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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Russia

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Politics

Thursday, June 01, 2017

Russia’s Disinformation Seems To Work—But It Doesn’t / Politics / Russia

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : From its founding, the Soviet Union ran campaigns designed to destabilize and neutralize potential enemies. Disinformation was and is the name of the game.

After the Russian Revolution, Lenin founded the Third International to support Communist parties around the world. Soviet intelligence ran disinformation campaigns. These campaigns were designed to undermine national governments, to discredit leading figures, and so on.

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Politics

Monday, April 10, 2017

A Brave New World for the Kremlin / Politics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

Every country faces generational change. Evolutions in technology, culture, social mores and global affairs can leave a gulf between young and old that neither can easily bridge. In Russia, that gulf is especially vast. As of this year, 27 percent of Russians were born after the fall of the Soviet Union, and that number will jump to nearly 40 percent within the next decade. The rising generation was never Sovietized. Most of them, moreover, are too young to remember the tumultuous 1990s, a decade of war, financial crisis and political disarray. Unlike the older generations, they don't recall President Vladimir Putin's promises to save Russia or the measures he took to stabilize the country after its post-Soviet tailspin. In fact, they've never really known life without him. For Putin, the situation poses an unfamiliar challenge.

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Politics

Monday, March 27, 2017

Russia Crisis - Maps That Signal Growing Instability and Unrest / Politics / Russia

By: John_Mauldin

About one year from now, on March 18, 2018, Russia will hold a presidential election. This will take place against the backdrop of an economic crisis that will continue to plague the country in the coming year.

Russia's biggest challenges will be internal, and the countryside will show more signs of crisis.

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Politics

Monday, February 20, 2017

Warning Signs Of Instability In Russia / Politics / Russia

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : Geopolitical Futures forecasted that 2017 will be “an inflection point in the long-term destabilization of Russia.” After just six weeks, there are clear signs that this forecast is right on track. You can read more about GPF's outlook for Russia in This Week in Geopolitics (subscribe here for free).

Russia has four areas of instability: the distribution and prevalence of wage arrears, pressure on its banking system, low-level social and economic unrest, and government purges.

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Politics

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Trump Not Pro-Russia, Says Its Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman / Politics / Russia

By: Stephen_Lendman

Profiles in courage are absent in Washington, especially on geopolitical issues, notably on relations with Russia.

In January, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Trump is not pro-Russia. She distinguished between Russophobe Hillary Clinton and Trump’s more responsible comments, calling getting along with Russia a good thing.

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Politics

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

The Hunt for Russia's Next Enemy / Politics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

By Ksenia Semenova : Alexander III, the conservative Russian emperor who ruled from 1881 to 1894, once famously remarked to his ministers that Russia has only two allies: its army and its navy. "The others," he said, "will go against us at the first opportunity."

Russian President Vladimir Putin recalled these words in a 2015 speech, adding that he quite agreed with them. At the time, Putin held every card he needed to point to the West and proclaim that the world stood against Russia, leaving it with only its forces for protection. But as the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump moves to embrace Russia and question the West's assumptions about NATO — just as the Europeans have begun to look for warmer ties to the east — Russia's diplomatic environment has started to change. And one thing Putin certainly understands, as Alexander III did, is the Russian government's need for an external enemy. This raises the question: In the new strategic environment that is emerging, who will that enemy be?

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Politics

Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Low Oil Prices Will Make Russia More Aggressive in 2017 / Politics / Russia

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Russia has had a hard time since the collapse of global oil prices which began in August 2014. This will continue in 2017. The Russian people are starting to feel the effects of prolonged low oil prices. This was bound to happen. And this will shape Moscow's foreign policy in the year to come.

Russia’s money problems start with the economy’s structure. The country’s budget depends on income from oil exports. Low oil prices have had huge effects. And the country hasn’t even recovered from the 2008 decline.

