Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 23rd Nov 20
Evolution of the Fed - 23rd Nov 20
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison - 23rd Nov 20
Nasdaq NQ Has Stalled Above a 1.382 Fibonacci Expansion Range Three Times - 23rd Nov 20
Learn How To Trade Forex Successfully - 23rd Nov 20
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20
THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE - Video - 19th Nov 20
Reasons why Bitcoin is Treading at it's Highest Level Since 2017 and a Warning - 19th Nov 20
Media Celebrates after Trump’s Pro-Gold Fed Nominee Gets Blocked - 19th Nov 20
DJIA Short-term Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th Nov 20
Demoncracy Ushers in the Flu World Order How to Survive and Profit From What Is Coming - 19th Nov 20
US Bond Market: "When Investors Should Worry" - 18th Nov 20
Gold Remains the Best Pandemic Insurance - 18th Nov 20
GPU Fan Not Spinning FIX - How to Easily Extend the Life of Your Gaming PC System - 18th Nov 20
Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Tag 30k Twice – Setting Up Stock Market Double Top - 18th Nov 20
Edge Computing Is Leading the Next Great Tech Revolution - 18th Nov 20
This Chart Signals When Gold Stocks Will Explode - 17th Nov 20
Gold Price Momentous ally From 2000 Compared To SPY Stock Market and Nasdaq - 17th Nov 20
Creating Marketing Campaigns Using the Freedom of Information Act - 17th Nov 20
ILLEGITIMATE PRESIDENT - 17th Nov 20
Stock Market Uptrend in Process - 17th Nov 20
How My Friend Made $128,000 Investing in Stocks Without Knowing It - 16th Nov 20
Free-spending Biden and/or continued Fed stimulus will hike Gold prices - 16th Nov 20
Top Cheap Budgie Toys - Every Budgie Owner Should Have These Safe Bird Toys! - 16th Nov 20
Line Up For Your Jab to get your Covaids Freedom Pass and a 5% Work From Home Tax - 16th Nov 20
You May Have Overlooked These “Sleeper” Precious Metals - 16th Nov 20
Demystifying interesting facts about online Casinos - 16th Nov 20
What's Ahead for the Gold Market? - 15th Nov 20
Gold’s Momentous Rally From 2000 Compared To Stock Market SPY & QQQ - 15th Nov 20
Overclockers UK Quality of Custom Gaming System Build - OEM Windows Sticker? - 15th Nov 20
UK GCSE Exams 2021 CANCELLED! Grades Based on Mock Exams and Teacher Assessments - 15th Nov 20
Global "Debt Mountain": Beware of This "New Peak" - 13th Nov 20
Overclocking Zen 3 Ryzen 5600x, 5800x, 5900x and 5950x to 4.7ghz All Cores Cinebench R20 Scores - 13th Nov 20
Is Silver Leading Bitcoin or is Bitcoin Leading Silver? - 13th Nov 20
How Elliott Waves Simplify Your Technical Analysis - 13th Nov 20
How to buy Bitcoins using debit/credit card? - 13th Nov 20
Will COVID Vaccine Kill Gold and Silver? - 12th Nov 20
Access to Critical Market Reports - 12th Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Futures Reach 30,000 on News of COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Success - 12th Nov 20
8 Terms & Conditions You Must Know Before Asking For Life Insurance Policy Quotes - 12th Nov 20
Gold Stocks Post 2020 US Election Outlook - 11th Nov 20
Champions’ League Group Stage Draw: All You Need To Know - 11th Nov 20
Stock Market Secular Trend - 11th Nov 20
Stock Market Correction Curtailed by US Election - 11th Nov 20
What Causes a Financial Bubble? - 11th Nov 20
Ryzen 9 5900X RTX 3080 - Scan.co.uk vs Overclockers.co.uk UK Custom PC System Builder Review - 10th Nov 20
Killing Driveway Weeds FAST with a Pressure Washer - Saving Block Paving from LOTS of WEEDs - 10th Nov 20
Trump Fired, Biden Hired, What Next?  - 10th Nov 20
Looking for a Personal Loan? Here Is What You Have To Know  - 10th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Gold Price Forecast: Nasty Naughty November Gold Price Trend

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016 Nov 22, 2016 - 03:24 AM GMT

By: I_M_Vronsky

Commodities

As all are well aware the price of gold initiated a new bull market since December 2015 (rising from $1,050 to its $1,376 peak in early July this year. Indeed it was a spectacular bull price run where gold soared more than +30% in only six months. Indeed spectacular!

