Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
AMD Ryzen 4900x / 5900x and 4950x / 5950x Zen3 4th Gen IPC and Clock Speed and Core Specs - 14th Aug 20
Stock Market Gap Fills Suggests Market Momentum May Stall - 14th Aug 20
Silver May Be Overextended – But It’s STILL Cheap - 14th Aug 20
A Short Guide To Making Your First Stock Market Investment - 14th Aug 20
Is Tech Reality Affects our Dating Possibilities? - 14th Aug 20
Will You Make Money in the New Silver Bull Market ? - 13th Aug 20
Hyper-Deflation Capital Destruction And Gold & Silver - 13th Aug 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching - 13th Aug 20
Silver Took the Stairs to $21 in 2008, Took Escalator to $29 2010. Is Silver on Elevator to 120th floor today? - 13th Aug 20
President Trump Signs Additional COVID Relief – What To Expect from the Markets - 13th Aug 20
Has Gold's Upward Drive Come to an End? - 13th Aug 20
YouTuber Ads Revenue & How to Start a Career on YouTube - 13th Aug 20
Silver Notches Best Month Since 1979 - 12th Aug 20
Silver Shorts Get Squeezed Hard… What’s Next? - 12th Aug 20
A Tale of Two Precious Metal Bulls - 12th Aug 20
Stock Market Melt-Up Continues While Precious Metals Warn of Risks - 12th Aug 20
How Does the Gold Fit the Corona World? - 12th Aug 20
3 (free) ways to ride next big wave in EURUSD, USDJPY, gold, silver and more - 12th Aug 20
A Simple Way to Preserve Your Wealth Amid Uncertainty - 11th Aug 20
Precious Metals Complex Impulse Move : Where Is next Resistance? - 11th Aug 20
Gold Miners Junior Stcks Buying Spree - 11th Aug 20
Has the Fed Let the Inflation Genie Out of the Bottle? - 10th Aug 20
The Strange Food Trend That’s Making Investors Rich - 10th Aug 20
Supply & Demand For Money – The End of Inflation? - 10th Aug 20
Revisiting Our Silver and Gold Predictions – Get Ready For Higher Prices - 10th Aug 20
Storm Clouds Are Gathering for a Major Stock and Commodity Markets Downturn - 10th Aug 20
A 90-Year-Old Stock Market Investment Insight That's Relevant in 2020 - 10th Aug 20
Debt and Dollar Collapse Leading to Potential Stock Market Melt-Up, - 10th Aug 20
Coronavirus: UK Parents Demand ALL Schools OPEN September, 7 Million Children Abandoned by Teachers - 9th Aug 20
Computer GPU Fans Not Spinning Quick FIX - Sticky Fans Solution - 9th Aug 20
Find the Best Speech Converter for You - 9th Aug 20
Silver Bull Market Update - 7th Aug 20
This Inflation-Adjusted Silver Chart Tells An Interesting Story - 7th Aug 20
The Great American Housing Boom Has Begun - 7th Aug 20
NATURAL GAS BEGINS UPSIDE BREAKOUT MOVE - 7th Aug 20
Know About Lotteries With The Best Odds Of Winning - 7th Aug 20
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
ARE YOU LOVING YOUR SERVITUDE? - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Credit Collapse - May 10th

Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch May 10, 2007 - 10:47 PM GMT

By: Paul_Lamont

Interest-Rates On May 10 th 1837 , the banks of New York suspended gold and silver payments for their notes. Fear ignited bank runs throughout the United States . The young country fell into a 7 year depression. How could two decades of prosperity end so suddenly? According to America : A Narrative History : “monetary inflation had fueled an era of speculation in real estate, canals, and railroad stocks.” Cracks in the dam were visible much earlier, as the stock market peaked in inflation-adjusted value three years prior. According to Rolf Nef, debt levels in the private sector rose to 150% of GDP. In late 1836, the Bank of England concerned with inflation raised interest rates. As rates rose in England , credit tightened, and U.S. asset prices began to fall.


On May 10 th , investors panicked and scrambled for cash. “By the fall of 1837 one third of the work force was jobless, and those still fortunate to have jobs saw their wages fall 30-50% within 2 years. At the same time, prices for food and clothing soared.” Murray Rothbard in A History of Money and Banking in the United States described the impact on financial institutions: “unsound banks were finally eliminated; unsound investments generated in the boom were liquidated. The number of banks fell during these years by 23 percent.”

2007

Much like in 1837, the stock market peaked in inflation-adjusted value years ago (in 2000). Private debt levels are now over 250% of GDP . Dr. Marc Faber has recently described the current environment as a buying frenzy or buying panic during which investors collectively believe that they can play the asset inflation game until it stops and then all get out profitably at the same time.” Others are noting similarities to the credit boom of the 1830s. Edward Chancellor, author of Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation , has recently penned a second book titled Crunch Time for Credit . According to Chancellor, “The growth of credit has created an illusory prosperity while producing profound imbalances in the British and American economies...

When credit ceases to grow, the weakened state of these economies will become apparent." Chancellor warns: "It will also become clear that the credit boom, by inflating asset prices and boosting profits, has lead to inappropriate balance sheets (both for the private sector and in general). At some stage, balance sheets will have to be adjusted to face a new reality. The process of adjustment is likely to be painful. It may well end in either an extraordinary deflation...or an extraordinary inflation." As our readers know, we first expect deflation as the asset bubble fizzles. The economy has already started the painful adjustment process in one asset class: real estate.

 

Mortgage Default Crisis Just Starting

The investment herd now believes that residential real estate can fall in value without creating any spillover effects into the rest of the economy. They have forgotten our financial institutions are largely based on real estate loans. As you can see from the chart below, of total loans created since 2002, 20%-50% have been adjustable rate mortgages ‘ARMs'.

In the Reset Schedule below from Credit Suisse, over a trillion dollars in ARMS will adjust in rates over the next 5 years.

We expect more foreclosures as these rates rise. Currently here in Alabama , 18.2% of subprime loans are delinquent according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. As Wells Fargo CEO Richard Kovacevich said in December about the subprime market: ``I am not a forecaster of the future; I'm a historian. And history says this will blow up. It always has. And there will be some blood on the street.'' But whose blood?

Investors ‘Shocked'

UBS, the Swiss bank and largest wealth manager in the world, reported on May 3 rd that they were closing their hedge fund arm Dillon Read Capital Management at a cost of $300 million. The reason? It lost $124 million in the first quarter due to the defaults in the subprime market. Looking back at our last report from April 19 :

“Current ‘thinking' is that financial institutions have passed on much of the mortgage risk to hedge funds. However when hedge funds fail, ‘prime brokers' historically have been forced to accept the hedge fund's losing positions. Illiquid arrangements (for instance credit derivatives) will then be the responsibility of the prime brokers. They will be forced to sell at any price as they try to prevent losses on their own books.”

To reiterate: In a crisis, a financial institution's capital cannot be separated from a hedge fund arm, proprietary trading desk or prime brokerage unit. In a forgotten lesson of history, investment bank Goldman Sachs' Trading Corporation failed due to trading losses in 1929. Goldman Sachs was only resurrected by refocusing the company on investment banking and abandoning trading altogether. But after a long bull market, memories get foggy. Almost 70% of Goldman Sachs' profit in 2006 was earned from trading and principal investments. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are also the two largest prime brokers, whose service includes providing leverage to hedge funds.

How You Should Prepare

Investors should remove investment risk from their portfolio by holding cash. But they should also be moving accounts to financially healthy institutions. Sometime in the near future, as in 1837, there will be a realization point that preservation of funds is paramount in a deleveraging economy.

***Starting in July, our free monthly investment analysis report will require a subscription fee of $40 a month for non-clients. Clients with assets under management will receive reports free of charge. Until July, current free readers may ‘reserve their seat' here for half price ($20 a month). A yearly PayPal billing notice will arrive in an email in June.***

By Paul Lamont
www.LTAdvisors.net

Copyright ©2007 Lamont Trading Advisors, Inc. Paul J. Lamont is President of Lamont Trading Advisors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the State of Alabama . Persons in states outside of Alabama should be aware that we are relying on de minimis contact rules within their respective home state. For more information about our firm, or to receive a copy of our disclosure form ADV, please email us at advrequest@ltadvisors.net, or call (256) 850-4161.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules