Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Learn to Spot Reliable Trading Setups: ANY Market, Any Market Time Frame - 21st Oct 19
How To Secure A Debt Consolidation Loan Even If You Have A Bad Credit Rating - 21st Oct 19
Kids Teepee Tent Fun from Amazon by Lavievert Review - 15% Discount! - 21st Oct 19
Stock Market Stalls: Caution Ahead - 21st Oct 19
Stock Market Crash Setup? - 21st Oct 19
More Stock Market Congestion (Distribution) - 21st Oct 19
Revisiting “Black Monday Stock Market Crash October 19 1987 - 21st Oct 19
Land Rover Discovery Sports Out of Warranty Top Money Saving Tips - 21st Oct 19
Investing lessons from the 1987 Stock Market Crash From Who Beat it - 20th Oct 19
Trade Wars: Facts And Fallacies - 20th Oct 19
The Gold Stocks Correction and What Lays Ahead - 19th Oct 19
Gold during Global Monetary Ease - 19th Oct 19
US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally - 18th Oct 19
The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun - 18th Oct 19
British Pound Brexit Chaos GBP Trend Forecast - 18th Oct 19
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment - 17th Oct 19
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles - 17th Oct 19
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report - 17th Oct 19
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 16th Oct 19
This Is Not a Money Printing Press - 16th Oct 19
Online Casino Operator LeoVegas is Optimistic about the Future - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video - 16th Oct 19
$100 Silver Has Come And Gone - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 - 16th Oct 19
10 Best Trading Schools and Courses for Students - 16th Oct 19
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stock Market Roller Coaster Crash Ride Down to Dow Forecast 23,000

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Feb 09, 2018 - 05:30 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

The stock market like a roller coaster rockets higher one day only to plunge lower the next. That is what this week has been like, a roller coaster ride. Starting the week with a Monday late session 1175 point plunge, bouncing Tuesday by 570 points to 24,912. Taking a breather on Wednesday by closing steady at 24,893, then plunged once more yesterday (Thursday) by over 1000 points, closing at 23,860, with the Dow now down over 10% from its 2018 high.


My longstanding view is that January's stock market rally was unsustainable and that if the market did not come to its senses soon could even be heading for a 1929 moment, where it not only crashes, but crashes and burns into a 90% wipeout bear market. Whilst my forecast expectations as of the start of the year were for the Dow to target a correction to 23,000.

23 Jan 2018 - Stocks Bull Market Appears to have a Destiny With 1929

Clearly given the ongoing rally the market is continuing to deviate from my expectations. For me this is a RED DANGER WARNING FLAG! That I need to do in-depth analysis of to try and get a grip with, and even then I may not be able to wrap my head around the markets current behaviour. However, the thought that is increasingly coming to mind is 1929. You know what happened in and after 1929, the stock market did not just crash, it crashed and burned for three long years from a peak of around 390 to a low 40!

And so by the start of February the stock market started to correct which prompted my following update that reiterated my expectations for the Dow to target 23,000 which despite this weeks plunge remains pending.

06 Feb 2018 - Trump Bubble Bursts, Stock Market Panic Dow 1175 Point Crash Analysis

We'll you were WARNED! As my opening analysis of the year pointed out that for the stocks bull market to remain healthy then IT MUST CORRECT, and the worst thing that the stock market could do was to continue on rallying in its increasingly exponential trend towards a mania bubble peak which would ultimately replicate what was happening to Bitcoin at the time in the stock market indices, and thus my conclusion was that a rational market would seek to correct it's already overbought state by trending from the then near 25k level down to 23,000 over the next couple of months or so.

Dow Stock Market Crash Dow Forcast Target

So What is Likely to Happen Next ?

Well we are likely to continue to see wild roller coaster swings, up one day and down the next with the trend trajectory remaining towards my target of 23,000, and as yesterday was a strong down day, then today (Friday) should be a strong up day for the Dow at least. As for what happens after 23,000 is achieved, well for that I will need to fully evaluate the damage done to the market, not from the February's crash but by Januarys rally, whether the nose dive to 23k is enough to fix a broken stock market or whether the market needs to go much, much lower. So ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter and youtube channel for my forthcoming in-depth analysis and detailed stock market trend forecast.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules