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UK General Election 2017 BrExit Factor Hidden from Pollsters Swing?

ElectionOracle / UK General Election May 30, 2017 - 11:27 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

If your not already aware of the Brexit factor then it is an anti-establishment invisible to the pollsters swing of between 2-4%, which is why the pollsters keep getting the likes of the UK general election 2015, EU Referendum 2016 and the US Presidential Election 2016 very badly wrong as the pollsters always tend to skew the results in favour of those who commission the polls i.e. the establishment media.


The pollsters are well practiced at playing this smoke and mirrors game and thus always have their get out of jail card to fall back on, one of 'the margin of error' which tends to be 3% to 6%. Which means even though they keep getting election outcomes BADLY WRONG. As for instance Yougov on the close of polls on the EU referendum night gave the referendum to REMAIN on 52% against LEAVE on 48% when instead the reality was the exact opposite as I covered in my following comprehensive video analysis of the accuracy of pollsters across elections of the past few years.

The video is set to play a clip shortly after the polling stations closed on June 23rd 2016, when Yougov declared REMAIN had won the referendum. And not many months AFTER the debacle of getting the EU Referendum wrong the polling industry would once more set themselves up for MEGA-FAIL by collectively declaring that Hillary Clinton would win the US presidential election. So having learned nothing from their earlier disaster once more remained completely ignorant of the BrExit factor and what it meant for the outcome of the US Presidential election as I covered in my following comprehensive video of why Trump won.

And in this election the Conservatives are definitely the beneficiaries of the Brexit factor despite being the party of government, which is self evident given their poll lead. HOWEVER, this is already the making Brexit a success election. So I am not sure that there is any invisible swing out there in THIS election i.e. unlike 2015 there are unlikely to be many shy tories out there.

In fact it has been apparent from the mainstream presses coverage of the voting intentions of the public questioned just how open people have been where some despite having never voted Tory before, in this election they would be voting for Theresa May.

Which ironically means in this BrExit general election we are unlikely to see any hidden from the pollsters BrExit swing, so yes the pollsters will crow very loudly that they finally got an election right, BUT will likely soon revert to form in most if not for all future elections because this election is the BrExit election and thus there is no BrExit swing factor at play

And here are the seats per party forecasts based on the local election results and opinion pollsters

UK Local Election Results Forecast for General Election 2017

Opinion Polls Based UK General Election Seats Per Party Forecast 2017

Opinion Polls Based UK General Election Seats Per Party Forecast 2017

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for the next analysis in this series as I countdown to my UK general election 2017 final forecast conclusion and to our youtube channel for videos in this and the BrExit War series.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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