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5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Defending Capitalism from Old Europe's G20 Guillotine

Politics / Economic Stimulus Apr 01, 2009 - 11:35 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGermany and especially France have fought long and hard against the anglo-saxon model of unfettered and weakly regulated free market capitalism for the past 30 years, and as a consequence of which have seen their economic power diminish in relative terms as the anglo-saxon capitalism model was adopted world-wide following the collapse of the Soviet Union.


However following the ever growing fraud estimated at more than $10 trillion perpetrated by those running the worlds major financial institutions that had brought the financial system to brink of collapse during September / October 2008, which was only prevented when the tax payers were forced to underwrite the fraud and cover the losses of figment asset valuations that allowed bank officers collectively to bank billions if not trillions in bonuses by utilising "mark to fantasy".

With rioting on the streets across Europe, both Obama and Brown fail to recognise that Mainland Europe is much more susceptible to revolution than the political systems of Britain and the United States, therefore whilst the anglo-saxon's do understand the outrage against the banking sector, however what they cannot understand is that the governments of France and Germany are reacting to the the real threat of political instability by implementing far more socialist policies not only for themselves, but to cripple what has come to be known as casino capitalism so as to shift the balance of power in favour of a less free market based global economy i.e. more government control, regulation and central planning, which will result in lower long-term economic growth and innovation which is inline with their own populations demands, and therefore to prevent capitalism from running amok in the future that forced their own conservative financial institutions to follow the same path towards bankruptcy whilst the governments of France and Germany were labeled as Old Europe, and lectured on how their economic models were obsolete as the New Europe (Eastern Europe) jumped headlong into the unregulated deep end of casino capitalism that always appeared to roll winning double sixes is now firmly rolling losing snake eyes.

Has Elvis or Sarkozy left the Building?

President Sarkozy of France publicly threw his rattle out of the pram by warning that he will walk out of the G20 summit if he does not get his own way. This is a sign of frustration in that despite the Anglo-Saxon model of capitalism having failed, the U.S. and Britain are unlikely to move towards the Franco-German position of a super global regulator that threatens to end casino capitalism once and for all. The consequences of which will be much lower market volatility and long term economic growth as the western economies at least take a giant step towards a global socialist economic and regulatory model.

However the United States and Britain have illustrated by their actions rather than their words that they intend on preserving casino capitalism in more or less the form that led to the financial crisis in the first place, and since the United States still carries much of the clout as the worlds financial and economic super power, coupled with its trustworthy air-craft carrier Britannia off the shores of Europe, then the U.S. and Britain are expected to get their way during the G20 meeting, despite the rhetoric from old Europe as the fact of the matter is that much of what will be discussed at the summit has already been agreed upon before hand for there was NO ROOM for FAILURE or significant DISAGREEMENTs, as the consequences of FAILURE would be to wake up to another day of potential FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON when markets would again panic in reaction to summit failure. Therefore much noise from the French and German leaders, but they will still sign on the dotted line.

Fiscal Stimulus, China Leads the Way

The prime objective of the G20 summit is towards co-ordinated fiscal stimulus across the global economies to stimulate economic demand along the lines of United States which has committed to spending 5% of GDP, Germany at 2%, Japan at 2.5%, and despite the Brown rhetoric Britain's fiscal boost lags at just 1.4%. Unfortunately the problem with Britain and much of mainland Europe is the size of the welfare states that do not give much room for fiscal stimulus, because as unemployment rises so does government spending and hence the budget deficits widen, and there in lies the problem of huge budget deficits, which means prolonged economic pain for many years.

However all stimulus to date pale into insignificance against China's fiscal boost of 13% of GDP, which suggests investors should continue to eye China as the prime investment destination with the country most likely to continue to generate economic growth. My call as of September 2008 to buy China at SSE 2,000 has so far yielded 20%, which itself followed analysis and a call to sell China at SSE 6,000 in November 2007. China has continued to show relative strength against other markets and therefore confirming analysis of continued accumulation.

The western country with the most potential is Germany, however it is clear from Germany's actions that it is willing to endure economic contraction so as to preserve the export based economic model rather than attempting to inflate the german economy by means of local consumption. The key annoyance to the American's and others on negative trade terms to Germany is that in effect Germany is seeking to ride on the back of the stimulus packages of other countries that induce their respective populations to in part consume german goods and services, which therefore boosts the german economy without the German government undertaking domestic spending, however the problem with the German strategy is that it risks igniting protectionism.

Will it work ?

The problem at the root of the crisis is I warned of a year ago is the off the balance sheet derivatives exposure that is many orders of magnitude greater than the stimulus packages of approx $3 trillion, were talking about sums north of $600 trillions. Therefore as warned off in April 2008 when the Bank of England made the first loan of £50 billion to the bankrupt banks, that it was a drop in the ocean and I just cannot see how even $3 trillion, or $5 trillion or even fiat currencies busting amount of $10 trillion can counter a $600 trillion imploding derivatives market. This to me, means very high inflation, as the only option the governments have to spend money the governments do not have, and therefore increased debt, print money to spend and monetize government debt and finance bailouts, will it result in hyperinflation ?, we'll we don't need to be at Zimbabwe style hyper inflation to see our savings wiped out by inflation. An annualised inflation rate north of 10% AFTER the current deflation will be bad enough to discourage savings and holding of fiat currencies, which supports my mega-trends outlook to take the current deflation as an opportunity to invest in commodities at bargain basement levels as well as prepare for much higher interest rates and hence lower bond prices.

Stealth Bull Market Quick Update

The stock market corrected inline with last weeks analysis (24th March 2009) that called for a 33% retracement from the stealth bull market peak which was necessary in advance of the next spike higher.

"Which implies that the correction IS IMMINENT. The decline should be just enough to convince of the mass of prevailing bearish commentaries that the retest of the low is actually going to happen, which therefore suggests a correction of as much as 33% of the RALLY (i.e. move from 6470), just enough, just enough to get the shorts in before the Stealth Bull market lets rip with the next powerful shock and awe rally."

However, it remains to be seen for how much longer I can remain in sync with the market to this degree, as the following the spike higher the markets by definition of the rule of alternating trends must target a much less probable and less easily recognisable price pattern than the relatively easy to deduce and trade pattern observed to date, which I will publish during the next week or so following an update to the gold road map / forecast trend of 21st Jan 09 (graph below).

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By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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Comments

Thomas Allen
03 Apr 09, 21:09
Defending Capitalism

I keep hearing about this unregulated economy that the US have. It may lack the intensive regulation of France and Germany, but it is a long way from a deregulated free market. In 1971, the Code of Federal Regulations with which I worked were contained in one or two books. When I retired in 2007, it took more than 15 books to hold the CFR with which I worked. Some deregulation! Some lack of regulation!

We have suffered more from this [fiat paper money] than from every other cause of calamity; it has killed more men, pervaded and corrupted the choicest interests of our country more, and done more injustice than even the arms and artifices of our enemies. -- Pelatiah Webster

Cui bono

Thomas Allen

Yours unreconstructed.

Writing from the United States of Soviet America with its Marxist regime.

As the United States now have their first Kenyan born Indonesian citizen as President, Barry Soetoro, a.k.a. Barack Obama, has proven his cousin George W. Bush correct: The Constitution is just a g- d- piece of paper.


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