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How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

What it's like at a Stocks Bear Market Bottom

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022 Jul 29, 2022 - 08:51 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

This clip from March 2009 illustrates what it's like at a market bottom, that had analysts stating at Dow 6490 that the Dow was nowhere near a bottom which was at least another 20% to 25% further below.

AT THE BOTTOM


The bottom will ALWAYS BE some distance away in terms of price and time, where the rally off the bottom will always be seen as a dead cat bounce to SELL.

Where do we stand today? We'll no one, not even I think today's rally is off THE bottom! But I know enough to know that -

a, AI tech stocks have already deviated greatly from their highs so it's going to be a tough call to expect further new lows in most.

b. That many if not most will likely outperform the indices going forward. Yes a few are still expensive such as Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and maybe AMD that carry a risk premium for further downwards price action to fair value. And then there is Amazon which whilst expensive IS DOWN 46% which offers a bottom picking cushion of sorts.

c. That bear market bottom will always be seen by virtually all as being further away in terms of time and price.

d. That the rally off the bottom will ALWAYS be seen as a bear market rally to SELL into rather than to BUY the rally as it will be taken as granted that it is just another BEAR MARKET RALLY! Whilst everyone waits for CAPITULATION to happen.

The net result is that MOST will SELL the rally off the bottom rather than buy it, that is human psychology as I covered in my last article, Investors will be relieved that they can finally cut their losses and SELL the RALLY as the dead cat bounce bear market rally mantra will persist for probably well over year AFTER the market bottoms! As most who failed to buy or worse sold are convinced that new lows remain inevitable given dire fundamentals just as was the case during 2009 and into 2010 for which investors will have plenty of media queens to turn to reinforce such views as clueless journalist regurgitate tripe of imbecilic academics all the way to NEW ALL:TIME HIGHS!

Nouriel Roubini Stock Market 20% Drop Forecast, Time to Buy?

July 2009 - Back in July as the Stealth bull market corrected, Nouriel Roubini re-appeared with another bear market call - Global Investor - Market bear Roubini sticks to dour forecasts

"Macro news, earnings news and financial shocks are going to be worse than expected and that's why I believe this is still a bear market rally," he told BNN

So one needs to get into the right mindset for which one needs a PLAN and then to FOLLOW it. My plan was pretty simple, to have a mountain of cash on account Mid Jan, and then to gradually accumulate during the bear market of 2022 as individual stocks trade to new lows with buying levels based on valuations acting as guide posts along the way. For if one bought on the basis of the indices then one would have bought Apple at over $160 instead of below $130 as I warned barely weeks ago given that the stock price was not falling along with the rest of the market early May. That's an example of what happens if one follows the indices as unfortunately many do! Of course in the long-run it won't make much difference if one bought Apple at $160, but it is a much lower draw down risk to buy at below $130 than above $160.

Stock Market Trend 2022

The rest of this analysis on the state of the stocks bear market and more The REAL Stocks Bear Market of 2022 was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Most recent analysis -

Whilst my recent in-depth analysis is - UK House Prices Three Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025, where I pealed away every layer of the UK housing market I could think of to arrive at a high probability of trend forecast, no following of the consensus herd here! Whilst completion of my extensive analysis of the US housing market is imminent.

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

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WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast 
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024

So if you want immediate access to a high probability trend forecast of UK house prices, with US and global housing markets analysis to follow soon then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My Main Analysis Schedule

  • UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
  • US House Prices Trend Forecast - 85%
  • Global Housing / Investing Markets - 60%
  • US Dollar / British Pound Trend Forecasts - 0%
  • Stock Market Trend forecast into End 2022 - 0%
  • High Risk Stocks Update - Health / Biotech Focus - 0%
  • How to Get Rich - 85%
  • Gold and Silver Analysis - 0%
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Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your analyst BUYING the panic selling falling knives.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2022 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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