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Basing Just Under The Breakout... Stock Market Bubble Continues...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Nov 19, 2016 - 12:22 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


he market is getting closer and close to that 2194 breakout the bulls have been waiting for since the double top in August. The market has been meandering around offering hope to the bears from time to time, but that hope gets squashed quickly. Every time we get a move lower that looks to head lower still the bulls find a way, no matter the news, to fire the market back up.

Some indexes have already broken out but the key index, the S&P 500, has yet to do so, and getting a confirmation from the S&P 500 would put the bears to sleep for good. Well, at least for a good while. We got within a few points this week but overbought oscillators, which could still use more unwinding, stopped the advance above 2194. It doesn't mean we will get that unwinding, since bull markets tend to stay overbought, but you have to respect those oscillators when they get top heavy, and. Thus. be prepared for some selling even though we got ever so close.

Maybe we just blow out and stay overbought for weeks at a time, and that too has to be part of thought process, but when you're overbought you need to see the move with force to trust that the market no longer cares about being overbought. Individual stocks have gotten and stayed overbought with some RSI's hitting near or above 70. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) reached 90 intraday last week, and is still having trouble unwinding. It's harder for a key index, such as the S&P 500 to hit that type of overbought, since there are so many stocks making up the index. That said, RSI's can reach the 80 level at times on indexes on key breakouts. All of this said, we are still waiting for the move over 2194 to get the bulls frothing even more than they already are. We're not there yet.

I keep getting asked how long this market bubble can go on for. We only know one thing. When it ends, it ends very badly. What we don't know and can't know is how far it runs. S&P 500 2300? 2500? 3000? 3500? No way to know. If rates stay relatively low for years to come then the market can stay up there. What we also can't grasp is what news may be out there that we don't know of yet that can end the bull in a single moment. I can fully appreciate the feeling of security this market has earned, but I always say to never let your guard down, no matter how good things feel. The market is a total bubble so at the very least, respect that.

Fed Yellen has worked long and hard for the gains in the market and seems to want more. She's in full control for now. She's already hinted that after the likely rate hike in December it's likely she'll pull back once again and not raise for quite some time. The market will like the low-rate environment for as long as she allows it to last. Enjoy this gift, folks. It's undeserved and inappropriate, but it's real and still showing no signs of letting up. That said, risk is there, and when this all ends it will get very ugly. For now, the market is still growing roses.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2016

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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