Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter


Why Netflix’s Inevitable End Got Delayed

Companies / Tech Stocks Jan 04, 2020 - 05:45 PM GMT

By: Stephen_McBride

Companies For a day, Midtown Manhattan turned into Disneyland. Food trucks handed out donuts shaped like Homer Simpson. Musicians played tunes from Star Wars. Massive LED screens streamed Disney classics.

It was November 12, the day Disney celebrated the launch of its long-awaited streaming service, Disney+. Millions of folks rushed to sign up on premiere day. There was so much interest the service went down a couple times.

Disney stock was all over the headlines. And it was supposed to be the beginning of the end for Netflix. Yet Netflix stock barely budged on the big day.

And in the three weeks since the launch of Disney+, it has climbed 10%! What’s the deal?

For reasons I’ll explain, investors who predicted a big, all-at-once crash in Netflix stock are missing the point. They’re correct that Netflix stock is a terrible investment, but its decline is going to be a long, slow, painful process.

The Deal Disney Regrets

If you signed up for Disney+, you probably noticed many of Disney’s most iconic movies are missing. Before Disney set its sights on streaming, it struck a landmark deal with Netflix.

In 2012, Disney rented out its movies and TV shows to Netflix. This deal put most of Disney’s first-run blockbusters on Netflix.

That included iconic Pixar animated movies like Finding Nemo as well as the trilogies of Toy StoryMonsters Inc.— also Star Wars with its sequels and everyone’s beloved Marvel movies like Avengers and Spider Man.

Then in 2017, Disney began its Disney+ plans and decided to pull out of the deal. It announced it wouldn’t renew its agreement with Netflix and all Disney’s movies will come back to its catalog.

But the thing is, the agreement is still in effect, and most of Disney’s movies are tied with Netflix for now. Disney can’t even put them up on its own service.

In a way, Netflix is holding some of Disney’s best movies hostage. But soon, one Disney title after another will start leaving Netflix.

Disney’s Movies Will Jump Ship Starting This Year

To give you a taste of what’s coming, here’s a quick rundown of Disney movies on Netflix:

  • Coco, one of the most successful animated movies of the decade, left Netflix on November 29, 2019.
  • Thor: Ragnarok, a beloved Marvel superhero movie, left on December 5, 2019.
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi, the middle of Star Wars’ sequel trilogy, is leaving on December 26, 2019.
  • Black Panther, Marvel’s Oscar-winning blockbuster, is leaving on March 4, 2020.
  • Avengers: Infinity War, yet another Marvel best-selling hit, is leaving on June 25, 2020.

That’s just the tip of the iceberg. Dozens more Disney features are leaving Netflix in the coming year. And they are no ordinary titles. They are beloved movies—some of them all-time favorites.

They are the reason many folks subscribed to Netflix in the first place. And once these movies start jumping ship, so will Netflix subscribers.

Why Netflix Will Slowly Bleed Out

A recent survey from Kill the Cable asked ex-Netflix subscribers why they cancelled their subscription. 42% of them said they left Netflix due to lack of content.

45+ movies and TV shows have left Netflix in the last month alone, including blockbusters like The Imitation Game and Despicable Me 3, according to The Hollywood Reporter. Netflix will also lose all-time favorite comedy shows Friends and The Office next year.

While every title matters, it’s Disney’s blockbusters that Netflix subscribers really want. As I wrote last month, 22% of Americans would cancel their Netflix subscriptions if Netflix lost Disney’s Marvel films, according to The Hollywood Reporter.

Let it sink in, almost 1 in 4 Netflix subscribers are ready to hit the “cancel” button the moment Disney takes back its Marvel movies from Netflix. It will pull three of them in the next half year, and more later.

Don’t Fall for Wall Street’s Bad Advice

Keep in mind Netflix stock has jumped over 10% since the launch of Disney+. This has spurred hope that maybe, just maybe, Netflix can compete with Disney. In fact, according to Barron’s, most of Wall Street thinks Netflix is a buy right now.

They are dead wrong. As I said, this is going to be a long, slow, painful process.

This rally is just a short reprieve. I’m keeping my money far away from Netflix. There are much better ways to make money in the stock market.

Written with the assistance of Dainius Runkevicius.

The Great Disruptors: 3 Breakthrough Stocks Set to Double Your Money"

Get my latest report where I reveal my three favorite stocks that will hand you 100% gains as they disrupt whole industries. Get your free copy here.

By Stephen McBride

© 2019 Copyright Stephen McBride - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules