Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 18th May 20
Why the Largest Cyberattack in History Will Happen Within Six Months - 18th May 20
New AMD Ryzen 4900x and 4950x Zen3 4th Gen Processors Clock Speed and Cores Specs - 18th May 20
Learn How to Play the Violin, Kids Activities and Learning During Lockdown - 18th May 20
The Great Economy Reopening Gamble - 17th May 20
Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold - 17th May 20
An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below - 17th May 20
Learn more about the UK Casino Self-exclusion - 17th May 20
Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? - 15th May 20
Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? - 15th May 20
Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good - 15th May 20
Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation - 15th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: UK General Election

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

ElectionOracle

Monday, December 09, 2019

Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This article continues from (30 Nov 2019 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election) concluding in Tory seats forecast as a consquecne of the Labour vs Tory manifestos.

However, Maniesto impacts analysis is part of a series of pieces of in-depth analysis that were first made available to Patrons who support my work.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My first article in this UK general election series concluded in a core forecast of seats for the Conservative party based on the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections - UK house prices momentum.

The remaining articles in this series in the countdown to voting day (December 12th) aim to fine tune my core expectation towards a final seats per party forecast.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Forecasting UK General Election 2019 Result With Lessons Learned from 2017 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Boris Johnson finally managed to persuade a frightened of the electorate Labour party to agree to hold a snap UK general election on the 12th of December 2019. An election that Johnson originally planned to hold Mid October ahead of the 31st October Brexit deadline, but extreme paralysis that has been the state of Westminster since June 2017 dragged out the painful process for another couple of months as Britain missed yet another Brexit deadline.

The latest poll of opinion polls puts the the Tories on 42%, Labour on 30% and the Lib Dems on 15% with the trend in the Tories favour which the pollsters continue to go onto extrapolate into the Tories winning the election typically on a majority of over 70 seats as illustrated by https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Friday, September 13, 2019

UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the current state of the parties after Boris Johnson ejected 21 MP's from the Tory party last week.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Thursday, September 12, 2019

UK General Election 2019 - Opinion Polls / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The latest opinion polls (for what they are worth) show the Tories gaining ground under Boris Johnson's clear cut do or die Brexit leadership, rising from 26% in July to 34% today, virtually all of the gains coming from the Brexit party which fell from 20% to 13%. Whilst the Labour party has stagnated on 24%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Monday, July 10, 2017

How to Accurately Forecast the UK General Election in Nine Steps / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In early April everything appeared to be going smoothly for Britain, Article 50 had been triggered without any significant political opposition apart from the SNP's shrill cry for another independence referendum from north of the Scottish border. But then Theresa May made the fatal mistake of believing the tripe that calls itself Britain's polling industry, that convinced her that a snap general election would yield a landslide victory, thus strengthening her hand in the about to begin BrEXIT negotiations.

And so started Britain's decent into chaos, an election campaign that had many Tory supporters asking if Theresa May was actually trying to lose the election by her antics most notable of which was her u-turn on the manifesto dementia tax. Whilst on the other hand the mainstream media was totally blind to the way Jeremy Corbyn was galvanising the anti-austerity vote, where every pundit and forecaster without exception right up until the polls closed on June 8th expected the Conservatives to win with an INCREASED majority, on a tally ranging to as high as 414 seats, though most clustered around 365 seat for the Tories.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Friday, July 07, 2017

UK Election Forecasting - YouGov Snatches Defeat from the Jaws of Victory! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The most notable outlier forecast of the 2017 UK general election was YouGov's seats forecast announced about 2 weeks prior to the general election that was contrary to every other pollster and analysts at the time. Initially YouGov forecast that the Tories would only achieve 310 seats.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Sunday, July 02, 2017

UK Election 2017 Disaster, Fake BrExit Chaos, Forecasting Lessons for Next Time / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

During Mid April everything appeared to be going smoothly for Britain, Article 50 had been triggered without any political opposition apart from Sturgeons shrill cry's for another Independence referendum from north of the Scottish border. But then Theresa May made the fatal mistake of believing the tripe that calls itself Britain's polling industry, that convinced her that a snap general election would yield a landslide victory, thus strengthening her hand in the about to begin BrEXIT negotiations.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Are the UK Elections a Forgone Conclusion? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Submissions

....

 


ElectionOracle

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

When Will Theresa May 'Dead Woman Walking' Resign? Forecast / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

George Osborne the architect of the Conservative surprise general election victory of 2015 that no one saw coming as every polls based forecaster had been expecting a hung parliament with the most probable outcome being that for a Labour led coalition government. Instead David Cameron's Tories in 2015 eeked out a small outright majority government that gave the Conservatives the false confidence to go ahead with the EU referendum again based on the opinion polls that REMAIN just could not lose, but they did and so did Cameron and Osborne, replaced by May and Hammond.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

UK General Election Results Map 2017 vs 2015 vs Opinion Polls / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The UK General Election result of 2017 surprised all just as had the election result of 2015 when every polls based analyst had been expecting a hung parliament with the most probable outcome being for a Labour led coalition government. Instead David Cameron's Tories in 2015 eeked out a small outright majority government that gave the Conservatives the false confidence to go ahead with the EU referendum again based on the opinion polls that REMAIN could not lose, but they did and so did Cameron and Osborne. Now it was the turn of Theresa May to get it very badly wrong, lulled into a false sense of BrExit security as the pollsters this time forecast a certain landslide, when instead the impossible Hung Parliament materialised literally forcing Theresa May into doing a deal with Northern Irelands Protestant fundamentalists.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Friday, June 09, 2017

Theresa May to Resign, Fatal Error Was to Believe Worthless Opinion Polls! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Opinion pollsters have done it again, have got another major election very, very badly wrong. What's worse is that before the start of the campaign were projecting a 20%+ lead that forecast a landside Tory election victory of well over 400 seats, that had convinced a technocratic Theresa May to call a snap general election, that is likely to cost her job as Prime Minister.

I am sure Theresa May is pondering when she should resign, likely immediately given the dismal results as per the BBC's revised forecast of their Exit poll adding 8 seats to their earlier Tory tally of 314 to now 322. Whilst at the same time cutting Labours seats estimate from 266 to 261. Suggesting a disastrous result for the Conservatives, hence triggering Theresa May's resignation.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Friday, June 09, 2017

Scotland Saves Tory Government, BBC Revises Exit Poll Forecast to 322, Labour 261, SNP 32 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The BBC have revised their earlier hung parliament exit poll forecast in favour of the Conservatives by adding 8 seats to their earlier tally of 314 to now 322. Whilst at the same time cutting Labours seats total from 266 to 261. Suggesting a disastrous result for the Conservatives. Though at the rate the BBC are revising the Tory seats total higher then they may still achieve an overall majority which means, even at 322 it most definitely is not over for the Conservative government who could continue in government despite damage done to their political capital.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Friday, June 09, 2017

UK Financial Markets Calm in Election Storm, is the BBC Exit Poll Wrong? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm tonight, the BBC / ITV / Sky joint Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2017 that forecasts a shock election result - Conservatives on 314, Labour on 266, Lib Dems on 14 and the SNP on 34 which implied a shock hung parliament election result that was expected to trigger market panic as happened following the EU Referendum.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

BBC Exit Poll Forecasts Shock Hung Parliament - Conservative 314, Labour 266, SNP 34 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm tonight, the BBC / ITV / Sky joint Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2017 that forecasts a shock election result - Conservatives on 314, Labour on 266, Lib Dems on 14 and the SNP on 34 which implies a shock hung parliament election result! - MARKETS PANIC!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

UK General Election BBC Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 32 million voters out of a total of approx 47 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of election night, the BBC EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have been all over the place for the past month, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 6 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

General Election Latest Opinion Polls and Betting Market Forecasts / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 2017 General Election has proved to be one of the most volatile elections in terms of the polls for decades, which has seen the opinion polls based forecasters literally playing pin the tail on the donkey since Theresa May called the BrExit election. Virtually all of the pollsters started the campaign by forecasting a Tory landslide Conservative election victory of over 400 seats that mostly persisted until barely to 2 weeks ago as the following table illustrates:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

YouGov Final Election Bullshit Forecast - Tories Increased Majority But on 302 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

YouGov are turning themselves into first class headline grabbing bullshit artists. Having gained mainstream media attention with their first of a series of headline grabbing seat forecasts just over a week ago that stated they were forecasting that the Conservatives would actually LOSE seats by falling to 310 with Labour rising to 247 i.e. a hung parliament. And with their latest Conservative seats forecast of 302, with Labour rising to 269. Now barely hours before the polls open YouGov are running with an headline that implies the EXACT OPPOSITE RESULT! "Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority". So could someone explain to me how is one expected to capitalise / utilise / interpret YouGov's two alternative outcome forecasts?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Sheffiled City Council / Amey Trees Rampage Costs Labour Sheffield Hallam Election Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: N_Walayat

The Labour party smells blood in Sheffield Hallam having come within just 4% of winning the former Liberal Democrat Leader, Nick Clegg's seat in2015. And now with little signs of Liberal Democrat recovery in the polls, Labour are going all out to take the Sheffield Hallam seat in tomorrows vote.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Election 2017 Seats Analysis YG / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

...

 


Page << | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | >>