Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Covid, Debt and Precious Metals - 3rd Jun 20
Gold-Silver Ratio And Correlation - 3rd Jun 20
The Corona Riots Begin, US Covid-19 Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 3rd Jun 20 -
Stock Market Short-term Top? - 3rd Jun 20
Deflation: Why the "Japanification" of the U.S. Looms Large - 3rd Jun 20
US Stock Market Sets Up Technical Patterns – Pay Attention - 3rd Jun 20
UK Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 2nd Jun 20
US Real Estate Stats Show Big Wave Of Refinancing Is Coming - 2nd Jun 20
Let’s Make Sure This Crisis Doesn’t Go to Waste - 2nd Jun 20
Silver and Gold: Balancing More Than 100 Years Of Debt Abuse - 2nd Jun 20
The importance of effective website design in a business marketing strategy - 2nd Jun 20
AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Buying Levels Q2 2020 - 1st Jun 20
M2 Velocity Collapses – Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up? - 1st Jun 20
The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum - 1st Jun 20
AMD 3900XT, 3800XT, 3600XT Refresh Means Zen 3 4000 AMD CPU's Delayed for 5nm Until 2021? - 1st Jun 20
Why Multi-Asset Brokers Like TRADE.com are the Future of Trading - 1st Jun 20
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

CIBC Global Markets Slams Silver

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Feb 13, 2009 - 06:31 AM GMT

By: David_Morgan

Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week I'm going to comment on Jon Nadler 's remarks in his February 9 article titled The Silver Medalist. Jon pointed out some interesting quotes about the silver market and some of these I have issue with and some I don't. Mostly what he did is quote CIBC Global Markets and their assessment of the silver market. And one thing that he quotes from CIBC is that in 2008 silver had risen to about $20 an ounce and lately it's been languishing at around the $10 level; those are facts, no dispute there. And then they (CIBC) goes on to state at the first sign of a decline in gold, investors are likely to sell their silver holding but retain more of their gold holdings since gold has a supe­rior reputation as an insurance policy, compared to silver. I really don't have an issue with that, yet .


For one thing, in this part of the cycle, gold has certainly gotten most of the publicity and will continue to do so. Secondly, gold is almost mainstream and even Wall Street's starting to talk about gold. Silver is not frequently discussed; it certainly is not thought of as a safe-haven asset by most investors in North America . However, that fails to recognize that there are 6.2 billion people on the planet and many of those will never hear of Jon Nadler or David Morgan or Ted Butler or any commen­tator for that matter, but they have eons of history where silver was a store of value. And those people, as things unwind globally, will move to the silver market, simply because gold is outside their price range.

So for now, I think the CIBC statement referred to in the first paragraph is a fairly accurate one. Certainly it's an opinion. As far as the future is concerned, however, my opinion is a bit different because of what I see coming down the road, and that is my reason for using the word “yet,” above.

What bothers me about this CIBC article that Jon has quoted is that they believe the increase in base metals will lead to a low in silver prices because there's going to be more and more silver as a result of base metal mining. That's something I take some issue with for 2009 and probably well into 2010. I've already written an article about that; in fact I said 70 percent of silver is not coming to the market—and that was just a catch phrase so people would understand that 70 percent of the silver that does come to market is a result of base metal mining. From everything I have read and all indications I get, the amount of silver mined in 2009 as a result of base metal mining will probably be less than what it was in 2008.

Thus the CIBC article is certainly worth reading and commenting on, and I think Jon handled it very well, because basically what he's doing is quoting what CIBC said. His look at it is somewhat similar: there has been a big ratio drop. Silver has outper­formed gold from the time silver started its bull market in 2003, but depending where you draw the starting line, you can make just about any argument you want. You can also say that from 2003, which is where I think the silver bull market started, after the gold bull market began, silver has outperformed gold until recently. And since then, gold has outperformed silver based on total performance and the gold/silver ratio.

The ratio went from basically 80 to 1, down to around 50 to 1, until the credit crisis started unwinding and once that took place, the silver/gold ratio got back up—actually above 80, temporarily. Now it's worked itself down to around 70 . . . will it continue down or up, nobody knows. I actually suspect that the ratio is not going to get real favorable toward silver, probably for the rest of the year. Not that I'm agreeing with the CIBC article, but I have to maintain my integrity in what I've writ­ten to my membership site, Silver-Investor.com , and have told readers of The Morgan Report —that I saw a good rally going into the early months and after that, it might be a time to build cash and look for some good values.

The amount of silver that is available for investment is so small, probably 50 million to 100 million ounces at best. That is a pitifully small market, relative to all the paper that's flying around. And there will be a day like no other day, when someone is not going to be able to deliver silver to someone who can make some noise, and when that event takes place it will probably be pushed aside, looked at askew, and not recognized as the fact that it is. But eventually the truth will leak out, and once that happens I think more and more people will start to get much more interested in the silver market.

It is an honor to be,

By David Morgan,
Silver-Investor.com

Mr. Morgan has followed the silver market daily for more than 30 years. Much of his Web site, www.silver-investor.com , is devoted to education about the precious metals . David Morgan believes NOW is the time for baby boomers who want to retire comfortably and without fear to start investing in precious metals. Now you can discover his Ten Rules of Silver Investing for Baby Boomers, when you sign up for his free newsletter here .

Contact information: silverguru22@hotmail.com

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are not intended to be taken as investment advice. It is to be taken as opinion only and I encourage you to complete your own due diligence when making an investment decision.

David Morgan Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules