US CPLIE for April & Delaying US Bond Market Panic Event

Interest-Rates / US Bonds May 14, 2025 - 02:44 PM GMT

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13th May 2025, 5am UK Time :

US CPLIE for April today....

Expect Trumps tariffs supply chain disruption chaos to START showing up in inflation data, inflation will be a lot worse for May, June.... data sending CPI Lie from current 2.4% towards 4% before year end that acts to cripple the Fed's ability to cut rates AND results in higher yields for a mountain of $9 trillion of US debt due for refinancing this year which is why the so called deal was done with China so as to PREVENT a Bond Market PANIC EVENT.

The weekend deal in large part was the Trump regime capitulating to China else risk a Bond Market Panic Event. One only needs to go look at US Bond yields that went UP on the so called deal. The bond market is a cat and mouse game, where the bond market is waiting for signs of a RECESSION! Because that will signal rate cuts are incoming, yes analysing the markets is like playing 8D chess, where both outcomes of a panic spike in yields AND a sharp drop in yields are likely to happen, even within days of one another! :)

Still folk wearing rose tinted glasses proclaim the weekend 'deal' as a victory for the US, the reality is that it's not a victory of any sorts! the weekend deal was out of a position of weakness not strength.

I'm continuing to trim the rally, currently about 22.7% cash, if Tariffs inflation is yet to impact CPLIE as the CPI consensus expectation is for no change on March 2.4% thus allowing the stocks rally to continue then that would be a case of getting lucky, i.e. the inflation is yet to enter the data.

S&P break above 5850 targets 6000+ a break of which targets 6150+ new all time high which remains my base case.

I'm working on the next article, will post a ETA in the comments close to posting.

Your trimming the rally analyst

Nadeem Walayat

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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