Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - 21st Sep 19
Is Stock Market Price Revaluation Event About To Happen? - 21st Sep 19
Gold Leads, Will the Rest Follow? - 21st Sep 19
Are Cowboys Really Dreaming of... Electric Trucks? - 21st Sep 19
Gold among Negative-Yielding Bonds - 20th Sep 19
Panicky Fed Flooding Overnight Markets with Cash - 20th Sep 19
Uber Stock Price Will Crash on November 6 - 20th Sep 19
Semiconductor Stocks Sector Market & Economic Leader - 20th Sep 19
Learning Artificial Intelligence - What is a Neural Network? - 20th Sep 19
Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom - 20th Sep 19
Small Marketing Budget? No Problem! - 20th Sep 19
The Many Forex Trading Opportunities the Fed Day Has Dealt Us - 19th Sep 19
Fed Cuts Interest Rates and Gold Drops. Again - 19th Sep 19
Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video - 19th Sep 19
Baby Boomers Are the Worst Investors in the World - 19th Sep 19
Your $1,229 FREE Tticket to Elliott Market Analysis & Trading Set-ups - 19th Sep 19
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? - 19th Sep 19
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Long Term Gold and Currency Charts

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Sep 08, 2018 - 05:01 PM GMT

By: Rambus_Chartology

Commodities

Today I would like to update some of the PM charts we’ve been following to see how they’ve been progressing starting with the massive ten year H&S top on gold. Since the price action broke below the neckline several weeks ago it’s a week to week observation to see how the backtest is playing out. The backtest to the neckline comes in around the 1225 area with this weeks high at 1212.70 so the backtest held for another week. What we need to see next for the current move lower to continue is to see a new weekly close below the previous weekly low.


Below is a weekly bar chart for gold that goes all the way back to the beginning of the bull market in 2000.

Next is the 50 year chart for gold which puts the ten year H&S top in perspecitive.

This next chart for gold is the weekly line chart which shows its 2011 bear market downtrend channel. Our current impulse leg down actually began in April of this year when the price action touched the top rail of the 2011 bear market downtrend channel and the top rail of the 2 1/2 year triangle. Currently the bottom rail of the 2 1/2 year triangle and the 65 week ema intersects at the 1270 area which would be maximum resistance.

Next is a short term daily chart for the GDX which shows the impulse move down from the February bearish rising wedge.

This next chart for the GDX shows three dominate chart patterns starting with the 2016 H&S top reversal pattern, the February bearish rising wedge we just looked at on the daily chart above and the 1 1/2 year triangle consolidation pattern. These three pattern are building out the 2016 downtrend channel we’ve been following. The black arrows show the 1 1/2 triangle as a halfway pattern with the first led down off the 2016 top and our current 2018 impulse leg down moving at the same angle lower so far.

It’s hard to believe its been 8 weeks already since we looked at the breakout below the bottom rail of the year and a half triangle as shown by the red circle which showed a nice clean breakout. In 2015 when the GDX bottomed it built out a double bottom reversal pattern with the double bottom hump at the 16.25 area which might come into play as initial support. The HUI is already testing its 2015 double bottom hump currently.

I wasn’t going to show you this last chart for the GDX because I don’t think the bottom rail of the 2011 bear market will ever be hit but the 2011 bear market downtrend channel is still firmly in place. The bear market began with the perfectly formed massive four year H&S top as shown by the neckline symmetry line. The breakout and backtest to the neckline was short and sweet with the infamous 2013 runaway gap showing up several weeks after the backtest was completed.

Initially we were looking at a possible bullish rising wedge that was forming on the US dollar. That pattern failed when the price action traded back down below the top rail which was disappointing, but there was still a good chance that we would see some type of rising pattern because the initial pattern was a rising wedge. The morphing process is still taking place which now looks like a possible bullish expanding rising wedge building out. Note the small H&S bottom building out at the 4th reversal point which should give the US dollar the energy it needs to at least rally back up to the top of the trading range.

Here is what the possible bullish expanding rising wedge looks like on a longer term daily chart. I know it doesn’t feel like it right now but we know that when a pattern slopes up in the direction of the uptrend it shows a stock to be very strong. If this pattern plays out it’s telling us the US dollar is going to be very strong.

If gold has been trading in a bear market downtrend channel since 2011 then there is a good chance that the US dollar has been trading in a 2011 uptrend channel which this combo chart below shows.

This last chart for tonight is a daily look at the USDU which is a more equally weighted index for the US dollar. The last time we looked at this chart the price action was building out a triangle above the neckline which was completed with a big breakout gap above the original top rail which is the black dashed line with a backtest. It now looks like the triangle is morphing into a bigger bullish rising wedge consolidation pattern. We’ll know more when the USDU trades up to the top rail and how it interacts with it. With most of the other important currencies of the world breaking down from their respective large consolidation patterns it makes perfect sense that the US dollar will have a strong impulse move to the upside.

Have a great weekend and all the best.

All the best

Rambus Chartology

http://rambus1.com

FREE TRIAL - http://rambus1.com/?page_id=10

© 2018 Copyright Rambus- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Rambus Chartology Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules