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Why 95% of Traders Fail

US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Will America Vote for BrExit Freedom?

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 02, 2016 - 07:52 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

It's the 2nd of November and not just America but the whole world is counting down to the US election day. Gone is the fantasy reporting of a week ago when the mainstream press, pollsters, political pundits, analysts, book makers and markets were literally all concluding that Hillary Clinton was heading for not just an election win but a landslide victory. And then the FBI detonated their Hillary emails bomb which has galvanised into action what had been a Trump campaign literally on life support, which saw many cowardly republicans throwing in the towel, abandoning the Trump ship, leaving the Trump Terminator to keep relentlessly plowing on and on, on his own, regardless of what the establishment media threw at him every other day, that which would have killed off any ordinary candidate's campaign months ago!


And which I warned in an article was another reason to not quite yet write Trump off (Can Donald Trump, The Terminator Still Win the Election Despite, Pollsters, Bookies, Media and Pundits?) referencing the video I posted on the 4th of October that portrayed Donald Trump as a Terminator figure that refuses to stop!

In my election forecast of September 25th, and accompanying video I concluded that Donald Trump would WIN the general election due to the BrExit factor that allowed for a 3-4% swing in the outcome which would not show up in the opinion polls. And so as a consequence of Donald Trump being the first anti-establishment candidate in perhaps at least 40 years was expected to capitalise on the BrExit factor.

25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House

And since which all of my articles and videos have tended to conclude that Donald Trump still stood a chance of winning regardless of what the polls and the betting markets were stating. However, I did say that I would revisit my forecast of September 25th much closer to election day just as I had done for my forecast for BrExit ahead of the June 23rd EU Referendum vote.

And so here is my final look at the prospects for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton winning the US Presidential Election 2016 as we enter the final week.

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments


03 Nov 16, 10:54
change

LOL the only way you could have any sort of real change would be if you kicked all of the current politicians out and replaced them with something else. Whether they vote Trump in or not will change nothing.

Theexiles



03 Nov 16, 12:54
brave man to go against all odds

wrong. sometimes it takes one brave man to go against all odds. just remember Gorbachev. nobody kicked the Russian politicians back then and replaced them with "something else", it were the same people, but Gorbachev managed to turn things around. yes, he made a lot of mistakes, but he shifted things in the right direction. if not for him, Russia would still be a socialist country. and btw, the US now resembles ex Soviet Union more and more: one-party corrupted socialist country.

Not Formatted


charlesmortlock
03 Nov 16, 14:54
betting on trump

I thought you would like to know nadeem that following your article several weeks ago although not having bet in years I put 30 quid on trump with betfair to win at 3.5 to 1 then the odds went to 6 to 1 and I put another 20 quid on as I am totally confident that you will be right and i was therefore delighted to see 6 to 1.

Now we will soon see and i m sure im going to pick up about 220 quid on a trump victory.



03 Nov 16, 15:49
Hillary Crimes

Hillary Clinton should be locked up for her crimes against America,

never mind running for president. With all her corrupt monies from the

Clinton Foundation, her socialist agendas, foreign government kickbacks,

anti US Constitution mind-set, Benghazi blood on her hands, E-mail

scandals, stealing the nomination from Sanders (and he's supporting her

now?? WTF), getting debate questions ahead of time, disdain for

Christians, public vs private positions, surrounding and insulating

herself with corrupt and immoral leaches, and her superior bitchy

arrogance. Where did the $330 million dollars come from if she was broke

when leaving the White House? It's pay for play! The entire US

government will be totally and irrevocably corrupted permanently if

she's elected. Don't be fooled by her, she's wrong for America. Think,

who is the worse of the two candidates to lead America into the future?

TheLunarLumen


Nadeem_Walayat
03 Nov 16, 19:45
Betting on Trump

I last added at 5.6. I was tempted to add again at 6.4 but thought it's not looking good for the position, so left it at that.

If Trump wins, I should make about £1500.


charlesmortlock
10 Nov 16, 10:52
betting on trump

we both won ! The day before yesterday i was working on a ship and everyone laughed when i said trump was going to win and i had 50 quid on it scoffed and mocked but they werent laughing when i went back yesterday !

They said i must be chuffed but to be honest i regretted not putting 1000 on, I dont think I will ever see odds of 6 to 1 on a two horse race again.

But....300 quid for a 50 stake is the best i ever did thanx for the heads up !


Nadeem_Walayat
10 Nov 16, 15:27
Trump Winnings

Good for you !

My last bet on Trump was 1.5 hours before the polls closed at 6.4.

After the polls closed I saw the odds soar to 12 ! But I did not have the balls to bet more, never mind,

Best

Nadeem W.


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