Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Bitcoin War Begins – Bitcoin Cash Rises 50% While Bitcoin Drops $1,000 In 24 Hours - Jeff_Berwick
2.Fragile Stock Market Bull in a China Shop -James_Quinn
3.Sheffield Leafy Suburbs Tree Felling's Triggering House Prices CRASH! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Bank of England Hikes UK Interest Rates 100%, Reversing BREXIT PANIC Cut! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Government Finances and Gold - Cautionary Tale told in Four Charts - Michael_J_Kosares
6.Gold Stocks Winter Rally - Zeal_LLC
7.The Stock Market- From Here to Infinity? - Plunger
8.Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - MarketsToday
9.Electronic Gold: The Deep State’s Corrupt Threat to Human Prosperity and Freedom - Stewart_Dougherty
10.Finally, The Fall Of The House Of Saud - Jim_Willie_CB
Last 7 days
Stock Market Final Thrust is Likely - 17th Dec 17
Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here’s a Strong Signal from the Economic Dashboard - 17th Dec 17
As Bitcoin Breaks All-Time Highs Near $18,000 Its Future Has Never Been So Uncertain - 17th Dec 17
Best Time / Month to Buy a Used Car From a UK Dealer - 16th Dec 17
Relief Rally in Gold Mining Stocks - 16th Dec 17
Amid Bad Fundamentals, Gold Sector Rally May Have Begun - 16th Dec 17
Gold Bullish on US Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Dec 17
The LORAX Explains What Happened to Sheffield's Street Trees 2017 - 16th Dec 17
Bitcoin Trading Alert: Bitcoin Pauses – Will Appreciation Follow? - 16th Dec 17
SanDisk Ultra 128gb 100mbs Micro SD Card for Smartphone's Speed Test - 15th Dec 17
Inflation is Spiking Globally… Bond Bubble Bursts in 3… 2… - 15th Dec 17
Sheffield's 'Real' LORAX Defending the Trees From the Labour City Council Patrol Units - 15th Dec 17
Stock Market Decline Signals are Near - 15th Dec 17
Santa Is Putting Christmas On The Blockchain And Saving Billions - 14th Dec 17
The Unprotected, the Protected, the Vulnerably Protected Classes—Which Are You? - 14th Dec 17
Gold’s Upside Target - 14th Dec 17
Year-end US Interest Rate Hike Again Proves To Be Launchpad For Gold Price - 14th Dec 17
2 Charts That Might Define the Fed’s Jerome Powell Era - 13th Dec 17
UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall - 13th Dec 17
Stock Market Elliott Wave Forecasts - Is the World coming to the end? - 13th Dec 17
A Method Traders Can Use to Confirm an Elliott Wave Count - 13th Dec 17
Best Time / Month of Year to BUY a USED Car is DECEMBER, UK Analysis - 13th Dec 17
A Former Wall Street Veteran: Good Traders Are Born, Not Trained - 12th Dec 17
Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts to Continue? - 12th Dec 17
Masters of Economic and Political Illusion – in Taxes, Debt, Government, and Markets - 12th Dec 17
Approved Used Land Rover Main Dealer Real Customer Buying Guide - Hunters, Chester - 12th Dec 17
Gold Price 100% Bullish Signal - 12th Dec 17
Epic Stock Market & Fixed Income Bubble Will Not End Well - 12th Dec 17
Bitcoin can be stolen. Although Can’t be hacked - 11th Dec 17
Have Stocks Reached A Permanently Rigged Plateau? - 11th Dec 17
Trying To Beat The System Is A Fatally Flawed Investment Strategy - 11th Dec 17
Is This The Beginning Of The Next Silver Rush? - 11th Dec 17
The Dow Gold Ratio - 11th Dec 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Traders Workshop

Bitcoin Achieved What The Gold Market Never Could & Never Will?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017 Dec 04, 2017 - 02:38 PM GMT

By: Sol_Palha

Commodities

There is no absurdity so palpable but that it may be firmly planted in the human head if you only begin to inculcate it before the age of five, by constantly repeating it with an air of great solemnity. Arthur Schopenhauer

Gold bottomed in 2002, and it took nine years for its trade to a high of roughly $1900 (September 2011). Contrast that to Bitcoin, in less than 1/3rd of the amount of time it is showing gains of more than 11,000%.  It took nine years for Gold to show gains of roughly 700% and Gold has given up a substantial portion of those gains.


We bailed out of Gold in 2011 for two reasons:

  • Gold was trading in the extremely overbought ranges, and the Gold Bug Camp could not contain their glee; they thought the sky was the limit. Instead, they found out that the Ground was a lot closer.
  • The masses were not embracing Gold, and they refused to treat or view it as a currency.

 Only those from the hard money camp continued to believe that Gold was a currency,  but sadly their numbers are dwindling with the passage of each day. The masses view Bitcoin as cool and secure; a feat Gold has struggled to achieve and is not likely to achieve in the foreseeable future.  Whether this is true or not, hardly matters for when it comes to investing, perceptions are all that matter.

Does this mean the precious metals sector is dead?
Well, that depends on what one means by dead.   Gold has performed abysmally since (it topped out)  2011.  The money supply soared, and Gold tanked, not exactly a good sign. In doing the opposite of what was expected from it, Gold cemented the view that it was an ancient relic that has no place in today’s monetary system. We are speaking in terms of Mass Perception. What we think, matters not; we follow trends, and we don’t waste time trying to look at things from a personal vantage point.  There are many reasons for Gold’s underperformance after 2011; one of them was the “velocity of the money supply” which all but stalled after 2011. However, the masses don’t waste time on details like this. They look for simple cause and effect answers. Money supply soared, Gold did nothing, and hence Gold is a waste of time.  A bit simplistic but that’s the mass mindset for you.  However, looking forward some factors could limit Gold’s lustre

Demand for Gold in India continues to drop

India's gold consumption is likely to drop to its lowest in eight years in 2017, hit by government moves to make bullion trading more transparent and by faltering demand from some rural areas, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Thursday.

Evidence of weaker appetite in a country where gold is used in everything from investment to wedding gifts could drag on global prices that have been hovering near their highest in three weeks. India is the word's No 2 consumer of gold behind China. Full Story

The Dollar appears to be putting in a base

The dollar topped in early 2017 and what did Gold do? Absolutely nothing; take a look at the chart below. Instead of surging to new highs it could not even trade past its July 2016 highs.  The dollar, in contrast, has been going through a well deserved period of consolidation after mounting a stunning rally that started in 2011.  It tested support and held, and as long as it does not close below 90 on a monthly basis, the outlook will remain bullish.  Consequently, a monthly close above 94.50 will open the possibility for a test of the old highs. 

 The dollar topped in Jan of 2017 as mentioned above but if one looked at the chart of Gold only, one would think that the dollar hardly pulled back. The reaction was boring, to say the least, and to make matters worse; Gold put in a lower high than it did in July of 2016, even though the dollar traded below its 2016 lows. 

Gold has also been putting a series of lows since 2013, and during this period it has not managed to trade above $1350 for a significant period.   A fortress of strength comes into play in the $1350 ranges, and unless it can trade above this level on a monthly basis, the outlook will remain Neutral to bearish. 

Conclusion

The dollar is getting ready to mount a rally, demand for Gold is declining, and Gold has been unable to trade past $1350 even in the face of a weaker dollar.   Then we have the Bitcoin market, which the masses (especially millennia’s) find to be a lot more exciting and rewarding than Gold. All these factors don’t bode well for Gold.  It appears that Gold is likely to test the 1000 ranges unless it decides to diverge and trend upwards in tandem with the dollar.   Bitcoin, on the other hand, is now in the feeding frenzy stage, so this market is ripe for a correction. However, the upward move is still not over. After a hard correction, Bitcoin is likely to resume its upward trend.

Gold will probably never experience a move akin to that of Bitcoin, but that does not mean it won’t make for a good investment one day. For now, the trend is neutral;  a weekly close below $1100 will darken the outlook for Gold, but a monthly close above $1350 will indicate that Gold is ready to trend higher.

Word to the wise; never fall in love with any investment.  In the end, it’s the trend that you should pay attention to, for no sector can trend upwards forever.  The odds of the Dow trading to 29,000 are far better than of Gold trading to $1900.

Iteration, like friction, is likely to generate heat instead of progress.
George Eliot

by Sol Palha

www.tacticalinvestor.com

Sol Palha is a market analyst and educator who uses Mass Psychology, Technical Analysis and Esoteric Cycles to keep you on the right side of the market. He and his partners are on the web at www.tacticalinvestor.com.

© 2017 Copyright Sol Palha- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife