Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis

Politics / Pandemic Mar 26, 2020 - 07:56 AM GMT

Italy is in full blown Coronavirus crisis mode that just posted a record 793 deaths! Higher than the worst that China reported (fake numbers). However, where Italy is concerned it's not all bad news, as momentum in the rate of new infections has been slowing for some time, which suggests that by early April Italy's rate of infections should have started to flatten out at about 130,000 infected. So whilst there is a lot more pain to come i.e. Italy's infections numbers are likely set to double once more, nevertheless there is light at the end of Italy's dark tunnel.

Still Italy's CFR of 9% is shockingly high! i.e. implies to expect over 12,500 deaths and it remains to be seen to what extent the CFR could worsen yet given that Italy's healthcare system already being overwhelmed let alone potentially face a more than doubling in the number of infected patients by Mid April.

So Italy is a warning of what to expect if a nation does not act quickly to contain and manage outbreaks South Korea style the consequences of which are that severe Panic actions are implemented to HALT the pandemic, such as shutting down the whole nation, and that there is a LAG of about 2 weeks between measures taken and results in slowing the progression of a parabolic pandemic. Thus Italy's total lock down actions this week will manifest in early April by which time the total infected in Italy could reach 130,000 before starting to flattening out towards 140,000.

Thus the big question mark is can the US and UK avoid becoming Italy 2.0 for both have been slow to act where the UK 2 weeks from now could be seeing an CFR of 9% and the US 4 weeks from now. Or with advance warning act to pull off a miracle by resolving towards South Koreas 1% that so far rather than being the norm is turning out to be an outlier as most nations are resolving towards a CFR of between 3% and 6%.

In terms of infections trend, if the UK and US followed Italy's curve then the UK would start to flatten out in about 4 weeks time and the US in about 6 weeks time. So around Mid April for the UK and early May for the US. However in terms of the rates of infection, I am expecting both nations to be at an advantage to Italy and should in relative terms resolve to lower rates of infections. For they have NO excuse NOT listening to the messages screaming and crying out of Italy!

The rest of this extensive analysis that concludes in detailed Coronavirus trend forecasts for the UK and US, folowed by stock market implications of has first been made available to Patrons who support my work - US and UK Coronavirus Pandemic Projections and Trend Forecasts to End April 2020

Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from the Coronavirus CRASH
UK Coronavirus Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic
Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve
Case Fatality Rate Analysis
Italy CFR and Infections Trend Analysis
US and UK CFR
UK Coronavirus Trend forecast
United States Coronavirus Trend forecast
Vaccines and Treatments
CoronaVirus Forecast Stock Market Trend Implications

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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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