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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: UK General Election

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Politics

Sunday, April 23, 2017

The Upsides and Risks of May's Snap UK Election Decision / Politics / UK General Election

By: STRATFOR

The decision by Prime Minister Theresa May to call a snap election took the United Kingdom somewhat by surprise. When word went out early Tuesday that she was to make an announcement an hour later, rumors about what she would say rumbled across the country, touching on everything from the possible death of the queen to the announcement of direct rule in Northern Ireland. The idea that she would call a snap election initially was dismissed in light of her previous flat denials, but once the other possibilities were eliminated, an election was all that could remain.

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Politics

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Theresa May Calls Snap BrExit UK General Election Capitalising on Crippled Labour Party / Politics / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Theresa May surprises everyone by calling a BrExit snap UK General Election on 8th June 2017. And this really is a surprise to all because previously she has repeatedly stated that she would not be calling an early general election. Instead in a statement today she made clear that her slender majority in the House of Commons was not large enough to secure a strong BrExit outcome for the United Kingdom.

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News_Letter

Monday, May 18, 2015

Deconstruction of UK Election 2015 Result - Why Opinion Pollsters Got it Wrong / News_Letter / UK General Election

By: NewsLetter

The Market Oracle Newsletter May 14th, 2015

Issue # 9 Vol. 9
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News_Letter

Monday, May 18, 2015

UK Election Forecast 2015 - Who Will Win? / News_Letter / UK General Election

By: NewsLetter

The Market Oracle Newsletter May 1st, 2015

Issue # 8 Vol. 9
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News_Letter

Monday, May 18, 2015

UK House Prices, Immigration, Population Growth and Election Forecast 2015 / News_Letter / UK General Election

By: NewsLetter

The Market Oracle Newsletter April 15th, 2015

Issue # 7 Vol. 9
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News_Letter

Monday, May 18, 2015

UK Election Forecast 2015 - Coalition Economic Recovery vs Labour Collapse / News_Letter / UK General Election

By: NewsLetter

The Market Oracle Newsletter April 1st, 2015

Issue # 6 Vol. 9
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News_Letter

Monday, May 18, 2015

UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? / News_Letter / UK General Election

By: NewsLetter

The Market Oracle Newsletter Feb 28th, 2015

Issue # 5 Vol. 9
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News_Letter

Monday, May 18, 2015

UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others / News_Letter / UK General Election

By: NewsLetter

The Market Oracle Newsletter Feb 28th, 2015
Issue # 4 Vol. 9

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ElectionOracle

Friday, May 15, 2015

Why Opinion Pollsters Got UK Election 2015 Badly Wrong / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Barely a week ago the people of Britain were going to the polls in what was unanimously proclaimed by the mainstream media as a too close to call general election, one where the Labour and Conservative parties were virtually neck and neck and where even if the Conservatives managed to pull a a handful of seats ahead would still lose be default as they would not be able to form a majority even with Lib Dem support and therefore the Labour party appeared to be destined to win the 2015 general election, all of which was based on a year of opinion polls that consistently presented this consensus view right up to the polls closed at 10pm.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Deconstruction of UK General Election 2015 Result - Why Opinion Pollsters Got it Wrong / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This time last week the people of Britain were going to the polls in what was unanimously proclaimed by the mainstream media as a too close to call general election, one where the Labour and Conservative parties were virtually neck and neck and where even if the Conservatives managed to pull a a handful of seats ahead would still lose be default as they would not be able to form a majority even with Lib Dem support and therefore the Labour party appeared to be destined to win the 2015 general election, all of which was based on a year of opinion polls that consistently presented this consensus view right up to the polls closed at 10pm. Instead, the reality proved to be the exact opposite as instead of the Ed Milliband walking into No 10 we had David Cameron texting the removal vans to do an about turn as he raced back to Downing Street before the locks were changed.

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Politics

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

UK Election 2015 Results Repercussions for America / Politics / UK General Election

By: John_Browne

The British General Election, on May 7th, was an epic in two respects. First, in spite of polls forecasting a hung parliament, David Cameron's Conservative Party was given unexpectedly large support, winning 331 seats, or 51 % for an overall majority of four,and showing once again the failure of left wing parties to make traction in Europe. Second, Nicola Sturgeon's Scottish Nationalists Party (SNP) swept the Labour Party aside in Scotland to achieve an unexpected landslide and rekindle Scottish pressure for independence and, with it, a threat to the continued cohesion of the United Kingdom. Likely there will be important long-term repercussions for the United States.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

UK House Prices Forecast Conservative Election Win 2015 - Video / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst the opinion pollsters, academics, pseudo-analysts (journalists) and book makers ALL got the 2015 UK general election badly wrong right upto the close of the polls, who collectively forecast that the only workable outcome would be one of a minority Labour government supported by the SNP. Instead the actual result surprised all by delivering an outright majority Conservative government that not even the exit poll forecast and which only became apparent after about 600 of the 650 results were declared.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Pollsters Launch Inquiry into Worthless Wrong UK Election 2015 Opinion Polls / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Survation, YouGov, Populous, ICM, Ipsos Mori, ComRes, Ashcroft and the rest regurgitated at length in the mainstream press ALL got their opinion polling for the UK general election badly wrong, not just a little wrong but to such an extent that they were forecasting the exact opposite in terms of which major party could go on to form the next government as illustrated by the most popular opinion polls to seats forecasting sites:

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ElectionOracle

Monday, May 11, 2015

Why Labour Lost Election 2015, Who will be Next New Labour Leader? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Labour suffered its worst defeat in over 30 years, putting the party back to where it stood under the disastrous leadership of Michael Foot, and even worse when considering the blood bath in Scotland where the Labour party was born, which saw the Scottish Nationalists take every Labour seat bar 1. The election result has shocked about half the electorate whilst surprising the rest as what amounted to daily worthless opinion polls had led the nation to believe that this was a neck and neck election race, one in which where even if Labour had won far fewer seats than the Conservatives then Labour were still likely to go on and form next government as illustrated below:

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, May 10, 2015

England's Voters Tell SNP Scottish National Socialists to STFU - UK Election Result Analysis / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

For over a year the people of Britain have had Scottish nationalism, one of me, me, me, want, want, want, demand, demand, demand rammed down their throats, and seeing the Scottish Nationalists set to wipe out Labour in Scotland and also heavily promoting backing for a weak Milliband government in Westminister, that would be dancing to Alex Salmond's SNP tune at huge further detriment to England's hard working tax payers who already are forced to pick up the bill for a huge disparity in public spending per capita of over £2,000 per person per year. Said through the ballot box that enough is enough and VOTED NO to what would have amounted to an SNP dictatorship by voting for an Anti- Scottish National Socialism government into power in Westminister so as to completely neutralise the Labour bloodbath in Scotland, as Labour socialism would have been bad enough never mind Scottish National Socialism!

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, May 10, 2015

The Guardian UK Election Seats Forecast vs Actual Result / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Guardian and the rest of the mainstream press have effectively wasted tens of millions of £'s on worthless opinion polls that got it so badly wrong that they were forecasting the opposite of what actually came to pass in terms of which party was most likely to be able to form the next government. This is an analysis of The Guardian's election seats forecasts that I tracked for 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, May 10, 2015

ElectionForecast.co.uk Seats Forecast vs Actual UK Election Result / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

'You know nothing' said Channel 4's John Snow to the opinion pollsters, all of whom got their polling badly wrong to such an extent that they were forecasting the opposite of what actually came to pass in terms of which party would go on to form the next government. This article is an analysis of the popular ElectionForecast.co.uk election seats forecasting site that I tracked for 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, May 09, 2015

Electoral Calculus UK Election 2015 Seats Forecast vs Actual Result / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

All of the opinion pollsters got their UK polling badly wrong to such an extent that they were forecasting the party that would end up losing by 100 seats as the one that stood the greatest probability of forming the next government. This article is an analysis of the popular ElectoralCalculus.co.uk election seats forecasting website that I tracked for 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, May 09, 2015

May2015_com UK General Election Seats Forecast vs Outcome / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The opinion pollsters for the 2015 UK general election were not just off by a few seats but got their polling very badly wrong to the extent of which party(s) could form the next government. This article is an analysis of the New Statesman's May2015.com popular election forecasting website that produced near daily updates of the seats per party forecast based on the opinion polls, that I tracked during 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, May 09, 2015

Nate Silver Badly Wrong AGAIN on UK General Election Forecast - 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

U.S. Election forecasting guru Nate Silver's forecasting firm http://fivethirtyeight.com, that got the 2015 UK general election just as badly wrong as he the previous 2010, have been busy putting up a smoke screen of excuses as to why they got it wrong once more, as a case of when they get it right claim praise but when wrong blames others such as the opinion polls - Its your methodology stupid!

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