Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Corona Virus Wuhan Global Pandemic 2020 Deaths Forecast and Market Consequences

Politics / Pandemic Jan 28, 2020 - 04:05 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

One of the worst places for a pandemic to begin is from within a totalitarian state as local party minions tend to be too scared to pass bad news up the chain of command, and obediently wait on orders from leaders residing many hundreds of miles away, by which time it's too late where virus's are concerned, and so it has been with the Corona virus outbreak in China. Don't be fooled by Chinese state propaganda of panic building of hospitals, chinese communist party bureaucracy ensures that it is already too late! The Corona virus has spread throughout China!

I am sure you have all seen news footage of deserted Wuhan streets. Though none of the news reporters appear to have put 2 and 2 together and worked out the reason why the streets are empty is because most of the people living there have already FLED the city, taking their Corona virus infections with them! TOO LATE, OUT OF CONTROL!


How bad could things get? Well 2,700 infected and 96 deaths that we know of in just over a month (actual number may be closer to 50000 infected). Now compare this to the 8 month SARS outbreak between November 2002 and July 2003 that resulted in 8,098 infections and 774 deaths that had a 9.6% fatality rate.

Whilst for the Corona virus we don't know how many deaths there have actually been or how many are really infected as the actual number is likely far higher than Chinese Government propaganda.

The official statistics (96/2700) suggest a fatality rate of 3.5%, about 1/3rd of the SARS virus. So likely under reporting of the actual number of deaths.

However, the Corona virus is far more infectious than SARs, how bad?, a "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD" BAD!

Given the exponential rate of spread of the virus, then by the end of February 2020 as many as 1 million people could be infected globally, that at a 3.5% fatality rate would result in 35,000 deaths. Though the true fatality rate will likely be significantly higher, and likely the virus has already spread to most nations (including Britain) given that approx 1 million Chinese students have traveled back to foreign Universities after the New year holidays.

A lesson from nature, don't EAT CATS and DOGS! Never mind wild BATS! Barmy Chinese diet asking for trouble!

Market implications?

If the above starts to pan out over the next few weeks then the market will increasingly discount future economic impact of a Global Pandemic i.e. flight to safety and lower stock prices.

In part the Dow and other stock market indices have already started to discount Pandemic consequences, though the trend is in line with my expectations for 2020 (Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020).

So a potential AI mega-trend stocks buying opportunity. Though stock sectors likely hardest hit will be travel, tourism and retail.

And of course the Chinese stock market is paying the biggest price for the consequences of a totalitarian state's failure to act in time.

My next analysis will conclude in a multi-month stock market trend forecast, whilst a reminder that my overall forecast for the stock market into the end of 2020 (Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020).

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Also immediate access to my just completed analysis that lists potential buying levels for the Top 15 AI Mega-trend stocks. Where the main thing is for investors to HAVE EXPOSURE to the AI sector! Because without any exposure your not riding the AI train and so unless you are prepared to immerse yourself in AI, i.e. trundle along to the many AI platforms out there such as by Google. Microsoft or Elon Musk's OpenAI then your only real way to capitalise on the AI mega-trend is buy OWNING AI stocks.

This graph further illustrates the magnitude of the change currently under way, where just 2 primary AI stocks, Apple and Microsoft are now worth more than the entire German stock market!

AI Stocks 2019 Review and Buying Levels Q1 2020

Also recently completed -

Scheduled Analysis Includes:

  • Silver Trend Analysis
  • Stock Market Multi Month Trend Forecast 2020
  • UK Housing market series
  • Machine Intelligence Investing stocks sub sector analysis
  • Euro Dollar Futures
  • EUR/RUB
  • US House Prices update

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in