Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - James Burgess
3.Gold Price Trend Analysis - - Nadeem_Walayatt
4.The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - Richard_Mills
5.Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
7.Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - P_Radomski_CFA
8.Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - Ellen_Brown
9.Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - Zeal_LLC
10.The Post Bubble Market Contraction Thesis Receives Validation - Plunger
Last 7 days
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally Reaches .618 Retracement - 13th Nov 18
How to Create the Best Website Content and Generate Organic Traffic - 13th Nov 18
Why the Stock Market Will Pullback, Rally, and Roll Into a Bear Market - 13th Nov 18
Stock Markets Around the World are Crashing. What Not to Worry About? - 12th Nov 18
Cyclical Commodities Continue to Weaken, Gold Moves in Relation - 12th Nov 18
Olympus Tough TG-5 Camera Stuck or Dead Pixels, Rubbish Video Auto Focus - 12th Nov 18
5 Things That Precede Gold Price Major Bottoms - 12th Nov 18
Big US Stocks Q3 Fundamentals - 12th Nov 18
How "Free Money" Helped Create Sizzling Housing Market & REIT Gains - 12th Nov 18
One Direction More Likely for Bitcoin Price - 12th Nov 18
The Place of HSE Software in Today's Business - 12th Nov 18
Gold Asks: Are US Bonds Overvalued? - 11th Nov 18
Why the Stock Market Will Pullback Before Heading Higher - 11th Nov 18
GDX - Will you Buy This Hated Stock with Me? - 11th Nov 18
Christmas and Halloween LED Dynamic Projector Light Review - 11th Nov 18
Wall Street Veteran: Why I Don’t Lend to Family and Friends - 10th Nov 18
Stocks Breaking Higher, but Resistance Ahead - 10th Nov 18
Stock Market Was Supposed to “Crash Like 1987” - 10th Nov 18
SPX : The Incredibull Stock Market Plays On - 9th Nov 18
USD/CAD – The Moment of Truth Is Coming - 9th Nov 18
Is the Stock Market’s Rally “All Good To Go”? - 8th Nov 18
End in Sight for 'Unloved' Silver - 8th Nov 18
Outlook for Gold & Silver Precious Metals Sector is 'Positive' - 8th Nov 18
A Great Day for Metals as Platinum Price Breaks Out - 8th Nov 18
Future US Interest Rates, Financial Markets, and the FED - 8th Nov 18
Buying an Approved Used Land Rover From a Dealer - What You Need to Know! - 8th Nov 18
USD’s Weekly Breakout and the Gold Golden Spring - 7th Nov 18
Stocks Made a Post-crash Bounce. What’s Next? - 7th Nov 18
The Fourth Turning & War Of The Worlds - 7th Nov 18
The Economic Costs of Corruption in Philippines - 7th Nov 18
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally - 7th Nov 18
Britain's Unreliable Railways - Transpennine Express to Manchester Airport - 7th Nov 18
US Midterm Elections Forecast 2018 - 6th Nov 18
Stock Market’s Short term Outlook is Slightly Bearish, But Medium term is Bullish - 6th Nov 18
Financial Markets Are Making Faulty Assumptions about Growth & Resources - 6th Nov 18
Trump's War on the Fed - 6th Nov 18
Positive Implications for Gold Miners if Crude Oil Breaks Down - 6th Nov 18
Top Tips for Buying an Approved Used Land Rover from a Main Dealer - 6th Nov 18
What Every Investor Can Learn from Gamblers - 6th Nov 18
Is the Gold Bull Back? - 5th Nov 18
Gold Stocks Winter Rally - 5th Nov 18
The Cycle Saving Home Buyers $3,000 Per Year Just Ran Out Of Fuel - 5th Nov 18
Gold Stocks are Not Close to Bottom - 5th Nov 18
Stock Market Sharp Corrections and Bounces are Usually Followed by Retests - 5th Nov 18
London Dungeon Merlin Attraction Tourist Review - 5th Nov 18
Everything You Need to Know About Medicare in the United States - 5th Nov 18
Banking Stocks Index Signals Bank Failures - 4th Nov 18
IKEALand - New Theme Park Opens in Sheffield! - 4th Nov 18
London Eye Giant Ferris Wheel Ride Review - Top UK Tourist Attractions 2018 - 4th Nov 18
5 Major Factors Affecting the Direction of EUR/USD - 4th Nov 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Netflix Bulls and Bears Collide

