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Urgent Stock Market Message

General Election Latest Opinion Polls and Betting Market Forecasts

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Jun 08, 2017 - 05:54 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


The 2017 General Election has proved to be one of the most volatile elections in terms of the polls for decades, which has seen the opinion polls based forecasters literally playing pin the tail on the donkey since Theresa May called the BrExit election. Virtually all of the pollsters started the campaign by forecasting a Tory landslide Conservative election victory of over 400 seats that mostly persisted until barely to 2 weeks ago as the following table illustrates:

UK General Election Forecasts - May 2017

Forecasts Date Tory Labour Lib SNP
YouGov 16th May
Lord Ashcroft 12th May
Electoral Calculus 5th May
Election Forecast 10th May
53 10th May
Spread Betting Markets (IG) 12th May


Whilst I repeatedly reminded that the pollsters had been consistently wrong for every major election since 2010 and that it was highly probable that they were wrong again as illustrated by my following video:

And where subsequently the pollsters have exhibited extreme volatility in their poll numbers that has translated into a forecast of seats range for the Tories from 302 to 420. Whilst here are the final seat forecasts just prior to today's vote, including my own based on the sum of my analysis of the past 6 weeks and separately based on my house prices based forecast which proved by far the most reliable forecaster for the outcome of the 2015 General Election.

UK General Election Final Forecasts

Forecasts Date Tory Labour Lib SNP
Nadeem Walayat - Forecast Conclusion 4th June
Nadeem Walayat - House Prices 3rd June
YouGov 7th June
Lord Ashcroft 6th June
Electoral Calculus 6th June
Election Forecast 6th June
36 6th June
Spread Betting Markets (IG) 7th June
BBC Exit Poll - 10pm 8th June
Actual Result - 3am 9th June

As is usually the case most of the pollsters tend to cluster around one another, and where the betting markets just tend to follow what the pollsters are implying in terms of polling percentages converted into seats. The only real outlier for this election is YouGov which has consistently been discounting the Tory seats total by about 50 to 60 seats compared to the other polls based seats forecasts.

But YouGov being YouGov always slip in a get out of jail card for apparently they have TWO forecasts posted on their site at the same time, one as stated above and another posted just a few hours before the polling stations opened stating that they expected the Tories would be be returned with an increased majority. Which once more illustrates the point that pollsters such as YouGov are bullshit artists! How can anyone make an informed decision based on the pollsters if they are forecasting two significantly different outcomes at the same time!

Whilst here is the analysis towards my forecast conclusion which unlike YouGov did actually correctly forecast the outcomes of the UK 2015 general election, EU referendum and Trump!

UK General Election 2017 Final Seats Per Party Forecast Conclusion

So in summary my UK General Election 2017 forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win the election with a 66 seat majority by increasing their seats total from 331 to 358. Whilst I expect Labour to drop 20 seats to 212 with the Lib Dems gaining 4 to 12, and I expect the SNP to lose 10 seats, dropping from 56 to 46.

And it won't be long before the BBC's exit poll gives an strong indication of what the result could be.

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2017 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2018 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

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