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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Russia

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Politics

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Why is Russia Destroying Its Food? / Politics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

Forecast

  • A Kremlin crackdown on food imports that violate Russian sanctions will continue to draw criticism throughout Russia.
  • If the Kremlin continues with its crackdown, protests will expand.
  • To limit the backlash, Moscow may opt for sporadic crackdowns rather than systematic enforcement of food sanctions.
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Politics

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Why Russia Will Send More Troops to Central Asia / Politics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

Russia is making a concerted effort to increase its military and security presence throughout Central Asia, just not for the reasons it would have you think. Though the Kremlin is concerned with the threat of spillover violence from Islamist militancy in Afghanistan — its purported motive for deploying more troops — it is far more alarmed by what it sees as Chinese and Western encroachment into lands over which it has long held sway. It is this concern that will shape Moscow's behavior in Central Asia in the years to come.

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Politics

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Russia Targets NATO With New Military Exercises / Politics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

Russian military exercises, the latest in a series across the country, have taken on a threatening posture. While the most recent installment is not the largest exercise Russia has conducted, the areas involved and the forces included seem to have been deliberately chosen to send a warning to NATO; the exercise itself seems to simulate a full-scale confrontation with NATO through the forward deployment of nuclear armed submarines, theater ballistic missiles and strategic bomber aircraft. Strategic weapon systems, including assets that are part of Russia's nuclear capabilities, have also been deployed to locations near NATO's borders.

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Politics

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Can Putin Survive? / Politics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

George Friedman writes: There is a general view that Vladimir Putin governs the Russian Federation as a dictator, that he has defeated and intimidated his opponents and that he has marshaled a powerful threat to surrounding countries. This is a reasonable view, but perhaps it should be re-evaluated in the context of recent events.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 16, 2015

The Russian Banking Crisis / Interest-Rates / Russia

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We have shown so far that all ruble crises were accompanied by a strong U.S. dollar and low oil prices. We have concluded that Russia's current problems resemble those from 1998, though possibly even more severe than seventeen years ago, because the biggest country in the world is cut off from the international funding. But what about the following banking crisis in Russia?

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Will the 1998 Russian Financial Meltdown Repeat Itself? / Stock-Markets / Russia

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

History never repeats itself exactly, but many similarities between the past and the current Russian crisis suggest that the eastern bear could significantly falter in the future:

  1. The collapse of the ruble and its scope (Graph 2). The ruble lost over two thirds of its value in 1998. In 2014 it has lost more than half of its value against the dollar. Also the ruble’s unusual one-day falls are similar: Russian currency plunged 22 percent December 15 and 16, 2014 -an echo of the 27 percent fall August 17, 1998.
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Currencies

Tuesday, February 03, 2015

The Short Story of Past Russian Financial Crises / Currencies / Russia

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In the last Market Overview we wrote about falling commodity prices and problems of emerging markets resulting from the strong U.S. dollar. In this edition we would like to focus on the Russian economy, which suffers from both problems. Declines in oil prices erase a great deal of government revenue, while at the same time the rise in the U.S. dollar to ruble exchange rate threatens the solvency of indebted banks and companies. Because Russia’s financial instability can affect other markets that lend money to Russian companies, we have to analyze what the wounded eastern bear could really mean to the global economy and gold market.

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Politics

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Russia's Plans for Arctic Supremacy / Politics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

Although the crisis in Ukraine continues to focus attention on Russia's western border, Moscow is seeking to exploit a more lucrative prize along its vast northern frontage: the Arctic Circle. Melting ice has opened up new transit routes and revealed previously inaccessible oil and mineral deposits. Facing a year of harsh economic constraints, securing exploitable energy reserves remains a top priority for Moscow. The planned militarization of the Arctic is already underway, and funding is secured through 2015 (the Ministry of Defense was the only Kremlin ministry not to be curtailed in the most recent budget.) With Russia aiming to consolidate its strength by the end of the year, surrounding countries are already reassessing their positions in the face of an overwhelming regional force. 

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Currencies

Thursday, January 15, 2015

What About the Russian Ruble? / Currencies / Russia

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The Russian ruble ended 2014 in bad shape. Not as bad as the Ukrainian hryvnia or the Venezuelan bolivar, but bad, nevertheless. For most of 2014, Russia faced an ever-increasing ratcheting up of economic sanctions. These set the stage for what was to come late in the year: the collapse of oil prices and the announcement on November 10th that the ruble would be allowed to float. When combined, these three ingredients created a perfect storm.

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Politics

Wednesday, January 07, 2015

Oil Price Blowback - Is Putin Creating a New World Order? / Politics / Russia

By: Mike_Whitney

It’s hard to know which country is going to suffer the most from falling oil prices. Up to now, of course, Russia, Iran and Venezuela have taken the biggest hit, but that will probably change as time goes on. What the Obama administration should be worried about is the second-order effects that will eventually show up in terms of higher unemployment, market volatility, and wobbly bank balance sheets. That’s where the real damage is going to crop up because that’s where red ink and bad loans can metastasize into a full-blown financial crisis. Check out this blurb from Nick Cunningham at Oilprice.com and you’ll see what I mean:

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Politics

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Russia's SWIFT Settlement Alternative  / Politics / Russia

By: BATR

The SWIFT System is an integral part of a communication process that assists payment and clearing of financial transactions. The Corporate-to-Bank site defines it in the following manner and provides several examples of Payment, Clearing and Settlement Systems.

“The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, Societe Cooperative a Responsabilite Limitee (limited co-operative society) (“SWIFT”) is a member-owned co-operative. SWIFT provides a telecommunication platform for the exchange of standardized financial messages between financial institutions and corporations. SWIFT is neither a payment system nor a settlement system though the SWIFT messaging standard is used in many payment and settlement systems. SWIFT’s customers include banks, market infrastructures, broker-dealers, corporates, custodians, and investment managers. SWIFT is subject to oversight by the central banks of the Group of Ten countries.”

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Politics

Friday, December 26, 2014

Putin: It Is Time to Play Your Ace in the Hole / Politics / Russia

By: Ron_Holland

You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done.
"The Gambler" by Kenny Rogers

The entire world is watching Putin play poker with the Western politicians lead by Obama and followed by Washington quislings in London, Brussels and Berlin. America's goal since the end of the Cold War has been to weaken by financial, economic and, if necessary, military means any real competition to its global financial and resource domination through the petrodollar and dollar world reserve currency status.

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Companies

Monday, December 22, 2014

Why It's Way Too Early to Count Out Putin - and Russia / Companies / Russia

By: Money_Morning

Peter Krauth writes: Don't underestimate Vladimir Putin: he knows how to fight back.

And right now, that trait might be all that keeps Russia from a catastrophic collapse.

The facts on the ground in Russia are, at best, chaotic…

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Politics

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Ruble Takedown Exposes Cracks in Putin’s Defense / Politics / Russia

By: Mike_Whitney

Russian President Vladimir Putin suffered a stunning defeat on Tuesday when a US-backed plan to push down oil prices sent the ruble into freefall. Russia’s currency plunged 10 percent on Monday followed by an 11 percent drop on Tuesday reducing the ruble’s value by more than half in less than a year. The jarring slide was assisted by western sympathizers at Russia’s Central Bank who, earlier in the day, boosted interest rates from 10.5 percent to 17 percent to slow the decline. But the higher rates only intensified the outflow of capital which put the ruble into a tailspin forcing international banks to remove pricing and liquidity from the currency leading to the suspension of trade. According to Russia Today:

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Currencies

Saturday, December 20, 2014

The Link between the Ruble and Keynes / Currencies / Russia

By: Steve_H_Hanke

On March 3, 2014, the United States went to war with Russia. That’s when the U.S. first imposed sanctions. And, yes, sanctions are nothing more than war by non-military means. Then, on November 11 Russia committed a major misstep. It floated the ruble. Since then, the ruble hasn’t floated on a sea of tranquility. It has plunged in lockstep with oil — by about 25% and its volatility has soared to around 65%.

The ruble’s plunge means that Russian imports will be more expensive and exports more competitive. This combination will help keep Russia’s current account positive, which will offset some of Russia’s massive capital flight.

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Politics

Friday, December 19, 2014

Is Russia Being Driven Into the Arms of China? / Politics / Russia

By: GoldCore

The “isolation of Russia” idea is one which has been receiving a lot of traction of late. Russia’s recent economic woes have sometimes been covered with barely contained glee despite the hardships that average Russians may have to endure if the rouble continues to collapse … not to mention the inevitable geo-political backlash.

Russia has become isolated from its western neighbours on account of the putsch in Ukraine which led to the predominantly ethnically Russian Crimea seceding from Kiev through a democratic process.

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Politics

Friday, December 19, 2014

Putin's Kremlin Q&A Show / Politics / Russia

By: Andrew_McKillop

Not the BBC Version
This was billed as Vladimir Putin's end-of-year question and answer session for the press, pressure groups, the public, and anybody else who is interested in Russia. The BBC however, true to its role of unsinkable US aircraft carrier anchored near Calais, rivaling Israel's role in the so-called American "empire", treated Putin's Q & A session as a rather pathetic attempt to ignore the US-led attempt to destroy the Russian economy. The BBC screened only 15 minutes of Putin's conference, ignoring the other 2 hours of Q & A. BBC News TV had former UK ambassador to Russia, Andrew Wood, in its early-morning studios to proclaim Putin's death sentence.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Companies

Friday, December 19, 2014

Chaos Mounts in Russia. Here's What Investors Can Do… / Companies / Russia

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: The collapse in oil prices has exposed some vulnerable economies. All of them are dependent upon crude export sales to maintain even the appearance of a national budget.

As you might expect, every member of OPEC falls into this group, although Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have sufficient reserves that will allow them to carry sizable budget deficits for some time.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

How to Profit From Russia's Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Russia

By: Money_Morning

The collapse in oil prices has exposed some vulnerable economies. All of them are dependent upon crude export sales to maintain even the appearance of a national budget.

As you might expect, every member of OPEC falls into this group, although Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have sufficient reserves that will allow them to carry sizable budget deficits for some time.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Viewing Russia From the Inside / Politics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

George Friedman writes: Last week I flew into Moscow, arriving at 4:30 p.m. on Dec. 8. It gets dark in Moscow around that time, and the sun doesn't rise until about 10 a.m. at this time of the year — the so-called Black Days versus White Nights. For anyone used to life closer to the equator, this is unsettling. It is the first sign that you are not only in a foreign country, which I am used to, but also in a foreign environment. Yet as we drove toward downtown Moscow, well over an hour away, the traffic, the road work, were all commonplace. Moscow has three airports, and we flew into the farthest one from downtown, Domodedovo — the primary international airport. There is endless renovation going on in Moscow, and while it holds up traffic, it indicates that prosperity continues, at least in the capital.

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