The stock markets recovery from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe has been spectacular. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 6 months recovered to a high of 29,200, just 400 points shy of making a new all time high! That is a spectacular bull run! So given that we have entered the weakest period of the year (October) AND that there is an election on the 3rd of November then the least surprising thing should be that the stock market has entered into the correction. In fact the only surprising thing is that the Dow did not start correcting earlier in the month, instead it even tried to break towards a new post crash high Mid October, which was a little puzzling at the time as it implied the market was discounting a Trump election victory that was invisible to most including me. Nevertheless it was ringing the alarm bells that Trump could even win, why else is the stock market soaring.

So clearly the stock market and the polls and betting markets are gyrating towards trying to divine the outcome oft he US presidential election, where it looks like the stock markets early October was WRONG, hence the recent plunge to recent lows. Maybe it was wishful thinking amongst wall street traders exposed to too much Fox News and thus started to believe the hype, anyway reality has now started to dawn on market participants that Trump is not the favourite to win this election hence this weeks 900 point Dow nose dive.

This analysis is an excerpt from my latest in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the stock market into January 2021.

Stock Market Trend Forecast into January 2021, Final Election Forecast Matrix

Stock Market Big Picture
Dow Short-term Analysis
Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
VIX Analysis
2020 vs 2016 and 2012
ELLIOTT WAVES
Seasonal Trend / Election Cycle
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Conclusion
US Presidential Election Forecast Matrix Final Update
AI Stocks - AMD is Killing Intel

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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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