Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Why Most Investors LOST Money by Investing in ARK FUNDS - 27th Jan 22
The “play-to-earn” trend taking the crypto world by storm - 27th Jan 22
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Decline Resumes

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020 Jun 22, 2020 - 05:07 PM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.

Intermediate trend Down into mid-July

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers.  If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please go to www.marketurningpoints.com and request a trial.

Decline Resumes 

Important Cycles

Did the 4.5-year cycle bottom in March instead of waiting for its ideal low point in July?  This is a possibility according to a Hurst analystPerhaps we should not be too eager to call for an early low in the 4.5-year cycle.  Of course, the 40-wk cycle is also due in mid-July, and it’s not exactly a wimp!  Before that, a 36-day cycle is due to bottom.  All the above are posted on the daily chart.  

Point & Figure Overview of SPX

Intermediate projection:  Loose projection for mid-July:  2586. 

Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QChart)

SPX-TRAN weekly charts 

I have replaced IWM with TRN.  The latter gives us a slight edge over IWM in predicting the end of a move by topping or bottoming ahead of SPX.  This is demonstrated on the charts below when TRAN alerted us to a turn in the market direction both at the February top and March low.  At times, there is no obvious warning on the weekly chart, but it is clear on the daily chart, as is the case at the current high. It is also clear that long-term relative weakness is retained by TRAN.

SPX daily chart

The rally which started a week ago, lasted only two days before a three-day consolidation started. On Friday, there was a move back to the top of the range which made a fractional new high, but prices began to retrace immediately, and the index ended the day near its low. 

This looks as if heavy selling was met at the top of the range and it should be a prelude to additional selling over the near-term, especially since the futures sold off sharply after the close.  In other words, a secondary high has been made since 3233 and the cycles shown on the chart are beginning to pull prices lower into the intermediate low which is expected in the middle of July. 

That being said, we will still need final confirmation from the oscillators which were already two thirds in a selling mode but needed the CCI to go negative in order to complete a sell signal.  If Friday’s action was analyzed correctly, this should happen after Monday’s session.

SPX hourly chart

The Green heavy trend line starts at the March low and represents the extent of the move from that level, until a reversal was made at 3233.  After breaking the trend line prices found support on the 200-hr MA and rebounded.  The trend line was re-tested with some minor congestion occurring around it before a little pull-back.  On Friday, a final attempt was made to get back above it, and when that failed, more selling started immediately which took the index to a slightly lower correction low, with prices bouncing in the final hour but ending with a closing low for the entire consolidation which now has the appearance of a top that is ready to give way to the next leg of the correction which started from 3233.

On Thursday, a sell signal was generated by the oscillators, and Friday’s action was the final attempt at holding off the next selling wave which, judging by the action of the futures after the close, is now underway. 

UUP (dollar ETF) daily

UUP found support at a former holding level and has rallied from a near-term oversold condition.  Unless its 3-mo cycle has made an early low, it should resume its downtrend, perhaps after retesting the resistance at the green parallel line directly above. 

GDX (Gold miners ETF) daily

GDX may be ready to pull back into a short-term cycle which ranges from 6 to 8 trading days, and eventually conclude its correction at about 30.

PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp.) daily 

Like GDX, PAAS is also correcting and should continue its downtrend until it reaches a .382 retracement of its current uptrend at 22.95.  That coincides with a good support level.

BNO (U.S. Brent oil fund) daily

BNO has bounced to retest its resistance level but has not surpassed it.  It is likely that the resistance will hold, especially if the market continues to correct.

Summary  

SPX appears to have concluded a secondary high on Friday.  If so, this would be the start of the next downtrend phase from the 3233 high, with the entire correction not likely to find an intermediate low until mid-July. 

Andre 

FREE TRIAL SUBSCRIPTON

For a FREE 4-week trial, send an email to anvi1962@cableone.net, or go to www.marketurningpoints.com and click on "subscribe". There, you will also find subscription options, payment plans, weekly newsletters, and general information. By clicking on "Free Newsletter" you can get a preview of the latest newsletter which is normally posted on Sunday afternoon (unless it happens to be a 3-day weekend, in which case it could be posted on Monday).

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in