Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Climate Change Mass Extinction - Birds, Bees and Bugs: Going Going Gone - Richard_Mills
2.A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! - Peter_Degraaf
3.Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 - F_F_Wiley
4.America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - Raymond_Matison
5.Gold Price Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
6.Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - Richard_Mills
8.Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - Jeb_Handwerger
9.Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - Troy_Bombardia
10.G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
How Crazy It Is to Short Gold with RSI Close to 30 - 16th Jul 18
Markets Pay Attention Moment - China’s Bubble Economy Ripe for Bursting - 16th Jul 18
Stock Market Uptrend Continues, But... - 16th Jul 18
Emerging Markets Could Be Starting A Relief Rally - 16th Jul 18
(Only) a Near-term Stock Market Top? - 16th Jul 18
Trump Fee-Fi-Foe-Fum Declares European Union America's Enemy! - 16th Jul 18
US Stocks Set For Further Advances As Q2 Earnings Start - 15th Jul 18
Stock Market vs. Gold, Long-term Treasury Yields, 10yr-2yr Yield Curve 3 Amigo's Update - 15th Jul 18
China vs the US - The Road to War - 14th Jul 18
Uncle Sam’s Debt-Money System Is Immoral, Tantamount to Theft - 14th Jul 18
Staying in a Caravan - UK Summer Holidays 2018 - Cayton Bay Hoseasons Holiday Park - 14th Jul 18
Gold Stocks Summer Lows - 14th Jul 18
Trump US Trade War With China, Europe Consequences, Implications and Forecasts - 13th Jul 18
Gold Standard Requirements & Currency Crisis - 13th Jul 18
Focus on the Greenback, Will USD Fall Below Euro 1.6? - 13th Jul 18
Stock Market Outlook 2018 - Bullish or Bearish - 13th Jul 18
Rising Inflation is Not Bearish for Stocks - 13th Jul 18
Bitcoin Picture Less Than Pretty - 13th Jul 18
How International Observers Undervalue the Chinese Bond Market - 13th Jul 18
Stocks Trying to Break Higher Again, Will They? - 12th Jul 18
The Rise and Fall of Global Trade – Redux - 12th Jul 18
Corporate Earnings Q2 2018 Will Probably be Strong. What This Means for Stocks - 12th Jul 18
Is the Relative Strength in Gold Miners to Gold Price Significant? - 12th Jul 18
Live Cattle Commodity Trading Analysis - 12th Jul 18
Gold’s & Silver’s Reversals’ Reversal - 12th Jul 18
The Value of Bitcoin - 11th Jul 18
America a Nation Built on Lies - 11th Jul 18
China, Asia and Emerging Markets Could Result In Chaos - 11th Jul 18
Bullish Gold Markets in the Big Picture? - 11th Jul 18
A Public Bank for Los Angeles? City Council Puts It to the Voters - 11th Jul 18
Yield Curve Inversion a Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril - 11th Jul 18
Argentina Should Scrap the Peso and Dollarize - 11th Jul 18
Can the Stock Market Close Higher For a Record 10th Year in a Row? - 11th Jul 18
Why Life Insurance Is A Must In Financial Planning - 9th Jul 18
Crude Oil Possibly Setting Up For A Big Downside Move - 9th Jul 18
BREAKING: New Tech Just Unlocked A Trillion Barrels Of Oil - 9th Jul 18
How Trade Wars Penalize Asian Currencies - 9th Jul 18
Another Stock Market Drop Next Week? - 9th Jul 18
Are the Stock Market Bulls Starting to Run? - 9th Jul 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

CRB Commodity Index Chart Analysis Trend Forecast

Commodities / CRB Index Jul 02, 2018 - 11:38 AM GMT

By: Austin_Galt

Commodities

Pattern – price has been in a downtrend since the 2011 high and the current price action looks corrective in nature. An ABC correction looks to be playing out with price still to put in a wave C high.

Bollinger Bands – price is back at the middle band and I am looking for support to kick in here.




Fibonacci – price is at the 50% angle which looks to be providing some resistance. Ultimately, I favour price to break this resistance and eventually top out around resistance from the 61.8% angle. If that occurs then I will be looking for the downtrend to resume with price trading between the 50% and 61.8% angles with the final low coming in at support from the 50% angle. Let’s see.

Horizontal lines – the upper line denotes the spike high of 488 set in November 2015 and I am looking for price to nudge above this level before turning back down, thereby creating a false break high. The lower band denotes the 2008 low of 322 and my expectation is that the final bear market low will trade marginally below this level. Why? The quarterly chart analysis will answer that.

Moving averages – in a bullish position with price now at support from the 200 monthly average (black). I am looking for price to rally up to the 100 monthly average (red) which I expect to act as resistance.

RSI – has dipped into weak territory but if I am correct in forecasting a rally now then a switch back into strong territory should be just around the corner.

Quarterly Chart

Pattern – I believe a massive 5 point broadening top is playing out with price still tracing out its way to a point 4 low.

Bollinger Bands – the bands are tightening with price finding resistance at the upper band and support at the middle band. I now expect price to rally and push into the upper band.

Fibonacci – price recently found support at the 76.4% angle and I am looking for a rally back up to around the 61.8% angle which should provide resistance. Personally, I favour price to fall a bit short of that 61.8% angle. Ultimately, I am looking for the final point 4 low to be around support from the 88.6% angle. Price recently clipped the 61.8% retracement level and a common occurrence is that price then rallies back up to the 38.2% retracement level which, in this case, lies at 496. After that, I am looking for the point 4 low to get down to around the 76.4% retracement level of 302. This level looks to intersect with the 88.6% angle in 2001 so that is some potential timing for the final point 4 low.

RSI – is marginally in strong territory and generally trending up. A good sign for the bulls.

Summing up – as we head into the second half of 2018 I believe the CRB Commodity Index is set for a solid rally in the vicinity of 20% from current levels.

By Austin Galt

www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

Austin Galt has previously worked as a stockbroker and investment banker while studying technical analysis for over two decades. He is also the author of the book White Night: A Colombian Odyssey

Email - info@thevoodooanalyst.com 

My website is www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

© 2018 Copyright  The Voodoo Analyst - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Austin Galt Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules