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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Markets 2020

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock market seasonal trend is usually for a weak October followed by strong November and December, which this year is being disrupted by the election. So where the election cycle is concerned the first few months of a new presidency tends to be subdued, following which the bull market settles in and continues it's business as usual. So we could be heading for a subdued 5 to 6 months.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, November 23, 2020

Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My commonsense interpretation of EWT resolves in a clear cut 5 wave advance into the Mid September peak with subsequent price action resolving in an ABC corrective decline.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 22, 2020

Stock Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

How does 2020 compare to the last 2 presidential elections in terms of stock market trend.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 22, 2020

Stock Market Short-term Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.

SPX Intermediate trend:  New intermediate uptrend underway.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Saturday, November 21, 2020

Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

My researchers and I want to highlight a Weekly chart pattern that is warning of a potential Top/Reversal in the SPY & SPX.  Although the current trend is Bullish and the markets are looking forward to the new year, new policies, and probably new stimulus which normally prompts some type of upward price rally in the markets, we see an “Island Setup” that has continued to form after all the positive COVID-19 vaccine news.

An Island Setup in price is when price moves or Gaps away from a typical price range or boundaries, then stalls.  This type of setup is similar in structure to a Doji Star setup in an “Evening Star” formation.  Similarly, the Doji Star pattern also warns of a possible trend reversal.  Our researchers believe any continued failure to rally at this stage points to a very real downside price reversal setting up in the SPY/SPX. Let’s take a look at some Weekly charts.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Friday, November 20, 2020

Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market is having its first significant correction since the start of it's bull run following the corona crash into March 2020. Failure to hold support at 26,500 is eyeing a trend to next support at 25,000. Though MACD is oversold so implies limited downside. Of course price action is heavily influenced by election uncertainty.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 20, 2020

Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

"This is the highest ratio in the 20-year history of the data."

One of the historic ways that stock market investors exhibit conviction about the direction of prices is to use leverage or participate in the market with borrowed money. Yet another way of putting it is to "trade on margin."

Going all the way back to 1929, that was the downfall of many who viewed the market as a quick way to get rich.

Here's an Oct. 29, 1929 Boston Daily Globe headline:

Margin Account Dumping Brings Stock Crash ...

Yet, you can find examples in more recent history too

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 19, 2020

THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The starting point for my stock market analysis is to remind all of the BIG PICTURE, the general trend trajectory for AI stocks as illustrated by my following concluding graph from June 2020. (Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035! )

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 19, 2020

DJIA Short-term Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Short-term Analysis

The stock markets recovery from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe has been spectacular. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 6 months recovered to a high of 29,200, just 400 points shy of making a new all time high! That is a spectacular bull run! So given that we have entered the weakest period of the year (October) AND that there is an election on the 3rd of November then the least surprising thing should be that the stock market has entered into the correction. In fact the only surprising thing is that the Dow did not start correcting earlier in the month, instead it even tried to break towards a new post crash high Mid October, which was a little puzzling at the time as it implied the market was discounting a Trump election victory that was invisible to most including me. Nevertheless it was ringing the alarm bells that Trump could even win, why else is the stock market soaring.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Tag 30k Twice – Setting Up Stock Market Double Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Sometimes the markets telegraph a key level or future target level in pre-market or post-market trading.  Other times these telegraphed price targets happen during regular trading hours.  Recently, the Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Contracts (YM) generated two unique high price levels near $30,000 over the span of about 6 trading days.

My research team and I believe this “telegraphed high price target level” is a warning of major resistance for traders.  These types of broad market patterns are not very common on charts.  They happen sometimes, but very rarely like this example on the YM chart below.  This Double Top (Tweezers) pattern may be warning that the $30,000 level on the YM could become a major market peak/turning point.  Additionally, the post election rally reached this $30,000 level on the day Pfizer announced the vaccine data, then sold off quite consistently throughout the regular trading session.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Stock Market Uptrend in Process / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.

SPX Intermediate trend:  An intermediate correction has ended.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 12, 2020

Stock Market Dow Futures Reach 30,000 on News of COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Success / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Early this morning, the US stock market indexes/futures rallied on news that Pfizer’s new COVID-19 vaccine late-stage trials appear to show 90% effective rates.  Overall, this is very good news for the US and global market economic recovery efforts. It means we may be able to get back to somewhat normal very quickly (as soon as the Fast-Track FDA approval process is complete).  The YM (Dow Jones E-Mini Futures) reached a high of 30,000 very early today – which is a huge psychological level for traders.

After the US elections last week and the continued news of the outcome – the global financial markets were really wanting some type of good news instead of more chaos and unknowns.  The Pfizer news hit the pre-market trading like a booster rocket.  Before the opening bell in New York, the Dow Jones futures were up over 1500 points – which is simply incredible.

If you’ve followed my research long enough, you’ve heard me use the term “Pop-n-Drop”.  A “Pop-n-Drop” is when something big drives a big market gap which quickly falls down later in the trading session(s). This happend because market prices always have a way of reverting back to somewhat normal trading ranges.  Let’s take a look at a few different charts/sectors to help illustrate this type of setup.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Stock Market Secular Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Donald_W_Dony

The secular upward trend of the world's stock markets never missed a beat due to the ongoing turmoil surrounding the U.S. President election this last month.

The benchmark world index (Dow Jones Global Index) is set to post a new all-time high later this month which continues the pattern of 11-years of higher highs and higher lows (Chart 1).

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Stock Market Correction Curtailed by US Election / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far, will be gauged after the September-November correction.

SPX Intermediate trend:  Intermediate correction may have ended.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Friday, November 06, 2020

THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Will the November 3rd election earthquake trigger a stock market Tsunami or just a few inconsequential waves lapping on the market shore?  Here we stand just a few days away from the US presidential election with the liberal MSM in a state of electoral fever as their preferred candidate is way ahead on the polls looking set to win, just as their favoured candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 was way head of the polls so unlike 2016 there is an edge to the frenzy of their activity given the awareness that the polls tend to be wrong, skewed against conservative voters and opinions. However, 2020 is even more chaotic than 2016, as this year there is the backdrop of the chinese virus raging across the US and especially in many US swing states that is contributing towards new cases of infection soaring to new plandemic highs with deaths already having broken above 230,000! Near double all of the US lives lost in all of the wars since 194 that acts as a continuing noose around the US economy, though that has so far not been enough to full fill that which the perma stock market doom merchants have been proclaiming for a more than a decade, an end to the stocks bull market.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

Stock Market SPY Channeling lower Ahead of US Election Result / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

From a simple technical standpoint, we’ve seen a number of recent breakdowns in the SPY related to Fibonacci Price Theory and Price Gap Theory.  One of the most critical components of the recent 60+ days price activity in the SPY is the failed new high on October 12.  This failed attempt to rally above the previous high price level, near 358.82, suggests a broader market price decline has setup (a downtrend).

SPY 240 MINUTE CHART

After the failed new high peak on October 12, a series of new downside price gaps can be seen in the SPY chart below as price accelerated downward.  These unfilled price gaps represent price acceleration to the downside and will eventually exhaust – creating a new momentum base/bottom.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, November 02, 2020

Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-November correction.

SPX Intermediate trend:  Intermediate correction could continue as a large sideways pattern at least into mid-November, and perhaps until the end of the year.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, November 02, 2020

Stock Market Breakdown May Extend Deeper If Support Is Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The breakdown in the markets last week may have caught some traders off guard and resulted in a few stressful days.  As much as we want to tell you the selling is over, my researchers and I believe the selling may continue for a bit longer as the election and uncertainty related to COVID-19, global economics and post election stimulus and US government issues continue to plague future growth expectations.

We’re presenting these custom index charts today to help you understand where key support levels are in the broader market and to help you understand what to expect if this selling continues.  Over the past few weeks, we’ve published a number of research articles that provide important background and context to this article, including our research on the SPY Dark Cloud Cover pattern, NASDAQ E-minis Futures support levels, and what we see in store for prices of Gold and Silver.

One of the tools we use, in conjunction with our proprietary indicators, price modeling, and trading systems is our Custom Index charts.  These charts help us to gauge and understand market price activity as well as to help quantify the scale and scope of recent trends.  For example, we use these charts (and others) to better understand where, when, and how the underlying facets of the markets are shifting.  Often times, this allows us to see how the mechanics of the markets are working before the outcome really starts to become evident.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Stock Market Turning? Look For These Support Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The breakdown in the US stock markets early on Monday, October 26, was more about investor expectations and a transitioning away from risk ahead of the US Elections than any other factor.  No new stimulus deal being reached in addition to a surge in US COVID-19 cases recently suggests another contraction in the US economy may not be too far away.  Additionally, as news bombs seem to be nearly an hourly event, investors and traders are suddenly much more uncertain of the outcome of the US elections which are nearly 7 days away.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Stocks are Strong but be Aware of this Continuing Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The last 6+ trading days before the US elections could result in a confirmation of last month’s SPY Dark Cloud Cover pattern or a potential Harami pattern setup. What does this mean for traders and investors?

The Dark Cloud Cover pattern is a very ominous potential Top/Sell trigger in Japanese Candlestick terms.  It is a fairly common pattern, like the Engulfing Bearish pattern, that manifests near major peaks in price. The one thing that really stuck out with the current Dark Cloud Cover pattern on the Monthly SPY chart was the size of the pattern.  The current Dark Cloud Cover pattern on the Monthly SPY chart spans 39.56 points (nearly an 11% price range).  Comparatively, this pattern is very large compared to the more recent price peak ranges.

Over the past 30+ days, we’ve published multiple research articles related to the core technical elements of the SPY chart and the Dark Cloud Cover pattern that set up in September.  Pay very close attention to the Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs that also show key resistance playing out near the recent peaks. Finally, don’t forget to read our Grey Swan Alert in October’s issue of TradersWorld.

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