General Election Latest Opinion Polls and Betting Market Forecasts

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Jun 08, 2017 - 05:54 AM GMT

The 2017 General Election has proved to be one of the most volatile elections in terms of the polls for decades, which has seen the opinion polls based forecasters literally playing pin the tail on the donkey since Theresa May called the BrExit election. Virtually all of the pollsters started the campaign by forecasting a Tory landslide Conservative election victory of over 400 seats that mostly persisted until barely to 2 weeks ago as the following table illustrates:

UK General Election Forecasts - May 2017

Forecasts	Date	Tory	Labour	Lib	SNP
YouGov	16th May	361	213
Lord Ashcroft	12th May	412
Electoral Calculus .co.uk	5th May	404	171	8	45
Election Forecast .co.uk	10th May	411	158	8	53
Forecastuk.org.uk	10th May	383	183	8	52
Spread Betting Markets (IG)	12th May	397	160

Whilst I repeatedly reminded that the pollsters had been consistently wrong for every major election since 2010 and that it was highly probable that they were wrong again as illustrated by my following video:

And where subsequently the pollsters have exhibited extreme volatility in their poll numbers that has translated into a forecast of seats range for the Tories from 302 to 420. Whilst here are the final seat forecasts just prior to today's vote, including my own based on the sum of my analysis of the past 6 weeks and separately based on my house prices based forecast which proved by far the most reliable forecaster for the outcome of the 2015 General Election.

UK General Election Final Forecasts

Forecasts	Date	Tory	Labour	Lib	SNP
Nadeem Walayat - Forecast Conclusion	4th June	358	212	12	46
Nadeem Walayat - House Prices	3rd June	342
YouGov	7th June	302	269	3	48
Lord Ashcroft	6th June	357
Electoral Calculus .co.uk	6th June	361	216	3	48
Election Forecast .co.uk	6th June	375	198	8	36
Forecastuk.org.uk	6th June	350	225	8	44
Spread Betting Markets (IG)	7th June	371	199	12	46
BBC Exit Poll - 10pm	8th June
Actual Result - 3am	9th June

As is usually the case most of the pollsters tend to cluster around one another, and where the betting markets just tend to follow what the pollsters are implying in terms of polling percentages converted into seats. The only real outlier for this election is YouGov which has consistently been discounting the Tory seats total by about 50 to 60 seats compared to the other polls based seats forecasts.

But YouGov being YouGov always slip in a get out of jail card for apparently they have TWO forecasts posted on their site at the same time, one as stated above and another posted just a few hours before the polling stations opened stating that they expected the Tories would be be returned with an increased majority. Which once more illustrates the point that pollsters such as YouGov are bullshit artists! How can anyone make an informed decision based on the pollsters if they are forecasting two significantly different outcomes at the same time!

Whilst here is the analysis towards my forecast conclusion which unlike YouGov did actually correctly forecast the outcomes of the UK 2015 general election, EU referendum and Trump!

So in summary my UK General Election 2017 forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win the election with a 66 seat majority by increasing their seats total from 331 to 358. Whilst I expect Labour to drop 20 seats to 212 with the Lib Dems gaining 4 to 12, and I expect the SNP to lose 10 seats, dropping from 56 to 46.

And it won't be long before the BBC's exit poll gives an strong indication of what the result could be.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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