Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Silver Price Trend Forecast - 29th Jan 20
The "Everything Bubble" Just Burst. Here's Why - 29th Jan 20
Trump vs Cortez - Clash of the Titans - 29th Jan 20
Why Palladium Is on a Tear - 29th Jan 20
The Platinum Breakout & Bull Market of 2020 - 29th Jan 20
Coronavirus Infection Spread and Deaths Forecast 2020 - Video - 28th Jan 20
Is an Accommodative Fed Bullish for the Stock Market? - 28th Jan 20
Trillion-Dollar Stock Market Cap Club - 28th Jan 20
Corona Virus Wuhan Global Pandemic 2020 Deaths Forecast and Market Consequences - 28th Jan 20
Palladium Surges above $2,400. Is It Sustainable? - 27th Jan 20
THIS ONE THING Will Tell Us When the Bubble Economy Is Bursting… - 27th Jan 20
Stock Market, Gold Black Swan Event Begins - 27th Jan 20
This Will Signal A Massive Gold Stocks Rally - 27th Jan 20
US Presidential Cycle Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 - 27th Jan 20
Stock Market Correction Review - 26th Jan 20
The Wuhan Wipeout – Could It Happen? - 26th Jan 20
JOHNSON & JOHNSON (JNJ) Big Pharama AI Mega-trend Investing 2020 - 25th Jan 20
Experts See Opportunity in Ratios of Gold to Silver and Platinum - 25th Jan 20
Gold/Silver Ratio, SPX, Yield Curve and a Story to Tell - 25th Jan 20
Germany Starts War on Gold  - 25th Jan 20
Gold Mining Stocks Valuations - 25th Jan 20
Three Upside and One Downside Risk for Gold - 25th Jan 20
A Lesson About Gold – How Bullish Can It Be? - 24th Jan 20
Stock Market January 2018 Repeats in 2020 – Yikes! - 24th Jan 20
Gold Report from the Two Besieged Cities - 24th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Waves Trend Forecast 2020 - Video - 24th Jan 20
AMD Multi-cores vs INTEL Turbo Cores - Best Gaming CPUs 2020 - 3900x, 3950x, 9900K, or 9900KS - 24th Jan 20
Choosing the Best Garage Floor Containment Mats - 23rd Jan 20
Understanding the Benefits of Cannabis Tea - 23rd Jan 20
The Next Catalyst for Gold - 23rd Jan 20
5 Cyber-security considerations for 2020 - 23rd Jan 20
Car insurance: what the latest modifications could mean for your premiums - 23rd Jan 20
Junior Gold Mining Stocks Setting Up For Another Rally - 22nd Jan 20
Debt the Only 'Bubble' That Counts, Buy Gold and Silver! - 22nd Jan 20
AMAZON (AMZN) - Primary AI Tech Stock Investing 2020 and Beyond - Video - 21st Jan 20
What Do Fresh U.S. Economic Reports Imply for Gold? - 21st Jan 20
Corporate Earnings Setup Rally To Stock Market Peak - 21st Jan 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 - Part1 - 21st Jan 20
How to Write a Good Finance College Essay  - 21st Jan 20
Risks to Global Economy is Balanced: Stock Market upside limited short term - 20th Jan 20
How Digital Technology is Changing the Sports Betting Industry - 20th Jan 20
Is CEOs Reputation Management Essential? All You Must Know - 20th Jan 20
APPLE (AAPL) AI Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 20th Jan 20
FOMO or FOPA or Au? - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review - 20th Jan 20
Why Intel i7-4790k Devils Canyon CPU is STILL GOOD in 2020! - 20th Jan 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Above $1,600 As Iran Retaliates

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020 Jan 10, 2020 - 03:52 PM GMT

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Commodities

We didn’t have to wait long for Iran’s response. After the missile attack on U.S. bases in Iraq, gold briefly soared above $1,600. What should we expect next?

Iran Retaliates, Gold Rallies

On Tuesday, I wrote that “given that Soleimani was widely seen as the second most powerful figure in Iran, we should expect a response.” And, indeed, it arrived before too long. On Wednesday, just hours after the funeral of the Iranian general, Iran launched a missile attack on two military bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops.


In the last edition of the Fundamental Gold Report, I also wrote “the elevated geopolitical risks may support the gold prices, at least in the short-term.” Indeed, gold got support – and what a strong one! Please take a look at the chart below. As one can see, the price of gold spiked to above $1,610, the highest level since February 2013.

Chart 1: Gold prices from January 7 to January 9, 2020.


However, the rally was not sustainable. When the dust settled, it turned out that there were no casualties, and gold returned below $1,600. Moreover, both countries sent signals that they did not go to war. Iran’s foreign minister said that Iran had taken “proportional measures in self-defense” and didn’t seek further escalation of the conflict. Some analysts speculate that the said Iranian officials even warned the U.S. the strikes were coming, as they did not want to kill Americans, but rather to appease Iranian citizens calling for revenge. Meanwhile, President Trump tweeted that “all is well” in the immediate aftermath of the attack. Later, he suggested that the U.S. is not planning to retaliate:

No Americans were harmed in last night’s attack by the Iranian regime. We suffered no casualties. All of our soldiers are safe, and only minimal damage was sustained at our military bases (…) Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world (…) The fact that we have this great military and equipment, however, does not mean we have to use it. We do not want to use it. American strength, both military and economic, is the best deterrent.

The whole statement indicated an important de-escalation in the conflict, which created downward pressure for gold prices. The price of the yellow metal has already decreased below $1,550.

Implications for Gold

What does it all imply for the U.S.-Iran conflict and the future of gold? Well, although the tensions have been put on the back burner somewhat, it would be naïve to think that Iran is done retaliating. The recent attacks were just a first strike, or a symbolic response necessary to save face after Soleimani’s death. But confrontation will almost certainly explode again at some point this year. So, gold could receive support then.

However, while not minimizing the importance of geopolitical risks for investing in precious metals, I am of the optinion that macroeconomic factors are far more impactful when investing long-term. The recent developments in Iraq do not change the fundamental outlook for gold. And it has deteriorated somewhat, at least when compared to 2019. Thus, while not being a bear, I expect that after a solid beginning of the year, gold may struggle somewhat.

Thank you.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would you like to know more about the gold ETFs and their impact on gold price, we invite you to read the April Market Overview report. If you're interested in the detailed price analysis and price projections with targets, we invite you to sign up for our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts . If you're not ready to subscribe at this time, we invite you to sign up for our gold newsletter and stay up-to-date with our latest free articles. It's free and you can unsubscribe anytime.

Arkadiusz Sieron

Sunshine Profits‘ Market Overview Editor

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Arkadiusz Sieron Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules