Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19
US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - 16th June 19
Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting - 16th June 19
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 16th June 19
Fethiye Market Fruit, Veg, Spices and Turkish Delight Tourist Shopping - 16th June 19
US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis - 15th June 19
Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals - 15th June 19
The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline - 15th June 19
Fire Insurance Claims: What Are the Things a Fire Claim Adjuster Does? - 15th June 19
How To Find A Trustworthy Casino? - 15th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video - 14th June 19
Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! - 14th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video - 14th June 19
The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China - 14th June 19
Keeping the Online Gaming Industry in Line - 14th June 19
How Acquisitions Affect Global Stocks - 14th June 19
Please Don’t Buy the Dip in Nvidia or Other Chip Stocks - 14th June 19
A Big Thing in Investor Education is Explainer Videos - 14th June 19
IRAN - The Next American War - 13th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match Contest - 13th June 19
Top Best VPN Services You Can Choose For Your iPhone - 13th June 19
Tory Leadership Contest Betting Markets Forecast - Betfair - 13th June 19
US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation - 13th June 19
Which Stocks Will Lead The Cannabis Rebound? - 13th June 19
The Privatization of US Indo-Pacific Vision - Project 2049, Armitage, Budget Ploys and Taiwan Nexus - 12th June 19
Gold Price Breaks to the Upside - 12th June 19
Top Publicly Traded Casino Company Stocks for 2019 - 12th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - 12th June 19
Why Blue-Chip Dividend Stocks Aren’t as Safe as You Think - 12th June 19
Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Stock Market Top Pattern Should Form - 12th June 19
FTSE 100: A Top European Index - 12th June 19
Gold Surprise! - 11th June 19
How Forex Indicators are Getting Even More Attention in the Market? - 11th June 19
Stock Market Storm Clouds on the Horizon - 11th June 19
Is Your Financial Security Based On A Double Aberration? - 11th June 19
What If Stocks Are Wrong About Interest Rate Cuts? - 11th June 19
US House Prices Yield Curve, Debt, QE4EVER! - 11th June 19
Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone - 11th June 19
U.S. Dollar Stall is Good for Commodities - 11th June 19
Fed Running Out of Time and Conventional Weapons - 11th June 19
Trade Wars Propelling Stock Markets to New Highs - 11th June 19
Best Travel Bags for Summer Holidays 2019, Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt, tactical - 11th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

UK General Election 2017 Spread and Exchange Betting Market Opportunities

ElectionOracle / Spread Betting Jun 06, 2017 - 05:13 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

With the opinion polls all over the as illustrated by the pollster based Conservative Party seats forecasts wide range from 305 to 385. Where it would be great if one could bet against the pollsters! i.e. ring up YouGov and go LONG on their forecast of Conservative 305 seats and SHORT of their Labour 267 seats. Of course they would never do that, as they clearly don't put their money where their mouths are, instead without consequence continue to pump out headline grabbing seats forecasts as demanded by the mainstream media to sell copy.


Whilst I recently concluded in my UK election forecast conclusion on the basis of the sum of my analysis of the past 6 weeks which aims to repeat the accuracy of Trump 2016, EU Referendum 2016 and GE2015.

UK General Election 2017 Final Seats Per Party Forecast Conclusion

So on the basis of my forecast conclusion and with 3 full days to go until the polls close the search is on for spread and exchange betting market opportunities.

FIRSTLY, understand that trading markets, betting, gambling are HIGH RISK activities. And a forecast is NOT written in stone, it is what I deem to be the most probable. And most gamblers tend to lose in the long run with losses can exceeding deposits. So if you don't have the stomach to take a loss then DO NOT TRADE OR BET!

My primary UK election forecast expectation is for the Tories to win the election on 358 seats, a 66 seat majority.

Spread Betting Market

My preferred vehicles for betting on elections are the betting markets such as the spread betters and exchange markets.

The current prices being quoted by the spread better Financial Spreads are :

(losses can exceed deposits)

Therefore the Tories are currently trading at 365 against my forecast of 358, which at the moment does not present much of an spread betting opportunity. However market volatility is very high i.e. here are the spread betting prices from just a couple of weeks ago :

And the following graph further illustrates Conservative seats market volatility :

Therefore I expect volatility in the wake of for instance YouGov's crazy polls to deliver market opportunities both in the countdown and in the immediate aftermath of the UK General election result, just as occurred during the US Presidential Election and the EU Referendum.

So it could be worth keeping a close eye on the spread betters for significant deviations from my forecast. One of the best strategies is to use stop and limit orders, i.e. for a trade to be executed when a market price hits a particular level which saves one having to constantly monitor a market. Again do remember that betting is high risk and losses can exceed deposits.

BetFair Exchange Market

Betfair is another favourite of mine as it presents a myriad of betting options. So having scoured the Betfair market then these are the bets that have caught my attention -

Size of Conservative Majority

The forecast majority is 66 therefore an high reward profit potential exists given the price of 6.4 for 50-74 seats. However given the tightness of the ranges then there would be a need for smaller hedging bets on either side of the expected range i.e. 25 to 49 and 75 to 99 seats.

For example

£100 on 50 to 74 should be hedged with £20 on 50-74 and £20 on 75 to 99

Total Conservatives Seats

The opportunity here is a lot tougher as the forecast of 358 is towards the bottom of the range on offer. So this market favours an error in the forecast being to the upside rather than to the down side, for instance not towards what house prices are forecasting (342). Also the profit potential is poor at just £95 per £100 bet. Whilst a bet on the forecast being out by 10 seats would favour the 300 to 349 seats bet price of 3.75. So similarly two bets to cover the range 300 to 400 is probably the better trade here so as to hedge the forecast being wrong on the downside.

Conservatives Under 370.5 seats

Again the odds are nothing to shout about but the distance of 371 to 358 gives a 13 seat margin of error for a price of 1.79. So maybe a smaller hedge bet to cover being wrong on the downside.

And once more whilst today's prices may not be great, however polling induced market volatility could present a series of opportunities over the coming days, so these final days and hours until the results are known is the time period to keep a close eye on the betting markets.

And I will likely once more publish a list of my 'winning' election positions after the election just as I had for the US Presidential election.

And remember not to get carried away! Don't bet more than you can afford to lose because it is a gamble!

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my latest analysis and to our youtube channel for videos in the BrExit War series.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules