Most Popular
1. THE INFLATION MONSTER is Forecasting RECESSION - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends - Rambus_Chartology
5.Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
7.PPT HALTS STOCK MARKET CRASH ahead of Fed May Interest Rate Hike Meeting - Nadeem_Walayat
8.50 Small Cap Growth Stocks Analysis to CAPITALISE on the Stock Market Inflation -Nadeem_Walayat
9.WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING MARKET - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Why PEAK INFLATION is a RED HERRING! Prepare for a Decade Long Cost of Living Crisis - 9th Aug 22
FREETRADE Want to LEND My Shares to Short Sellers! - 8th Aug 22
Stock Market Unclosed Gap - 8th Aug 22
The End Game for Silver Shenanigans... - 8th Aug 22er
WARNING Corsair MP600 NVME2 M2 SSD Are Prone to Failure Can Prevent Systems From Booting - 8th Aug 22
Elliott Waves: Your "Rhyme & Reason" to Mainstream Stock Market Opinions - 6th Aug 22
COST OF LIVING CRISIS NIGHTMARE - Expect High INFLATION for whole of this DECADE! - 6th Aug 22
WHY PEAK INFLATION RED HERRING - 5th Aug 22
Recession Is Good for Gold, but a Crisis Would Be Even Better - 5th Aug 22
Stock Market Rallying On Slowly Thinning Air - 5th Aug 22
SILVER’S BAD BREAK - 5th Aug 22
Stock Market Trend Pattren 2022 Forecast Current State - 4th Aug 22
Should We Be Prepared For An Aggressive U.S. Fed In The Future? - 4th Aug 22
Will the S&P 500 Stock Market Index Go the Way of Meme Stocks? - 4th Aug 22
Stock Market Another Upswing Attempt - 4th Aug 22
What is our Real Economic and Financial Prognosis? - 4th Aug 22
The REAL Stocks Bear Market of 2022 - 3rd Aug 22
The ‘Wishful Thinking’ Fed Is Anything But ‘Neutral’ - 3rd Aug 22
Don’t Be Misled by Gold’s Recent Upswing - 3rd Aug 22
Aluminum, Copper, Zinc: The 3 Horsemen of the Upcoming "Econocalypse" - 31st July 22
Gold Stocks’ Rally Autumn 2022 - 31st July 22
US Fed Is Battling Excess Global Capital – Which Is Creating Inflation - 31st July 22
What it's like at a Stocks Bear Market Bottom - 29th July 22
How to lock in a Guaranteed 9.6% return from Uncle Sam With I Bonds - 29th July 22
All You Need to Know About the Increase in Building Insurance Premiums for Flats - 29th July 22
The Challenges on the Horizon for UK Landlords - 29th July 22
The Psychology of Investing in a Stocks Bear Market - 26th July 22
Claiming and Calculating The Research and Development Tax Credit - 26th July 22
Stock Market Bearish Test - 26th July 22
Social Media Tips and Writing an Effective Call to Action - 26th July 22
Has Rishi Sunak Succeeded in Buying His Way Into No 10 - Fake Tory Leadership Contest - 26th July 22
The Psychology of Investing in a Stocks Bear Market - 26th July 22
Claiming and Calculating The Research and Development Tax Credit - 26th July 22
Stock Market Bearish Test - 26th July 22
Social Media Tips and Writing an Effective Call to Action - 26th July 22
Has Rishi Sunak Succeeded in Buying His Way Into No 10 - Fake Tory Leadership Contest - 26th July 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

UK General Election 2017 Spread and Exchange Betting Market Opportunities

ElectionOracle / Spread Betting Jun 06, 2017 - 05:13 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

With the opinion polls all over the as illustrated by the pollster based Conservative Party seats forecasts wide range from 305 to 385. Where it would be great if one could bet against the pollsters! i.e. ring up YouGov and go LONG on their forecast of Conservative 305 seats and SHORT of their Labour 267 seats. Of course they would never do that, as they clearly don't put their money where their mouths are, instead without consequence continue to pump out headline grabbing seats forecasts as demanded by the mainstream media to sell copy.


Whilst I recently concluded in my UK election forecast conclusion on the basis of the sum of my analysis of the past 6 weeks which aims to repeat the accuracy of Trump 2016, EU Referendum 2016 and GE2015.

UK General Election 2017 Final Seats Per Party Forecast Conclusion

So on the basis of my forecast conclusion and with 3 full days to go until the polls close the search is on for spread and exchange betting market opportunities.

FIRSTLY, understand that trading markets, betting, gambling are HIGH RISK activities. And a forecast is NOT written in stone, it is what I deem to be the most probable. And most gamblers tend to lose in the long run with losses can exceeding deposits. So if you don't have the stomach to take a loss then DO NOT TRADE OR BET!

My primary UK election forecast expectation is for the Tories to win the election on 358 seats, a 66 seat majority.

Spread Betting Market

My preferred vehicles for betting on elections are the betting markets such as the spread betters and exchange markets.

The current prices being quoted by the spread better Financial Spreads are :

(losses can exceed deposits)

Therefore the Tories are currently trading at 365 against my forecast of 358, which at the moment does not present much of an spread betting opportunity. However market volatility is very high i.e. here are the spread betting prices from just a couple of weeks ago :

And the following graph further illustrates Conservative seats market volatility :

Therefore I expect volatility in the wake of for instance YouGov's crazy polls to deliver market opportunities both in the countdown and in the immediate aftermath of the UK General election result, just as occurred during the US Presidential Election and the EU Referendum.

So it could be worth keeping a close eye on the spread betters for significant deviations from my forecast. One of the best strategies is to use stop and limit orders, i.e. for a trade to be executed when a market price hits a particular level which saves one having to constantly monitor a market. Again do remember that betting is high risk and losses can exceed deposits.

BetFair Exchange Market

Betfair is another favourite of mine as it presents a myriad of betting options. So having scoured the Betfair market then these are the bets that have caught my attention -

Size of Conservative Majority

The forecast majority is 66 therefore an high reward profit potential exists given the price of 6.4 for 50-74 seats. However given the tightness of the ranges then there would be a need for smaller hedging bets on either side of the expected range i.e. 25 to 49 and 75 to 99 seats.

For example

£100 on 50 to 74 should be hedged with £20 on 50-74 and £20 on 75 to 99

Total Conservatives Seats

The opportunity here is a lot tougher as the forecast of 358 is towards the bottom of the range on offer. So this market favours an error in the forecast being to the upside rather than to the down side, for instance not towards what house prices are forecasting (342). Also the profit potential is poor at just £95 per £100 bet. Whilst a bet on the forecast being out by 10 seats would favour the 300 to 349 seats bet price of 3.75. So similarly two bets to cover the range 300 to 400 is probably the better trade here so as to hedge the forecast being wrong on the downside.

Conservatives Under 370.5 seats

Again the odds are nothing to shout about but the distance of 371 to 358 gives a 13 seat margin of error for a price of 1.79. So maybe a smaller hedge bet to cover being wrong on the downside.

And once more whilst today's prices may not be great, however polling induced market volatility could present a series of opportunities over the coming days, so these final days and hours until the results are known is the time period to keep a close eye on the betting markets.

And I will likely once more publish a list of my 'winning' election positions after the election just as I had for the US Presidential election.

And remember not to get carried away! Don't bet more than you can afford to lose because it is a gamble!

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my latest analysis and to our youtube channel for videos in the BrExit War series.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in