Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Climate Change Mass Extinction - Birds, Bees and Bugs: Going Going Gone - Richard_Mills
2.A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! - Peter_Degraaf
3.Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 - F_F_Wiley
4.America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - Raymond_Matison
5.Gold Price Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
6.Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - Richard_Mills
8.Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - Jeb_Handwerger
9.Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - Troy_Bombardia
10.G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
SPX/Gold, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve 3 Amigos Update - 22nd Jun 18
Gold - How Long Can This Last? - 22nd Jun 18
Dow Has Fallen 8 days in a Row. Medium-long Term Bullish for Stocks - 22nd Jun 18
Trouble Spotting Market Trends? This Can Help - 22nd Jun 18
Financial Markets Analysis and Trend Forecasts 2018 - A Message from Nadeem Walayat - 21st Jun 18
SPX Bouncing Above Support - 21st Jun 18
Things You Need To Know If You Want To Invest In Bitcoin Now - 21st Jun 18
The NASDAQ’s Outperformance vs. the Dow is Very Bullish - 21st Jun 18
Warning All Investors: Global Stock Market Are Shifting Away From US Price Correlation - 20th Jun 18
Gold GLD ETF Update… Breakdown ? - 20th Jun 18
Short-term Turnaround in Bitcoin Might Not Be What You Think - 19th Jun 18
Stock Market’s Short Term Downside Will be Limited - 19th Jun 18
Natural Gas Setup for 32% Move in UGAZ Fund - 19th Jun 18
Magnus Collective To Empower Automation And Artificial Intelligence - 19th Jun 18
Trump A Bull in a China Shop - 19th Jun 18
Minor Car Accident! What Happens After You Report Your Accident to Your Insurer - 19th Jun 18
US Majors Flush Out A Major Pivot Low and What’s Next - 18th Jun 18
Cocoa Commodities Trading Analysis - 18th Jun 18
Stock Market Consolidating in an Uptrend - 18th Jun 18
Russell Has Gone Up 7 Weeks in a Row. EXTREMELY Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jun 18
What Happens Next to Stocks when Tech Massively Outperforms Utilities and Consumer Staples - 18th Jun 18
The Trillion Dollar Market You’ve Never Heard Of - 18th Jun 18
The Corruption of Capitalism - 17th Jun 18
North Korea, Trade Wars, Precious Metals and Bitcoin - 17th Jun 18
Climate Change and Fish Stocks – Burning Oxygen! - 17th Jun 18
A $1,180 Ticket to NEW Trading Opportunities, FREE! - 16th Jun 18
Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Jun 18
Respite for Bitcoin Traders Might Be Deceptive - 16th Jun 18
The Euro Crashed Yesterday. Bearish for Euro and Bullish for USD - 15th Jun 18
Inflation Trade, in Progress Since Gold Kicked it Off - 15th Jun 18
Can Saudi Arabia Prevent The Next Oil Shock? - 15th Jun 18
The Biggest Online Gambling Companies - 15th Jun 18
Powell's Excess Reserve Change and Gold - 15th Jun 18
Is This a Big Sign of a Big Stock Market Turn? - 15th Jun 18
Will Italy Sink the EU and Boost Gold? - 15th Jun 18
Bumper Crash! Land Rover Discovery Sport vs Audi - 15th Jun 18
Stock Market Topping Pattern or Just Pause Before Going Higher? - 14th Jun 18
Is the ECB Ending QE a Good Thing? Markets Think So - 14th Jun 18
Yield Curve Continues to Flatten. A Bullish Sign for the Stock Market - 14th Jun 18
How Online Gambling has Impacted the Economy - 14th Jun 18
Crude Oil Price Targeting $58 ppb Before Finding Support - 14th Jun 18
Stock Market Near Another Top? - 14th Jun 18
Thorpe Park REAL Walking Dead Living Nightmare Zombie Car Park Ride Experience! - 14th Jun 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Carpet Bombs the Bears

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market Mar 24, 2009 - 01:09 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleStocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2- The stealth bull market in a not quite as stealthy manner as I would have liked decided to carpet bomb the bears with a powerful 500 point up thrust that has left many speculators and analysts that are not participating in the rally stunned into inaction as the smart investors continued to accumulate in the face of overwhelming majority of frightened investors to scared to participate in the face of continuing overwhelming bearish data and mis-information most notably evident in the consensus that stock prices will revert to below the mean in terms of corporate earnings.


The mass media jumped on the rally as being as a consequence of the program to remove $1 trillion of bad assets from bank books, however had stocks fallen then the same headlines would have been used to explain the decline. This again reinforces the view to Ignore the Fundamentals ! The News ! The Media ! Just go with the Price !

MSNBC States - "Analysts who have seen the market's recent false starts are still hesitant to say Wall Street is indeed recovering from the collapse that began last fall." - Yes because this IS a Stealth Stocks Bull Market and that is HOW Wall Street analysts and small investors are expected to behave so that they MISS the first 20%, 30%, 40% perhaps 50% and then are left waiting for the second coming... The Retest!

The Dow's close at 7776 now puts the Dow up by 20% from its bear market bottom of 6470, a brief recap of analysis to date:

1. Stocks Bear market Bottom forecast - 20th Jan 2009 - Target 6,600. Warning that the bear market bottom WILL be accompanied by overwhelming and highly convincing bearish fundamentals that speculators / investors will need to ignore to prevent themselves from missing out on the BOTTOM.

2. Stocks Bear Market Target Fulfilled - 8th March 2009 - Dow 6526. Preparing for a spike higher that was expected to trigger the first of a series of buy triggers to start accumulating - As you MUST WAIT for Entry Triggers, so as to give the trades a greater probability of success, and again the message to IGNORE the media / fundamentals.

3. Stocks Stealth Bull Market Born - 15th March 2009 - Dow Bear Market Bottom confirmed on multiple buy triggers during the week - Warning to ignore the fundamentals or should I say fundamentalism, bearish commentary and in many cases double speak in favour to reacting to the ACTUAL PRICE movements.

I have received many emails comments regarding buy / sell triggers, however it is pointless having triggers to act on if one does not have the confidence to pull them AT THE TIME, you are only going to get the confidence to act on triggers IF YOU GENERATE THEM YOURSELVES ! Therefore it is no good for readers to feed off such triggers, as everything can be second guessed AFTER the fact, AS there should be NO second guessing at the TIME the PRICE HITS the Triggers, the whole point if having triggers is for Black or White decisions not shades of gray, which requires the trader to be in a state of mind where at the point in time that price hits the triggers one is 100% confident and committed to executing the trades WITHOUT thought. In this respect I do intend to write a book that will lay out my methodology and eventually at walayatstreet.com, readers can learn by example and PRACTICE, the importance of training yourself to trust in the process of initiating market positions based on self generated prices triggers and then rely on the price action to either reinforce (accumulate) market positions or distribute (liquidate) market positions. Which basically means the reason why you entered is not nearly as important as how you act once the position is on! Instead, I would guess that many reading this tend to be consumed by second guessing a position AFTER it has been initiated. Click here to post / view comments on the Stealth Bull Market.

Stock Market Retest of the Lows ?

Yes off course there will be correction against this powerful up-thrust, in fact if I think about it, I am generating tighter sell triggers than earlier in the rally which gave the positions room to breath, which implies that the correction IS IMMINENT. The decline should be just enough to convince of the mass of prevailing bearish commentaries that the retest of the low is actually going to happen, which therefore suggests a correction of as much as 33% of the RALLY (i.e. move from 6470), just enough, just enough to get the shorts in before the Stealth Bull market lets rip with the next powerful shock and awe rally.

Bull Market Year End Target

My original analysis suggested 30% gain off the low by year end, though last week I did state that a rally of 50% by year end would not surprise me. However this early in the trend and without actually witnessing a significant correction so far, it is not easy to extrapolate an year end target other than the 20% break higher in less than 3 weeks is suggestive of an eventual rally that is nearer 50% by year end. Robert Pretcher gave his take on the prospects for a Bear Market Bottom or not in a 30 minute video that can be freely viewed.

U.S. Dollar Imminent Collapse.. Again? - Update 5

The fall in the U.S. Dollar in the wake of the "Quantitative Easing" headlines has brought the Dollar collapse proponents back out of hibernation. However the actual dollar trend has shown little if any deviation from the road map of 20th Jan 09 as illustrated by the below original price chart which therefore at this point in time does not warrant an indepth update.

The USD continuous to target a move to USD 81, my own view is that there will be some overshoot to the downside to perhaps 79 in advance of the next leg higher. Again, I say at this point in time contrary to the dollar doom calls there is little evidence on the charts that the USD Bull Market has ended as the Dollar continues to consolidate during the first half of 2009 as originally envisaged, and therefore my expectations remain for the Dollar to bounce off of the low in the region of USD 79-80. So Dollar Collapse Hunters BEWARE!

More analysis on the USD

1. March 2008 - Dollar Bear Market Bottom called, initial target of 80. ( DELEVERAGING- Gold and Commodities Teetering on the Brink of a Bear Market?)

2. August 2008 - Dollar Base building complete - breakout targeting USD 80 ( The US Dollar Bull Market )

3. October 2008 - Expecting USD to correct after rallying to between 87and 90, targeting support at 80, to be followed by a resumption of the up trend targeting USD 92. ( U.S. Dollar Bull Market Update )

4. January 2009 - USD Sideways consolidation with an upward bias for the first half of 2009 (US Dollar Bull Market 2009 Update 4)

Subscribe to my always FREE Newsletter to get the latest analysis in you inbox

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Attention Editors and Publishers! - You have permission to republish THIS article. Republished articles must include attribution to the author and links back to the http://www.marketoracle.co.uk . Please send an email to republish@marketoracle.co.uk, to include a link to the published article.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

j_remington
30 Mar 09, 08:46
Today is the beginnning of the next down wave

Now the stealth bear awakens.


Nadeem_Walayat
30 Mar 09, 12:38
Stealth Bull Market

A correction at this point is extremely healthy for the stealth bull market as elaborated above.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules