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Betting Markets Confirm Theresa May Safe From Tory Leadership Challenge this Week

Politics / UK Politics Nov 20, 2018 - 06:40 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

Last week Theresa May's disastrous BrExit deal with the European Union was released, one of having watered down virtually every British red line to nothing, that set the ball rolling on a Tory party leadership challenge with dozens of public announcements of letters being sent to the Tory 1922 backbenchers committee with 48 needed to trigger a challenge. My analysis at the time concluded with several possible BrExiteer contenders ready to take back control from the European Union with a Clean Brexit rather than the NO Brexit deal as my following video illustrates:


NO DEAL HARD BrExit Tory Chaos, Theresa May Leadership Challenge

However, the latest from the betting markets (Betfair) is confirming media speculation that the challenge to her leadership is evaporating for at least the remainder of this week.

Theresa May - Exit Dates

Sunday 18th November - 4am

20th November - 4am

The odds of Theresa May leaving before the end of this year have widened from 2.9 to 3.55. Whilst the odds of her remaining as Prime minister beyond July 2020 have narrowed from 6.4 to 5.1.

However the risks of a leadership challenge have not gone away! Especially, given the fact that she still needs to get the so called deal through the House of Commons, failure of which will once more bring Leadership challenge expectations to fever pitch.

So whilst things may quieten down this week, however, a week or two from now the political temperature in the Tory party could once more be at boiling point.

As for who could be the next Tory leader, here there is has been little movement since last Saturday, with a little widening for some such as Sajid Javid and Jacob Rees-Mogg

18th Nov - 4am

20th Nov - 4am

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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