdividing into a much larger uptrend. In which case Int. waves one and two would remain the same, but Int. wave three and four would actually be Minor waves 1 and 2 of Int. iii. An interesting juncture.

Under the current count, uptrend ending soon, there are several Fibonacci and Pivot levels that are worth noting. The pivots at 2212 and 2252, ( 7 pts.) are clearly the most obvious. The next obvious is the 2200 level, then the Fibonacci levels at 2221 and 2230 all at 2 pts. Anything above SPX 2252 and this uptrend is subdividing. Any correction after an uptrend completion, within these levels, and Major wave 3/C is subdividing in trends. Any SPX print above 2335 and it is probably heading much, much higher. Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week extremely overbought.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets for the week were mixed for a 0.2% net gain.

European markets were also mixed for a 0.3% net loss.

The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 0.7%.

The DJ World index lost 0.2%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds appear to be downtrending and lost 0.8% on the week.

Crude may have bottomed and gained 0.5% on the week.

Gold is still in an uptrend but lost 1.0%.

The USD may be starting an uptrend and gained 0.7%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: wholesale inventories. Wednesday: budget deficit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims and export/import prices. Friday: the PPI, retail sales, consumer sentiment and business inventories.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2016 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules