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Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic as Government Start to Ramp Up Testing

Politics / Pandemic Mar 21, 2020 - 04:43 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

The penny finally appears to have dropped in the US! Where even uber skeptic President Trump has finally had someone read the writing on the wall to him, with the US appearing to start to swing firmly in the right direction, though as the following graph illustrates the damage is likely already done, so the US WILL pay a heavy price for Presidential & Congressional Governmental and CDC NEGLIGENCE that borders on CRIMINAL. Where the US wasted THE WHOLE OF FEBRUARY! The US could have nipped this in the bud as I repeatedly suggested was possible during February, but instead supreme arrogance in monitoring and capability reigned supreme until the stock market started discounting the trend trajectories that were starting to unfold. Remember that the stock market DISCOUNTS the future, it's not going to wait for 100,000 deaths before it nose dives as we have witness take place these past 2 weeks.


Will the US authorities finally act in time to save America from a catastrophe the likes of which are only seen in disaster movies? With the potential to be perhaps 100 times worse than September 11th! At least that was limited to just 1 day, this is going to be like a September 11th every other day in terms of economic paralysis.

In determining how bad things are and how bad they are likely to get then I turn to my US trend forecast of 29th of February which modeled US being competent in handign the pandemic and thus resolving towards an outcome simialr to that of South Korea rather than China's. Forecast expectations for a trend to 13,000 infected by the end of March resulting in about 180 deaths. Which was expected to deliver a bear market of sorts resulting in buying opportunities for my Top 14 AI sector stocks.

However with each passing day and Coronavirus trend update, I increasingly became alarmed by what was unfolding which was turning out to be many times worse than forecast primarily due to western arrogance that mature democracies were far more capable at handling a little bug than a totalitarian state such as China, but instead of acting DID NOTHING! Incredulous!

The latest data shows that both US infections and deaths are now going ballistic! on an infinitely steeper trend trajectory than forecast. With little sign that measures enacted to date are having any impact which does not bode well for rest of March, April or May.

In terms of trend trajectories, US Infections of 22813 are 700% of forecast (3280) by this time, which as I warned a week ago suggested to expect over 40,000 infected by the end of March. However what's even more worrying are the number of deaths, where 288 is now 600% of my forecast of where the US should be by now were it handling the pandemic in a competent manner, which now suggests over 1000 deaths are likely before the end of March! That's in just 10 days time! And the trajectories suggest far worse to come for April.

A new trend forecast is being generated that will attempt to forecast infections and deaths into the end of April, by which time hopefully there will be some good news if we see the actual trend converge towards and below my forecast and thus be less catastrophic than what today's trend suggests i.e. if we continue on this path then there would be more than 2 million US deaths by the end of the April! Note this is not my forecast, rather it's the current trend trajectory that will likely moderate as the US government panics to act to quarantine and slow down the rate of spread of the virus which has gone ballistic!

And if that was not bad enough, today we had shocking news out of Italy, that saw 793 deaths in ONE DAY! A warning of what can happen even if you delay firm action for just a few days! Which both the US and UK are guilty of who basically did nothing for the whole month of FEBRUARY!

CoronaVirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Implications and AI Stocks Buying Levels

The rest of this analysis including AI stocks buying levels has first been made available to Patrons who support my work. https://www.patreon.com/posts/us-and-uk-trend-34969504

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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