Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground - 9th Apr 21
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback - 9th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Unlimited? - 9th Apr 21
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 Evolving Trends For Mobile Casinos - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Analysis - 8th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? - 8th Apr 21
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally - 8th Apr 21
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation - 8th Apr 21
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II - 8th Apr 21
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs - 8th Apr 21
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back - 8th Apr 21
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? - 8th Apr 21
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits - 7th Apr 21
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE- 7th Apr 21
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies - 7th Apr 21
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit - 7th Apr 21
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger - 7th Apr 21
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success - 7th Apr 21
Investing in Google Deep Mind AI 2021 (Alphabet) - 6th Apr 21
Which ETFs Will Benefit As A Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns - 6th Apr 21
Staying Out of the Red: Financial Tips for Kent Homeowners - 6th Apr 21
Stock Market Pushing Higher - 6th Apr 21
Inflation Fears Rise on Biden’s $3.9 TRILLION in Deficit Spending - 6th Apr 21
Editing and Rendering Videos Whilst Background Crypto Mining Bitcoins with NiceHash, Davinci Resolve - 5th Apr 21
Why the Financial Gurus Are WRONG About Gold - 5th Apr 21
Will Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Rebuild Gold? - 5th Apr 21
Stocks All Time Highs and Gold Double Bottom - 5th Apr 21
All Tech Stocks Revolve Around This Disruptor - 5th Apr 21
Silver $100 Price Ahead - 4th Apr 21
Is Astra Zeneca Vaccine Safe? Risk of Blood Clots and What Side Effects During 8 Days After Jab - 4th Apr 21
Are Premium Bonds A Good Investment in 2021 vs Savings, AI Stocks and Housing Alternatives - 4th Apr 21
Penny Stocks Hit $2 Trillion - The Real Story Behind This "Road to Riches" Scheme - 4th Apr 21
Should Stock Markets Fear Inflation or Deflation? - 4th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 3rd Apr 21
Gold Price Just Can’t Seem to Breakout - 3rd Apr 21
Stocks, Gold and the Troubling Yields - 3rd Apr 21
What can you buy with cryptocurrencies?- 3rd Apr 21
What a Long and Not so Strange Trip it’s Been for the Gold Mining Stocks - 2nd Apr 21
WD My Book DUO 28tb Unboxing - What Drives Inside the Enclosure, Reds or Blues Review - 2nd Apr 21
Markets, Mayhem and Elliott Waves - 2nd Apr 21
Gold And US Dollar Hegemony - 2nd Apr 21
What Biden’s Big Infrastructure Push Means for Silver Price - 2nd Apr 21
Stock Market Support Near $14,358 On Transportation Index Suggests Rally Will Continue - 2nd Apr 21
Crypto Mine Bitcoin With Your Gaming PC - How Much Profit after 3 Weeks with NiceHash, RTX 3080 GPU - 2nd Apr 21
UK Lockdowns Ending As Europe Continues to Die, Sweet Child O' Mine 2021 Post Pandemic Hope - 2nd Apr 21
A Climbing USDX Means Gold Investors Should Care - 1st Apr 21
How To Spot Market Boom and Bust Cycles - 1st Apr 21
What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls - 1st Apr 21
Precious Metals Mining Stocks Setting Up For A Breakout Rally – Wait For Confirmation - 1st Apr 21
Fed: “We’re Not Going to Take This Punchbowl Away” - 1st Apr 21
Mining Bitcoin On My Desktop PC For 3 Weeks - How Much Crypto Profit Using RTX 3080 on NiceHash - 31st Mar 21
INFLATION - Wage Slaves vs Gold Owners - 31st Mar 21
Why It‘s Reasonable to Be Bullish Stocks and Gold - 31st Mar 21
How To Be Eligible For An E-Transfer Payday Loan? - 31st Mar 21
eXcentral Review – Trade CFDs with a Customer-Centric Broker - 31st Mar 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Risk Management and Portfolio Optimization

Portfolio / Risk Analysis Jul 27, 2008 - 10:43 AM GMT

By: Peter_Johansson

Portfolio Stock analysis based on technical analysis or fundamental analysis is getting a lot of attention and often form the the basis for investment decisions. Many private investors combine perhaps 5-10 assets into a portfolio and let their intuition guide the allocate between the assets. How this allocation could be done in an optimal way, analytically, receives little attention in financial newspapers and marketing from financial institutes although it has a great significance for expected returns and portfolio risk.


For every level of expected return, there is one optimal asset combination which offers the lowest possible risk, and for every level of risk, there is one optimal combination which offers the highest expected return. These portfolios are called "efficient portfolios" . When calculating efficient portfolios, three measures are needed:

  1. Expected returns for all portfolio assets (often estimated by averaging historical returns)
  2. Risk for all portfolio assets (estimated by volatility or standard deviation)
  3. Correlation between all portfolio assets

The correlation between two assets lies between -100% and 100%. The higher the correlation is between two assets, the more similar are the price movements of the assets. A high correlation, for example 70%, indicates that the assets tend to move in the same direction. If there is no relationship between the movements of two assets, then the correlation between them is zero. If correlation is negative the assets tend to move in opposite direction.

The risk of the portfolio will be less than the average of the risk of the individual assets. Portfolio risk also falls with correlation. The lower correlations are between assets of a portfolio, the lower the risk is of the portfolio . Diversification is thus be profitable when combining assets which are not entirely the same. But How Do We Combine Assets Into A Well-Balanced Portfolio?

A portfolio composed of many assets that are not highly correlated always offer a lower risk, but there is only one single optimal combination of assets which minimizes portfolio risk. There is no other combination of assets which can achieve a smaller portfolio risk. If your acceptable level of risk is higher you can optimize the portfolio so that risk is minimized while taking estimated returns in regard.

A lot of computer power is needed to identify efficient portfolios. With the Portfolio Optimization tool in Optimal Trader, you can easily calculate efficient portfolios for stocks and mutual funds. Portfolio Optimization is a risk management tools in Optimal Trader based on modern portfolio theory (for which Harry Markowitz received Nobel Prize in 1990).

Optimal Trader is a stock analysis software for analysis of stocks, funds, currencies, etc. In addition to risk management the software offers technical analysis based on neural networks and Portfolio Analysis.

By Peter Johansson

http://www.optimaltrader.net

Optimal Trader was founded in 2006 by Peter Pap de Pesteny Peter Pap de Pestény , M.Sc in Applied Physics and Electrical Engineering with specialization in Signal Processing. Peter Pap de Pestény has previously been working modeling different kinds of signals, among others with audio waves and movements of neural stem cells.

The ambition is to maximize the possibilities with technical analysis. Classic analysis software are often far too simple and do not work well in the overanalyzed stock market of today. Analysis methods have been improved with the power of modern digital signal processing and new models have been developed. This is the basis of Optimal Trader.

© 2008 Copyright Peter Johansson - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Peter Johansson Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules