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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Markets 2020

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Saturday, September 19, 2020

The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

You've probably heard the phrase, "leading economic indicators."

In the U.S., they refer to a core set of data points, including the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index, employment, manufacturing activity, housing starts and consumer confidence.

But, interestingly, the most important economic indicator is usually not referred to as such, and it's none other than the stock market itself.

That's right, despite the widespread belief that the economy drives the stock market, it's the stock market which leads the economy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Saturday, September 19, 2020

The United Floor in Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Doug_Wakefield

If you have pondered HOW stock markets could act like they were totally ignoring everything that has happened since the first of the year, let me share a few thoughts and pictures with you.

First, this is a picture of the Dow as it closed last Friday. This is the stock index most people refer to as “the market” when discussing stocks climbing or falling.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 18, 2020

The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Donald_W_Dony

The S&P 500 has jumped over 50 percent since the March low. All within six months. This is the fastest rebound within half a year that the index has made since the start of the bull market in 2009. Is it any surprise that the benchmark index now appears vulnerable to a pull back?

Since the start of the 11-year bull advance, the average pull back has equaled about 17.0 percent. When the last correction in March 2020 is added to the list, the percent moves up to 19.7 percent (Chart 1).

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 18, 2020

Overvalued Stocks Head into the Bunker / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Michael_Pento

The overvaluation of stocks relative to the economy has placed them in such rarefied space that the market is subject to dramatic and sudden air pockets. Our Inflation Deflation and Economic Cycle model is built to identify both cyclical and secular bear markets and protect and profit from them.

However, what it cannot do, nor can anyone else, is anticipate every short-term selloff in stocks. While the IDEC strategy protects and profits from bear markets, it also tends to soften the blow from short-term selloffs and prevents us from panicking at the bottom of every brief correction. This was the case in the latest plunge that started on September 3rd and lasted just three brutal days.  
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 17, 2020

Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Although our modeling systems have recently switched into Bullish Trending mode, we are still very cautious of a Bull Trap pattern.
  • Bearish technical divergences between price and RSI with an election 50+ days away indicates market weakness and money rotating out of FAANG stocks. FAANGs are at make or break levels – it’s time to act not react.
  • 11% to 22% price rotation ranges are in play – are you ready?

My research team recently highlighted the current market trend setup over the past few weeks as cautiously bullish while watching for a potential Bull-Trap setup.  We have been warning our followers of the risks associated with a Presidential election year event as well as the continued disconnect between the market rally and the real-world economy.  These next few days and weeks will make or break the markets so we encourage you to pay attention to this article.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.

SPX Intermediate trend:  Potential intermediate correction in progress.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, September 14, 2020

Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Over the past 28 years, the SPY has gained an average of 3.45% in 15 of those years; it has fallen by 6.42% in the other 13 years.
  • The critical support level for SPY is 332.85. If the SPY finds support at this level then you can expect continued, moderate price increases.
  • Prepare for a moderate increase in volatility for the rest of September – watch the VIX.

My research team and I have been pouring over the charts in an effort to attempt to identify any support or weakness related to the increase in volatility over the past 7+ trading days.  The VIX is currently at 29.71 after reaching a high of 38.28.  We believe the increased price volatility is here to stay – at least through the end of 2020.  This means skilled technical traders should prepare for some potentially large and aggressive price swings over the next few weeks and months.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, September 14, 2020

Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Paul_Rejczak

The bulls responded with an upswing, which I saw as probable to happen. Is the sharp correction over now? Thus far, my answer remains the same as yesterday – in terms of prices, the worst is likely behind us, in terms of time, we have a way to go still.

So, what about the key juncture stocks are at? Let's get and feel the pulse via a few selected charts.

As for narratives, the tensions around China are back in the spotlight. Otherwise, my yesterday's comments still apply:

(…) Unless the Democrats raise up a notch their existing calls for Biden not to concede defeat under any circumstances, unless rioting ramps up, unless the Fed takes away the punch bowl, and finally unless Americans happily march into another lockdown that who knows when it would really end and on what terms (Cuomo's conditions serve as a great, sorry, terrible example), the stock bull run can go on in September before meeting the October headwinds.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, September 12, 2020

Does the Stock Market Really "See" the Future? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

Addressing the notion that the market "discounts" future events

Let's start off with an August 26 quote from Marketwatch:

[F]rothy financial markets ... currently are discounting the nirvana of an uninterrupted V-shaped recovery. ...

Of course, that statement means that the reason investors have been bidding stock prices higher is that they collectively anticipate a strong economic recovery.

But is that the real reason that stock prices are in record-high territory again?

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 11, 2020

Stock Market Correction or Reversal? The Jury Isn't Out! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Paul_Rejczak

The bears retook initiative yesterday, twisting the hands of weak longs. Where is the usual buy the dip mentality, and all the complacency that is part and parcel of bull markets? It's not just stocks that are at autumn crossroads, and attract extensive comments and discussions (thank you all the commenters!).

If you didn't know, I'm active and present throughout the day at investing.com (just enter my name into the search box there, and it'll offer me as the author – select an article, and check out what you're missing) , one of the sites where free versions of Stock Trading Alerts are featured daily. I'm there, interacting with my audience (just as with my subscribers whenever they send me a comment or question via Sunshine Profits – thanks for that!) – I am discussing this topic today given the key juncture stocks are at.

These comments are so important that they can't go into the From the Readers' Mailbag section. Instead, I'm featuring them (marked as C) before the technical part of today's analysis.

Here are a few quotes in response to yesterday's "Correction Or Reversal? Cast Your Votes" article.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 09, 2020

Stock Traders’ Dreams Come True – Big Technical Price Swings Pending on SP500 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • A potentially critical price inflection point and technical pattern setup that has nearly completed and validated over the past few days, weeks, and months.
  • Potential flag/pennant formation on our Custom Valuations Index Weekly Chart shows a possible 11% to 16% (or more) downside price correction in SPY.
  • Fibonacci Price Modeling system’s projects SPY downside target level near $284.50 before a bounce.

Over the past few weeks and months, my team and I have published a series of research articles suggesting the continued market melt-up was driven by speculation and the US Fed’s policies and support for the markets.  We’ve also highlighted a number of technical patterns that have setup within various symbols that have generated strong warnings of a potential price reversal over the past few weeks.  The biggest pattern has been the Head-and-Shoulders price patterns.  The sudden downside price move in the NASDAQ, and other markets, last week caught many traders/investors off-guard.  One day after a very strong rally in the US stock markets, the price reversed and sold-off nearly 6% – a shocking reversal of trend.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 09, 2020

Should You Be Concerned About The Stock Market Big Downside Rotation? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Don’t panic.  Technical Analysis does not confirm a deeper price correction at this time, nor does this appear to be the Bull-Trap we have been warning about… yet.
  • We are waiting until next week to see if price confirms any new trend.
  • Volatility should decrease if this is just a moderate price rotation.

Is this the “Bull-Trap” setup we have been warning about for some time now?  Should traders be concerned about deeper downside price trends or a collapse in the markets?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 08, 2020

Options Traders Keep "Opting" for Even Higher Stock Market Prices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

And this continued bullish behavior speaks volumes about the trend

What a rally!

After a swift and scary ride downward, the DJIA has climbed from a low of 18,213 on March 23 to near-record high territory.

Even so, many investors are still bullish, and they're backing up their conviction with a great enthusiasm for call options, which are bets on higher prices. (By contrast, as you probably know, put options are placed when market participants expect lower prices.)

This enthusiasm for call options has been on display for at least a couple of months now.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, September 07, 2020

Stock Market SPX to Gold/Silver Ratios Explored – What To Expect Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • A Phase II rally in metals is just getting ready to start.
  • Phase II rallies are very explosive and tend to enter Parabolic trends.
  • Gold could rally 250% to 350% over the next several years.
  • Silver could rally 550% to 750% over the next several years.

My research team and I started exploring the relationship between the Gold-to-Silver ratio and the S&P 500 to find trends in Metals and the US Stock Markets.  We called the collapse in the Gold-to-Silver ratio accurately back in March 2020, and we believe the current setup in the S&P to the Gold-to-Silver ratio shows the move in Precious Metals is far from over. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Sunday, September 06, 2020

Stock Market Divergent Top - Are Fangs Going To Breakdown Soon? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • FANG Index may begin to peak/top as RSI Divergence pattern sets up.
  • Dow Theory trend divergence confirmation suggests the end of the “Excess Rally” is near.
  • The VIX moving higher suggests greater concerns of increased volatility.
  • Dow Jones Utility Index moving lower on increased volume may be the key in a multiple-pattern set up that will confirm larger market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Friday, September 04, 2020

Stock Market September Consolidation Vs Straight Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Ricky_Wen

The month of August wrapped up around the monthly highs as the Emini S&P 500 (ES) price action gained about +7% vs July. It was a statistical outlier as it was one of the biggest gains for August in decades. Nonetheless, the August monthly candle demonstrated a powerful immediate continuation off of the past few months’ setup and trend continuation pattern. A few important things on our radar inform us that September likely won’t be as easy or one directional.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 03, 2020

The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

I know many of you view the Fed as quite omnipotent, with the ability to move the market with a simple stroke of a key.  In fact, this perspective is so ubiquitous that I know almost none of you will take my presentation seriously, as “common-think” has taken over most investor’s ability to see the facts presented to us by the market.  However, please do recognize that my perspective is based in fact and history, rather than the supposition and fallacy upon which most perspectives in the market are based. 

Moreover, I have presented many prognostications in the past which have seemed unrealistic at the time, yet almost all of which have been realized within the fullness of time. So, why not offer another? (smile)

The main premise which is universally accepted is that the Fed can simply “print” money and push it into the stock market to cause the market to rally.  In this way, the Fed has supposedly supported the market, and has caused this rally we have been seeing for many years.

To this end, I will again quote a comment I received to one of my recent articles, which explains the common perception on this matter quite clearly:

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 03, 2020

S&P 500: Revealing the "Real" Story About the Record High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

Financial headlines do not always tell the full story

Sometimes you have to dig a little deeper than the headline to find out what really happened.

You know, like what's suggested by the television title "True Hollywood Story," or the BBC's "Real Story."

Sometimes getting the real scoop simply satisfies one's curiosity and is more entertainment than anything else. But, at other times, digging deeper into a subject can help one draw an important conclusion that may affect one's life -- or investments.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 02, 2020

Stock Market Dow Jones Utilities Breaking Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Dow Theory suggests indices must confirm each other and volume must confirm the trend.
  • The new downward trend in the Dow Utilities Index suggests indices are starting to break apart in terms of trending in unison. 
  • Volume recently has been trailing lower, which suggests the momentum behind these new all-time highs is weakening. 
  • If the Utilities Index continues to move lower and we see increased volume in the selling trend, we will consider the Dow Theory Trend component “broken” and expect a major peak/top soon after.

We know some of you are Dow Theory enthusiasts and followers.  We follow the Transportation Index as a leading indicator for potential major market trends almost exclusively because of what we have learned from Dow Theory.  If you are unfamiliar with Dow Theory, we suggest visiting Investopedia’s summary of this technical theory for a quick refresher. You can also learn more about the primary indicator in Dow Theory here. The two most important aspects of Dow Theory that we are researching today are two components:

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 02, 2020

Stock Market Short-term Trend Lines in Focus / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.

SPX Intermediate trend:  We should be approaching an important high, with confirmation coming over the near term.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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