Subsequently, the bull trend petered out in early July. Since then the price of gold has been steadily declining. Moreover, there are several reasons for this on-going price consolidation…and why it has yet to put in a bottom:

  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield Soaring
  • US$ Index Surges
  • US$ vs 3-Month T-Bill
  • Weekly $UST1Y vs USD Chart
  • Point&Figure Projections (Gold, USD and Silver)
  • Traditional November Gold Price Decline

Six Analytical Tells Suggesting A Lower Gold Price

3-Month T-Bill Yield Soaring

(Source:  http://tinyurl.com/hbkzlbp )

The US 3-Month T-Bill yield has begun to soar. In fact it is presently at nearly 5%...an eight year high. As history is testament this will attract millions of international investors to the US Dollar. Correspondingly, the greenback should continue to rise (as shown in the following chart).

US$ Index Surges

(Source:  http://tinyurl.com/hj7nlf7  )

To be sure the gold price usually (but not always) runs inverse to the value of the US$ Index. Moreover, the above chart clearly shows the US$ has been slowly rising from early 2014, but has additionally built a Bull Flag Formation, which has recently broken above the bull pattern…thus signaling higher values for the US greenback.

US$ vs 3-Month T-Bill

(Source:  http://tinyurl.com/gv2avp8  )

Undeniably, since 2011 the US Dollar Index runs on-balance and in tandem with the US 3-Month T-Bill Yield. Moreover, the T-Bill yields have been surging upward during this month of November…thus suggesting further strengthening of the US$. 

Weekly $UST1Y vs USD Chart

Clearly, the US Dollar Index runs overall and in approximate tandem with the US 1-Year Treasury Yield.

(Source:  http://tinyurl.com/zegaooh )

Continued rising of these two metrics forecasts lower gold prices.

Point&Figure Projections (Gold, USD and Silver)

Point&Figure Analysis is NOT an exact science. Nonetheless, it is an additional indicator to help guide ones decision making to determine the possible price objectives going forward.  Here are the most recent price objective charts of Gold, US$ and Silver per P&F Analysis.

(Source: StockCharts)

Traditional November Gold Price Decline

Among the Analytical Six Tells Suggesting A Lower Gold Price, this analyst believes the most reliable gold price forecaster is the Traditional November Gold Price Decline.

Indubitably, the gold price in past Novembers has been an open season killer of Gold Bulls.  Here is what occurred in Novembers past:

During November 2011 gold price fell  -9.1%

During November 2012 gold price fell  -4.1%

During November 2013 gold price fell   -9.8%

During November 2014 gold price rose +1.1%

During November 2015 gold price fell   -7.9%

Excluding the November 2014 results which was an anomaly to the traditional November price action, the average four year November decline for the price of gold was -7.7%.  Applying this to the present situation, forecasts the possibility of gold dropping to about $1,175 sometime before December.

(Source: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=%24GOLD  )

As the above Gold Seasonality table demonstrates, November is traditionally the worst month for the gold price (during the past five years – excluding 2014).

Summary And Conclusion

Based upon the overall conclusions of the above six tells suggesting a lower gold price, there is high probability the value gold may decline to about $1,175 by the end of this month (based upon the average November declines since 2011 - excluding 2014). And although Point&Figure analysis is NOT an accurate price forecasting metric, prudent investors should not exclude the possibility the price of gold may even fall to $1,087 (per the Double Bottom Breakdown as shown above in P&F).  Additionally, a daily bar chart of gold shows a Bear Market Flag that has already triggered, thus producing a price objective of about $1,080…which might materialize sometime before yearend.

HOWEVER, once the bottom is established, the price of gold will indubitably soar to new all-time highs in 2017 and years beyond…as the US stock market plunges into a long overdue Bear Market. Moreover, the unprecedented 34 year bond bull market appears to be faltering…and may also plunge to begin a very long overdue BEAR MARKET TREND.  Consequently and indubitably, panicked bond investors worldwide will flee to the historical safe-haven of gold.

By I. M. Vronsky
Editor & Partner - Gold-Eagle
www.gold-eagle.com

Founder of GOLD-EAGLE in January 1997. Vronsky has over 40 years’ experience in the international investment world, having cut his financial teeth in Wall Street as a Financial Analyst with White Weld.  He believes gold and silver will soon be recognized as legal tender in all 50 US states (Utah and Arizona having already passed laws to that effect). Vronsky speaks three languages with indifference:   English, Spanish and Brazilian Portuguese.  His education includes university degrees in Engineering, Liberal Arts and an MBA in International Business Administration – qualifying as Phi Beta Kappa for high scholastic achievement in all three.

© 2016 Copyright I. M. Vronsky - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules