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Why 95% of Traders Fail

Can Donald Trump, The Terminator Still Win the Election Despite, Pollsters, Bookies, Media and Pundits?

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Oct 28, 2016 - 04:13 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The more I watch the US election race the more one thing stands out above all others that the establishment media is just failing to get, and that is Donald Trump is no ordinary politician, far from it, the United States has not seen the likes of a character such as Donald Trump ever before and so I am not surprised that the media just don't get! Are not seeing what I am seeing, which is why virtually every day statements made by Trump that would have killed off any other candidate off months ago does not appear to have any effect on Donald Trump. Facts ? Fiction? Truth? Lies? It's all the same thing in the Trump Universe!


When I posted the following video on the 4th of October I had perhaps a subliminal inkling of what Donald Trump was -

Click it and at least watch the opening minute - The Terminator! That is what best describes Donald Trump, this guy is truly relentless, like no one we have seen before other than the actual fictional terminator, he just does not stop! Truth, lies, fact, fiction, none of it matters to the Terminator who just keeps trundling on relentlessly.

So folks, its not just the BrExit factor at work, which has been my working theory for why the anti-establishment Donald Trump could still win this election despite being way behind in the polls, and the betting markets as the following table illustrates.

Date Time (BST) Hillary Trump Comments
25th Sept   1.58 3.05 Trending in Trumps favour
27th Sept 2am 1.57 2.88 Trump peaks just prior to the start of the 1st debate
27th Sept 4am 1.44 3.35 Just after the 1st debate confirming Trump lost.
30th Sept 3am 1.45 3.45 Odds continuing to move against Trump election win
30th Sept 9pm 1.39 3.75 Accelerating meltdown of Trump odds
1st Oct 2pm 1.37 3.85 Still little sign of Trump recovery
4th Oct 9pm 1.35 4.05 Trump continues losing trend
5th Oct 5am 1.36 3.90 Pence wins VP debate
7th Oct 5pm 1.38 3.8 Trump recovery continues
8th Oct 12pm 1.32 4.8 Effect of leaked audio tape of Trump Groping women
9th Oct 8pm 1.25 5.7 Trump campaign in free fall
10th Oct 4.30am 1.27 5.2 Trump wins 2nd Debate.
11th Oct 4pm 1.21 6.2 Trump crashes to new low of 6.4
12th Oct 2am 1.20 6.4 No end in sign to Trump collapse
15th Oct 4pm 1.19 6.6 Trump on life support, may decide to abandon campaign.
20th Oct 1am 1.21 5.8 Trump bounces going into 3rd debate.
23rd Oct 5pm 1.21 6 No sign of recovery, Brexit can't bridge this wide a gap.
28th Oct 1am 1.21 6 No change 5 days on.

With the latest average of the polls putting Hillary on 46.8% and Trump on 40% which is a huge near 7% gap, but which does NOT account for the BrExit factor!

Instead Donald Trump goes BEYOND BrExit, he is a relentlessly driven machine candidate, which plays well into my latest series of analysis on machine intelligence investing. So it's all coming together, because it really isn't over until the Rosy O'Donnell sings!

And here is long standing forecast forecast as of 26th September -

25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House

And lastly here's my last video analysis of 12th of October.

And ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get my final conclusion in your email in box due within the next few days.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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