Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK House Prices Momentum Crash Threatens Mini Bear Market 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Perfect Storm - This Fourth Turning has Over a Decade of Continuous Storms to Come - James_Quinn
3.UK House Prices Momentum Crash Warns of 2017 Bear Market - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Billionaire Investors Backing A Marijuana Boom In 2017 - OilPrice_Com
5.Emerging Markets & Basic Materials Stocks Breaking Out Together - Rambus_Chartology
6.Global Currency Reserve At Risk - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Gold and Silver: Your Stomach Is Probably Wrenching Right Now - The_Gold_Report
8.Warning: The Fed Is Preparing to Crash the Financial System Again - Graham_Summers
9.Basic Materials and Commodities Analysis and Trend Forecasts - Rambus_Chartology
10.Discover Why A Major American Revolution Is Brewing - Harry_Dent
Last 7 days
EIA Weekly Report and Crude Oil - 19th Aug 17
4 Insights for Adjusting Your Portfolio in a Rate-hike Environment - 19th Aug 17
Gold Direction Indicator - 19th Aug 17
Historical Inevitability and Gold and Silver Ownership - 19th Aug 17
You Are Being Lied To About “Low” Gold Demand - 19th Aug 17
This is Why Cocoa's Crash Was a Perfect Setup - 19th Aug 17
Gold, Silver Consolidate On Last Weeks Gains, Palladium Surges 36% YTD To 16 Year High - 19th Aug 17
North Korea Is Far From Being Irrational… It Has A Plan - 18th Aug 17
US Civil War - FUNCTIONAL ILLITERATES TRYING TO ERASE HISTORY - 18th Aug 17
Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High Over $4,400 As It Catches Paypal In Total Market Cap - 17th Aug 17
3 Psychological Ingredients behind Great Web Content - 17th Aug 17
The War on Cash - Rogoff, Orwell and Kafka - 17th Aug 17
The Stock Market Guns of August, Trade Set-Up & Removing your Rose Tinted Glasses - 16th Aug 17
Stocks, Bonds, Interest Rates, and Serbia, Camp Kotok 2017 - 16th Aug 17
U.S. Stock Market: Sunrise ... Sunset - 16th Aug 17
The Next Tech Crash Could Delay Your Retirement by a Decade - 15th Aug 17
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Nearing Breakout - 15th Aug 17
North Korea Showdown: Pivotal Market Turning Point - 15th Aug 17
Tech Stocks DOT COM Bubble Do-Over? - 14th Aug 17
Deep State Conspiracy or Chaos - 14th Aug 17
From the Trans-Atlantic Axis and the Trans-Asian Axis - 14th Aug 17
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Underway - 14th Aug 17
The Islamic State Jihadi Pivot to Asia - 13th Aug 17
Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold - 13th Aug 17
North Korean Chinese Proxy vs US Military Empire Trending Towards Nuclear War! - 12th Aug 17
Gold Stocks Coiled Spring - 12th Aug 17
Neil Howe: The Amazon-Walmart Rivalry Will Determine the Future of Retail - 12th Aug 17
How to Alton Towers Half Price Discount Entry 2017 and 2018, Any Time, No Pre-Booking! - 12th Aug 17
Top 3 Technical Trading Tools Part 2: Relative Strength Index (RSI) - 11th Aug 17
What Makes Women Better Investors - 11th Aug 17
Crude Oil Price Precious Metals Link in August - 11th Aug 17
Influencer Marketing Predictions All Businesses Should Take Into Account - 11th Aug 17
Really Bad Ideas - Government Debt Isn’t Actually Debt - 10th Aug 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See - Free

Last Week’s Rally in Gold Stocks Erased

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017 Jul 26, 2017 - 02:26 PM GMT

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Commodities

Gold, silver and the USD Index didn’t do much in yesterday’s trading, but that was not the case with mining stocks. The divergence between gold stocks and gold was particularly visible and the implications are once again particularly important.

Let’s take a look at the charts, starting with the HUI Index(gold stock chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).


The gold stocks’ reaction to the recent USD weakness and gold’s previous move higher has been weak for many days, but Monday’s session took the weakness to the extreme. Gold ended the session more or less unchanged and this lack of a continuation of the rally was enough for the HUI Index to erase almost the entire previous week of gains.

This could have been understandable if the general stock market had also declined substantially, pushing all stocks – including miners – much lower. However, that was not the case. Miners had no good reason to decline – and yet they did. It doesn’t get much clearer than that as far as the degrees of underperformance and weakness are concerned.

Please note that gold stocks declined right after the move to the combination of strong resistance lines and their reversal triggered a sell signal from the Stochastic Indicator. The implications are clearly bearish.

If the above wasn’t enough, the decline took place on big volume, while the previous daily upswings took place on low volume. The price-volume analysis clearly confirms that the July upswing was a counter-trend correction and that down is the true direction in which the market is heading.

Let’s keep in mind that the additional significant confirmation comes from the weekly volume readings (the text below is a quote from yesterday’s Gold Trading Alert), but it’s impact is present also today – and it will likely continue to be present in the following weeks:

The volume that we saw last week was extremely low, especially when compared to the sizes of previous volumes. Theoretically, it’s a strong bearish sign as it shows that the buying power is next to non-existent.

We marked similar situations with red arrows – as you see, the weekly upswings that took place on very low volume were usually followed by huge declines. The only exception that we can see on the above chart (1 out of 5) is not quite comparable as it was the session right at the bottom and the current one is the second after the bottom, which changes a lot – the volume should be picking up right now, but it isn’t. Back in December 2013 it was the first candlestick of the rally – so the sellers might have given up and the buyers simply were able to push the market higher. Besides, trading is generally limited in the second half of December each year as it’s the holiday season.

So, it seems that in all comparable cases, huge declines followed the low-volume rallies in mining stocks – will this time be any different? It doesn’t seem likely. The efficiency of this signal alone is something that makes the outlook very bearish for the following weeks.

Summing up, the implications of the (lack of) action in mining stocks in the previous days and their decline yesterday are bearish. In fact, yesterday’s decline theoretically shouldn’t have taken place as no decline was seen either in either gold or the main stock indices. Yet, it was seen and it serves as a strong bearish confirmation of multiple other medium-term bearish signals that we’ve been discussing in our alerts. The medium-term outlook remains bearish and any strength here – if we see it at all – is likely to be only temporary.

If you haven’t already signed up to our free gold newsletter, it may be a good idea to do so now – you’ll stay updated on our free articles (including the follow-ups to the above article) and you’ll also get 7 days of free access to our premium daily Gold Alerts as a starting bonus. Sign up today.

Thank you.

Sincerely,

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Tools for Effective Gold & Silver Investments - SunshineProfits.com
Tools für Effektives Gold- und Silber-Investment - SunshineProfits.DE

* * * * *

About Sunshine Profits

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife