Betting Markets Confirm Theresa May Safe From Tory Leadership Challenge this Week

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Last week Theresa May's disastrous BrExit deal with the European Union was released, one of having watered down virtually every British red line to nothing, that set the ball rolling on a Tory party leadership challenge with dozens of public announcements of letters being sent to the Tory 1922 backbenchers committee with 48 needed to trigger a challenge. My analysis at the time concluded with several possible BrExiteer contenders ready to take back control from the European Union with a Clean Brexit rather than the NO Brexit deal as my following video illustrates:

However, the latest from the betting markets (Betfair) is confirming media speculation that the challenge to her leadership is evaporating for at least the remainder of this week.

Theresa May - Exit Dates

Sunday 18th November - 4am

20th November - 4am

The odds of Theresa May leaving before the end of this year have widened from 2.9 to 3.55. Whilst the odds of her remaining as Prime minister beyond July 2020 have narrowed from 6.4 to 5.1.

However the risks of a leadership challenge have not gone away! Especially, given the fact that she still needs to get the so called deal through the House of Commons, failure of which will once more bring Leadership challenge expectations to fever pitch.

So whilst things may quieten down this week, however, a week or two from now the political temperature in the Tory party could once more be at boiling point.

As for who could be the next Tory leader, here there is has been little movement since last Saturday, with a little widening for some such as Sajid Javid and Jacob Rees-Mogg

18th Nov - 4am

20th Nov - 4am

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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