Gold Moving Toward a Reset

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Jul 02, 2018 - 12:15 PM GMT

By: The_Gold_Report

Commodities

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss the fundamentals behind gold and the markets. Gold is the ultimate safe haven, for two simple reasons. First, its total aboveground supply only grows 1.4% per year, no matter what anyone does (and even this rate of increase is starting to fall as production levels have peaked). Second, gold is final settlement for the payment of obligations; it is universally accepted as itself, in physical form, not needing to be translated into someone else's currency.

In the current financial asset mania, with confidence in markets and central banks very high, markets are not much interested in safe havens and gold has been languishing. When investors become more risk averse, gold will go on its next big run. Current sentiment and market positioning correspond to what is typically a price low historically.


But a future big move in gold, in our view, is likely to correspond to a reset of global debt. Since the financial crisis of 2008/9, central banks have attempted to avoid a deflationary collapse by driving interest rates down to 5,000 year lows. A wave of defaults has been avoided as nearly any company and asset can be financed at low rates no matter what the creditworthiness. The result: a huge increase in debt, much of it of low quality.

Over the last 20 years, the IMF estimates that global debt has increased from $74 trillion to $238 trillion while the global economy has grown at about half that rate, from $36.5 trillion to $79.6 trillion. This process is creating financial claims on the real economy that far exceed the increase in production of goods and services.

Prior to 2007, the greatest rate of increase in debt was in the financial sector which, not surprisingly, became the epicenter of the crisis of 2008/9. Since the crisis, the greatest growth has occurred in the non-financial corporate and government sectors where we expect the next crisis will unfold.

The underlying driver of the next collapse is likely to be the manic creation of financial claims against the real economy that cannot be met. Your loan is someone's asset. The owner of that asset expects to be able to realize its worth in the real economy. In short, the financial claims and the real economy must reconcile and achieve relative parity. Instead, they are moving farther and farther apart.

There are now almost three dollars in creditor claims on the global economy for every dollar's worth of goods and services. The losers will be pensioners and savers generally because the coming reconciliation must result in a mark-down in the value of financial assets. Savings are deferred consumption but not deferred forever, as people retire.

Here is the graph for the U.S; debt and GDP were roughly equal in 1970. Since then, after Nixon left the gold standard in 1971, debt has grown three times faster than the economy. U.S. credit market debt is nearing $70 trillion against a $20 trillion economy that must support and service it.

Note the brief slowing in credit creation in 2008/9 when an expected deleveraging was defeated by central bank Quantitative Easing.

Unfortunately, growing debt has not underwritten accelerated economic growth. In fact, as debt has increased, its productivity in terms of economic growth has dwindled, probably due to the depressing effect of the debt itself. The following chart tracks real U.S. GDP growth per quarter. The steady downward trend is clear. The post war credit economy has lost momentum despite immense credit expansion and technological innovation.

We don't know for sure how the Federal Reserve will reconcile the outsized financial claims on the real economy. Will they allow corporate borrowers to default as interest rates rise? Or will they prevent widespread defaults and inflate the currency instead? Either way, savers lose. We believe investors will try to preserve their purchasing power by crowding into the comparatively very small gold market (currently $6.5 trillion in aboveground supply).

If we are right about a coming reset, where do you want your savings to be, in financial assets or gold?

This article is the collaboration of Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, and reflects the thinking that has helped make them successful gold investors. Rudi is the current Chairman and CEO of Seabridge and Jim is one of its largest shareholders. Disclaimer: The authors are not registered or accredited as investment advisors. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable but is not necessarily complete and accuracy is not guaranteed. Any securities mentioned on this site are not to be construed as investment or trading recommendations specifically for you. You must consult your own advisor for investment or trading advice. This article is for informational purposes only.

Disclosures:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The authors are wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in any aspect of the content preparation. The authors were not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the authors to publish or syndicate this article. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
2) Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony: we, or members of our immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: Seabridge Gold. We personally are, or members of our immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: Seabridge Gold.
3) Seabridge Gold is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article, until one week after the publication of the interview or article.

Charts provided by the authors.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules