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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stock Market’s Short Term Downside Will be Limited

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Jun 19, 2018 - 02:05 PM GMT

By: Troy_Bombardia

Stock-Markets

Over the past 2 weeks I said that the stock market would face some short term downside (i.e. would swing sideways or fall a little). So far I’ve been right. The stock market has gone down a little bit (see S&P 500).


The Dow has gone down 5 days in a row. What’s particularly interesting is the fact that the Dow has fallen less than -0.5% during each of these down days.

In other words, the Dow is grinding downwards.

This is unusual because the stock market usually takes the staircase up and the elevator down.

Here are the historical cases in which the Dow fell 5 days in a row, while falling less than -0.5% each day.

Here’s what happened next to the Dow.

Notice how bullish the Dow’s forward returns are on a 2 week forward basis. Positive 84% of the time. This means that even if the stock market does fall a little more in the short term, the downside will be limited.

Here are the historical cases in which the Dow fell 5 days in a row, while falling less than -0.5% each day.

Here’s what happened next to the S&P 500.

Notice how the S&P 500’s forward returns are extremely bullish on a 3 week forward basis. Positive 95% of the time. This means that even if the stock market does fall a little more in the short term, the downside will be limited.

Click here to download the data in Excel.

Conclusion

This study suggests that the stock market could fall more in the short term, but this downside will be limited.

The S&P was positive in 18 out of 19 cases 3 weeks later. The only loss was very small: -0.5%

The logic behind this is simple. When the stock market is crashing, it doesn’t “grind downwards”. It’s supposed to crash. A “grind downwards” pattern isn’t bearish.

Click here for more market studies.

By Troy Bombardia

BullMarkets.co

I’m Troy Bombardia, the author behind BullMarkets.co. I used to run a hedge fund, but closed it due to a major health scare. I am now enjoying life and simply investing/trading my own account. I focus on long term performance and ignore short term performance.

Copyright 2018 © Troy Bombardia - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Troy_Bombardia Archive

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