Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
This Invisible Tech Stock Threatens Amazon with 800,000+ Online Stores - 21st Nov 19
Crude Oil Price Begins To Move Lower - 21st Nov 19
Cracks Spread in the Precious Metals Bullion Banks’ Price Management System - 21st Nov 19
Why Record-High Stock Prices Mean You Should Buy More - 20th Nov 19
This Invisible Company Powers Almost the Entire Finance Industry - 20th Nov 19
Zig-Zagging Gold Is Not Necessarily Bearish Gold - 20th Nov 19
Legal Status of Cannabis Seeds in the UK - 20th Nov 19
The Next Gold Rush Could Be About To Happen Here - 20th Nov 19
China's Grand Plan to Take Over the World - 19th Nov 19
Interest Rates Heading Zero or Negative to Prop Up Debt Bubble - 19th Nov 19
Plethora of Potential Financial Crisis Triggers - 19th Nov 19
Trade News Still Relevant? - 19th Nov 19
Comments on Catena Media Q3 Report 2019 - 19th Nov 19
Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Drags On For A Near Record—36 Months - 18th Nov 19
Intellectual Property as the New Guild System - 18th Nov 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q3’ 2019 Fundamentals - 18th Nov 19
The Best Way To Play The Coming Gold Boom - 18th Nov 19
What ECB’s Tiering Means for Gold - 17th Nov 19
DOJ Asked to Examine New Systemic Risk in Gold & Silver Markets - 17th Nov 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Cycle Update and are we there yet? - 17th Nov 19
When the Crude Oil Price Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III - 17th Nov 19
If History Repeats, Gold is Headed to $8,000 - 17th Nov 19
All You Need To Know About Cryptocurrency - 17th Nov 19
What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 – Part II - 15th Nov 19
America’s Exceptionalism’s Non-intervention Slide to Conquest, Empire - and Socialism - 15th Nov 19
Five Gold Charts to Contemplate as We Prepare for the New Year - 15th Nov 19
Best Gaming CPU Nov 2019 - Budget, Mid and High End PC System Processors - 15th Nov 19
Lend Money Without A Credit Check — Is That Possible? - 15th Nov 19
Gold and Silver Capitulation Time - 14th Nov 19
The Case for a Silver Price Rally - 14th Nov 19
What Happens To The Global Economy If the Oil Price Collapses Below $40 - 14th Nov 19
7 days of Free FX + Crypto Forecasts -- Join in - 14th Nov 19
How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas - 13th Nov 19
Morrisons Throwing Thousands of Bonus More Points at Big Spend Shoppers - JACKPOT! - 13th Nov 19
What to Do NOW in Case of a Future Banking System Breakdown - 13th Nov 19
Why China is likely to remain the ‘world’s factory’ for some time to come - 13th Nov 19
Gold Price Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally - 12th Nov 19
Fed Can't See the Bubbles Through the Lather - 12th Nov 19
Double 11 Record Sales Signal Strength of Chinese Consumption - 12th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II - 12th Nov 19
Gold Retest Coming - 12th Nov 19
New Evidence Futures Markets Are Built for Manipulation - 12th Nov 19
Next 5 Year Future Proof Gaming PC Build Spec November 2019 - Ryzen 9 3900x, RTX 2080Ti... - 12th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

$4 Billion Golden Oppoerunity

Stock Market Range Bound

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019 Oct 14, 2019 - 03:50 PM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.

Intermediate trend –  Indecisive.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers.  If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com

Range Bound

Market Overview

Ever since it made its all-time high of 3028 on 7/21, SPX has been trading in a 200-point range which could either be a consolidation pattern, or the building of an intermediate top formation.  The same can be said of IWM, although the latter made its high almost a year earlier and is either consolidating at a much lower level, or is already in an intermediate downtrend. 

Last week brought no change to the weekly pattern.  As in the previous week, prices started on the downside, but recovered at the end of the week, again driven by a rash of bullish news.  I had expected the 40-wk cycle which was due in this time frame to take prices lower over the near term, but it remains elusive.  We have no choice but to wait for the market to clarify its intention.


 
Market Analysis (All charts are courtesy of QChart)

SPX daily chart

On Friday, the index opened with a gap and continued outside of a short-term downtrend line, establishing a new short-term uptrend from last week’s low of 2856.  This puts it at a critical level!  If it continues to move higher and overcomes the previous top of 3022, it
will have practically confirmed that the 40-wk cycle made its low at 2856.  This would disappoint those expecting that cycle to carry a bigger punch – including me.  It would also increase the odds that the former high of 3028 will be surpassed!

The way SPX closed on Friday should somewhat relieve the bears’ anxiety, but it will take more than that to suggest that the cycle low is still ahead of us.  Dropping back below 2900 right away would be helpful since it would turn the oscillators down again before they get an uptrend established.  Needless to say, the price action of the next few days will have a big impact not only on the short term, but on the intermediate trend as well. 

SPX hourly chart 

There are several reasons why SPX stopped where it did on Friday and pulled-back:  it ran into resistance at a previous short-term high;  it was pushed back by the resistance pattern that formed around the 3022 top;  it was also stopped by the blue trend line which is a parallel of the other two shown on the chart and whose origin goes back to the first channel that formed with the uptrend from 2346 (as you can see on the weekly chart above).  The move from 2856 (so far) looks like a completed a-b-c corrective pattern whereby c=a.  This is why it is important for the pull-back which started on Friday to continue at least below 2955 to ensure that this is indeed a corrective pattern, and not an incomplete impulse wave. 

We have to acknowledge the strength behind this 137-point move which has already overtaken not only the 50-MA but the 200-MA as well. By the close the oscillators were near giving an indication that the move of the second phase was over, but this would only be confirmed if prices retraced a little more on Monday.

UUP (dollar ETF) daily

UUP needs to break a little lower to confirm that it has started a minor correction which could take it to the bottom of the blue channel if it continues.  This is the first time since the inception of the green channel that the CCIhas dipped into the red, but it now needs to accelerate on the downside to confirm the corrective process.

 

GDX (Gold miners ETF) weekly

GDX continues to build a secondary base which could be just about complete if it can hold ~26.00.  It can be helped by weakness in UUP if the latter continues to correct.

CCG (canopy growth) daily

CGC may be approaching the end of an extended correction if it can find support at the bottom of the red channel.

BNO (U.S. Brent oil fund) daily

BNO continues to follow the market and has rallied along with it.  This relationship should continue.

Summary

SPX is at a decision point and the path it chooses over the next few days could have important consequences for the near and longer term trend.

Andre 

FREE TRIAL SUBSCRIPTON

For a FREE 4-week trial, send an email to anvi1962@cableone.net, or go to www.marketurningpoints.com and click on "subscribe". There, you will also find subscription options, payment plans, weekly newsletters, and general information. By clicking on "Free Newsletter" you can get a preview of the latest newsletter which is normally posted on Sunday afternoon (unless it happens to be a 3-day weekend, in which case it could be posted on Monday).

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules