Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Redefining Political Economy, Globalization & Business Models Consequent on Corona Virus Pandemics - 9th Apr 20
Plus500 Rreview - 9th Apr 20
Gold Price Closely Tracks Debt-to-GDP Ratio - 9th Apr 20
Gold, Silver and Rigged Market Socialism - 9th Apr 20
Going to School in Lockdown Britain, Dobcroft Sheffield - 9th Apr 20
Amazon Face Masks to Protect Against Covid-19 Viral Particles N95, FPP2, PM2.5, for Kids and Adults - 9th Apr 20
Is Natural Gas Price Ready For An April Rally? - 8th Apr 20
Market Predictions And The Business Implications - 8th Apr 20
When Will UK Coronavirus Crisis Imrpove - Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory Analysis - 8th Apr 20
BBC Newsnight Focuses on Tory Leadership Whilst Boris Johnson Fights for his Life! - 8th Apr 20
The Big Short Guides us to What is Next for the Stock Market - 8th Apr 20
USD Index Sheds Light on the Upcoming Gold Move - 8th Apr 20
The Post CoronaVirus New Normal - 8th Apr 20
US Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Forecast Current State - 7th Apr 20
Boris Johnson Fighting for his Life In Intensive Care - UK Coronavirus Crisis - 7th Apr 20
Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up! - 7th Apr 20
Crude Oil's 2020 Crash: See What Helped (Some) Traders Pivot Just in Time - 7th Apr 20
Was the Fed Just Nationalized? - 7th Apr 20
Gold & Silver Mines Closed as Physical Silver Becomes “Most Undervalued Asset” - 7th Apr 20
US Coronavirus Blacktop Politics - 7th Apr 20
Coronavirus is America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment, There Will be a Reckoning With China - 6th Apr 20
Coronavirus Crisis Exposes Consequences of Fed Policy: Americans Have No Savings - 6th Apr 20
The Stock Market Is Not a Magic Money Machine - 6th Apr 20
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! - 6th Apr 20
How Can Writing Business Essay Help You In Business Analytics Skills - 6th Apr 20
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Carpet Bombs the Bears

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market Mar 24, 2009 - 01:09 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleStocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2- The stealth bull market in a not quite as stealthy manner as I would have liked decided to carpet bomb the bears with a powerful 500 point up thrust that has left many speculators and analysts that are not participating in the rally stunned into inaction as the smart investors continued to accumulate in the face of overwhelming majority of frightened investors to scared to participate in the face of continuing overwhelming bearish data and mis-information most notably evident in the consensus that stock prices will revert to below the mean in terms of corporate earnings.


The mass media jumped on the rally as being as a consequence of the program to remove $1 trillion of bad assets from bank books, however had stocks fallen then the same headlines would have been used to explain the decline. This again reinforces the view to Ignore the Fundamentals ! The News ! The Media ! Just go with the Price !

MSNBC States - "Analysts who have seen the market's recent false starts are still hesitant to say Wall Street is indeed recovering from the collapse that began last fall." - Yes because this IS a Stealth Stocks Bull Market and that is HOW Wall Street analysts and small investors are expected to behave so that they MISS the first 20%, 30%, 40% perhaps 50% and then are left waiting for the second coming... The Retest!

The Dow's close at 7776 now puts the Dow up by 20% from its bear market bottom of 6470, a brief recap of analysis to date:

1. Stocks Bear market Bottom forecast - 20th Jan 2009 - Target 6,600. Warning that the bear market bottom WILL be accompanied by overwhelming and highly convincing bearish fundamentals that speculators / investors will need to ignore to prevent themselves from missing out on the BOTTOM.

2. Stocks Bear Market Target Fulfilled - 8th March 2009 - Dow 6526. Preparing for a spike higher that was expected to trigger the first of a series of buy triggers to start accumulating - As you MUST WAIT for Entry Triggers, so as to give the trades a greater probability of success, and again the message to IGNORE the media / fundamentals.

3. Stocks Stealth Bull Market Born - 15th March 2009 - Dow Bear Market Bottom confirmed on multiple buy triggers during the week - Warning to ignore the fundamentals or should I say fundamentalism, bearish commentary and in many cases double speak in favour to reacting to the ACTUAL PRICE movements.

I have received many emails comments regarding buy / sell triggers, however it is pointless having triggers to act on if one does not have the confidence to pull them AT THE TIME, you are only going to get the confidence to act on triggers IF YOU GENERATE THEM YOURSELVES ! Therefore it is no good for readers to feed off such triggers, as everything can be second guessed AFTER the fact, AS there should be NO second guessing at the TIME the PRICE HITS the Triggers, the whole point if having triggers is for Black or White decisions not shades of gray, which requires the trader to be in a state of mind where at the point in time that price hits the triggers one is 100% confident and committed to executing the trades WITHOUT thought. In this respect I do intend to write a book that will lay out my methodology and eventually at walayatstreet.com, readers can learn by example and PRACTICE, the importance of training yourself to trust in the process of initiating market positions based on self generated prices triggers and then rely on the price action to either reinforce (accumulate) market positions or distribute (liquidate) market positions. Which basically means the reason why you entered is not nearly as important as how you act once the position is on! Instead, I would guess that many reading this tend to be consumed by second guessing a position AFTER it has been initiated. Click here to post / view comments on the Stealth Bull Market.

Stock Market Retest of the Lows ?

Yes off course there will be correction against this powerful up-thrust, in fact if I think about it, I am generating tighter sell triggers than earlier in the rally which gave the positions room to breath, which implies that the correction IS IMMINENT. The decline should be just enough to convince of the mass of prevailing bearish commentaries that the retest of the low is actually going to happen, which therefore suggests a correction of as much as 33% of the RALLY (i.e. move from 6470), just enough, just enough to get the shorts in before the Stealth Bull market lets rip with the next powerful shock and awe rally.

Bull Market Year End Target

My original analysis suggested 30% gain off the low by year end, though last week I did state that a rally of 50% by year end would not surprise me. However this early in the trend and without actually witnessing a significant correction so far, it is not easy to extrapolate an year end target other than the 20% break higher in less than 3 weeks is suggestive of an eventual rally that is nearer 50% by year end. Robert Pretcher gave his take on the prospects for a Bear Market Bottom or not in a 30 minute video that can be freely viewed.

U.S. Dollar Imminent Collapse.. Again? - Update 5

The fall in the U.S. Dollar in the wake of the "Quantitative Easing" headlines has brought the Dollar collapse proponents back out of hibernation. However the actual dollar trend has shown little if any deviation from the road map of 20th Jan 09 as illustrated by the below original price chart which therefore at this point in time does not warrant an indepth update.

The USD continuous to target a move to USD 81, my own view is that there will be some overshoot to the downside to perhaps 79 in advance of the next leg higher. Again, I say at this point in time contrary to the dollar doom calls there is little evidence on the charts that the USD Bull Market has ended as the Dollar continues to consolidate during the first half of 2009 as originally envisaged, and therefore my expectations remain for the Dollar to bounce off of the low in the region of USD 79-80. So Dollar Collapse Hunters BEWARE!

More analysis on the USD

1. March 2008 - Dollar Bear Market Bottom called, initial target of 80. ( DELEVERAGING- Gold and Commodities Teetering on the Brink of a Bear Market?)

2. August 2008 - Dollar Base building complete - breakout targeting USD 80 ( The US Dollar Bull Market )

3. October 2008 - Expecting USD to correct after rallying to between 87and 90, targeting support at 80, to be followed by a resumption of the up trend targeting USD 92. ( U.S. Dollar Bull Market Update )

4. January 2009 - USD Sideways consolidation with an upward bias for the first half of 2009 (US Dollar Bull Market 2009 Update 4)

Subscribe to my always FREE Newsletter to get the latest analysis in you inbox

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Attention Editors and Publishers! - You have permission to republish THIS article. Republished articles must include attribution to the author and links back to the http://www.marketoracle.co.uk . Please send an email to republish@marketoracle.co.uk, to include a link to the published article.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

j_remington
30 Mar 09, 08:46
Today is the beginnning of the next down wave

Now the stealth bear awakens.


Nadeem_Walayat
30 Mar 09, 12:38
Stealth Bull Market

A correction at this point is extremely healthy for the stealth bull market as elaborated above.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules