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Silver Technicals Ripe for Explosive Rally

Commodities / Gold & Silver Oct 20, 2008 - 01:00 PM GMT

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNeedless to say, the iShares Silver ETF (AMEX: SLV) has been in the grasp of a vicious and relentless multi-month bear phase in the aftermath of a 7-month powerful advance from 11.00 to 20.73. In fact, spot silver prices have not been this low since Februay 2006 and have retraced all of the bull move from around $9 to $21.50. Compared to the weakness in gold, silver has crashed, losing 65% of its value versus 23% in gold. Clearly, the need to deleverage and to raise cash hit the silver market much more severely than it did the gold market, which cut in half the gold/silver ratio -- no reflecting 82+ ounces of silver needed to equal the value of 1 ounce of gold.


My work on the gold/silver ratio is screaming at me that silver has to appreciate vis-à-vis gold. With silver (SLV) technicals looking ripe and ready for a recovery rally period, my sense (and my work) argue strongly in favor of a long position in silver, not gold, here -- although in the final analysis silver will need both gold and the euro to reverse into uptrends sooner than later to perpetuate a sustained advance. For now, though, I want to be long for a trade towards 11.00 initially.

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By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

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