Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Is Gold the Only US Election Winner?

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020 Nov 05, 2020 - 04:29 PM GMT

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Commodities

The elections are behind us. However, the official results are still not definite. What does it mean for gold prices?

Ladies and Gentlemen, the new President of the United States is… still unknown! The election results are not available, as some states are still counting the votes. The race is very balanced, with few states remaining too close to call. At the moment of writing this report, Joe Biden leads the White House race with 253 electoral votes, while Donald Trump has 213 electoral votes. So, Biden is more likely to become the new POTUS . However, with those few states officially still undecided, Trump could still win. Hopefully, we will get some of the results later today, but it might even take several days to count the ballots in some locations.


One thing is sure: Trump over-performed polls and expectations in the presidential election, again. What a shame, pollsters! We warned our Readers several times against trusting polls:

“although mainstream pollsters have corrected some of the mistakes they made in 2016, it’s safe to assume that Trump has better chances of reelection than it is widely believed and reflected in the mainstream polls”.

Moreover, Republicans also performed much better than expected in elections to Congress . We don’t know all the results yet, but as for the moment, both Democrats and Republicans have 48 seats in the Senate. So, yes, Republicans could still lose the Senate, but that is less likely now than before the elections. They are also on track to pick up a few seats in the House of Representatives. So, while all the focus is on presidential election results, investors shouldn’t underestimate the surprising strength of the Republicans in Congress.

Implications for Gold

What does it all imply for the gold market? Well, it’s not easy to determine since we still don’t know the results. However, the most likely scenario is Biden to enter the White House, Democrats ruling in the House, and Republicans maintaining a majority in the Senate, which is actually relatively bad news for gold.

I mean, the Blue Wave was considered to be the best scenario for the yellow metal. If controlling both the White House and Congress, Democrats could do whatever they want. So, they could boost government spending and public debt and raise taxes, supporting the gold prices. However, if Republicans keep control over the Senate, they will block the worst ideas of Democrats. Thus, the divided power would be better for the economy but worse for the shiny metal.

However, the probable lack of a blue wave shouldn’t plunge the price of gold. Yes, there will still be gridlock and higher uncertainty, and gold prices may be under brief pressure in the short-term, but the fiscal stimulus will eventually arrive. Therefore, no matter who ultimately wins, gold’s long-term fundamental outlook remains bullish . The coronavirus pandemic will continue to affect the US economy negatively, so both the White House and the Fed will provide more stimulus. The monetary policy will stay ultra-dovish, and the real interest rates will remain in the negative territory.

Moreover, when the dust settles after the elections, and the uncertainty will become lower, gold may continue its rally . As the chart below shows, the gold price has already increased (after an initial drop). So, maybe the actual winner of the elections is gold?

Of course, it’s too early to assess with certainty the medium-term impact of elections on the gold market. The volatility could stay with us for quite some time, and the dashed prospects of significant fiscal stimulus could negatively affect the gold market in the short-term.

However, one thing remains interesting. In contrast to the 2016 presidential election, the gold market swings were much smaller this time . It seems to be bullish news, but, hey, don’t count your chickens before they hatch. So, stay tuned. Hopefully, we will know the more complete election results soon and the new FOMC statement, which will enable us to describe the gold’s outlook with more certainty!

Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter.  Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!

Arkadiusz Sieron

Sunshine Profits‘ Market Overview Editor

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Arkadiusz Sieron Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in