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Stock Market Negative Expectations Following Tuesday's Decline - New Downtrend Or Just Consolidation?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Oct 13, 2016 - 12:12 PM GMT

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stock-Markets

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral


The main U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.1% and +0.1% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following Tuesday's decline. The S&P 500 index is the lowest since half of September. Is this a new downtrend or just more consolidation following June - July rally? The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,140-2,150, marked by previous support level. The next resistance level is at 2,170, among others. On the other hand, support level is at around 2,120, marked by September local low. The market trades along medium-term upward trend line, as the daily chart shows:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are negative, with index futures currently down 0.5-0.6%. The European stock market indexes have lost 0.7-1.3% so far. Investors will now wait for the Initial Claims number release at 8:30 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday downtrend, as it extends its recent move down. The nearest important level of support is at around 2,100-2,110. On the other hand, resistance level remains at 2,130-2,140, marked by short-term consolidation, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it extends its recent sell-off. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 4,800-4,820, marked by previous support level. On the other hand, support level is at 4,750-4,770, marked by some previous consolidation.

Concluding, the broad stock market fluctuated yesterday, following its recent decline. For now, it looks like a flat correction within a short-term downtrend. Therefore, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (opened on July 18th at 2,162, S&P 500 index). Stop-loss level is at 2,210 and potential profit target is at 2,050 (S&P 500 index). You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Stock Trading Alerts
SunshineProfits.com

Stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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