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Politics

Monday, December 05, 2016

Russia's Path to Another Resurgence / Politics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

After enduring three years of a foundering economy and feuds with the West, things may be looking up for Russia. The Brexit vote in June exposed the deep discord in the European Union, giving Moscow a glimmer of hope that dissenting member states might break the bloc's consensus on its sanctions against Russia in a future vote on their renewal. Though EU members decided unanimously in July to extend the measures, upcoming elections on the Continent could undermine the bloc's unity. In the United States, meanwhile, Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election has opened a potential path to warmer relations between the United States and Russia, and perhaps even an end to Washington's sanctions on Moscow. The turning political tides in Brussels and Washington could give the Kremlin the leeway to increase its influence in the former Soviet Union, leading the countries in Russia's periphery to re-evaluate their foreign policy positions.

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Politics

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Putin’s Ukraine Strategy Could Lay the Groundwork for War / Politics / Russia

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are growing. According to the Russians, a special operations team from Ukraine attacked Crimea in August. The Ukrainians denied the claim. The Russians appeared to be moving forces around in Crimea and increasing their number and posture.

There have been reports of Russian troop buildups east of their border with Ukraine. There is also an unconfirmed report of Russian troops deploying in pro-Russian, rebel-held territory inside Ukraine. The Russians have done nothing to tamp down tensions.

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Politics

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Why Putin Might Be on His Way Out / Politics / Russia

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Russian President Vladimir Putin recently did three very interesting things.

First, he fired his long-time aide and chief of staff, Sergei Ivanov, and moved him to a lower position. A few weeks earlier, Putin fired at least three regional governors and replaced them with his personal bodyguards.

Removing that many governors is a bit odd. Replacing them with bodyguards is very odd. Then removing someone like Ivanov is extremely odd.

Second, Russia raised pressure on Ukraine. The Russians claimed that Ukrainian special forces attacked Russian-held Crimea. They announced that they sent S-400 anti-air missiles to Crimea. With a 250-mile range, these missiles can reach deep into Ukraine.

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Politics

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Russia: Tensions, Turmoil, and Western Hubris / Politics / Russia

By: Andy_Sutton

"The 3 Big Stories NOT Being Covered – PART 1” With Graham Mehl. Anyone who has read this publication for any length of time knows that topics range from mainstream to the totally uncovered stories. As we look out not just across the economic landscape, but across the world in general, we are seeing an alarming increase of serious situations that are receiving little or no coverage at all from the western media. Thankfully there are hundreds if not thousands of reliable people who chip in with analysis and stories of their own on some of these topics.

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Politics

Sunday, March 20, 2016

Even As Russians Withdraw, Their Legacy in Syria Remains / Politics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

As the departure of Russian forces from Syria announced March 14 continues, evidence of construction at Russia's main air base in the country demonstrates Moscow’s intention to maintain a military presence there. Imagery dated March 17 acquired by Stratfor of the Bassel al Assad air base in Latakia province and the naval base at Tartus highlights the ongoing Russian drawdown of its forces in Syria that Moscow contends will be largely completed by March 20.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Russian Stock Market Great Long Term Buy: Inflation Down 50% YOY / Stock-Markets / Russia

By: Sol_Palha

For a long time, we have been stating that the Sell-off in both the Ruble and the Russian stock market provided the astute investors with a great long-term buying opportunity.  Well, This chart proves that things are getting better and that the Sanctions that the West imposed on Russia at the behest of the America was a stupid idea, but more importantly, it has made Russia even stronger. The chart below is proof of this; inflation is down over 50% year over year. Translation things must be getting better.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 04, 2016

Putin Cries Dyadya (Uncle), Is Saudi Arabia Listening? / Commodities / Russia

By: OilPrice_Com

In recent days, signs of a possible breakthrough in the year-long stand-off between Russia and Saudi Arabia on crude production strategy have emerged. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's dominant member, has long insisted OPEC (read Saudi Arabia) would not reduce output to balance supply and demand absent corresponding cuts from non-OPEC members (read Russia), while Russia has consistently insisted harsh climactic conditions prevent Russian producers from reducing output and in any case Russia insists it could withstand low prices as well as any other country.

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Politics

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Putin’s “Endgame” in Syria / Politics / Russia

By: Mike_Whitney

Russia doesn’t want to fight a war with Turkey, so Russian generals devised a simple, but effective plan to discourage Turkey from taking any action that could lead to a clash between the two nations.

Last week, Russian warplanes intruded into Turkish airspace twice. Both incidents caused consternation in Ankara and send Turkish leaders into a furor. On both occasions, officials in Moscow politely apologized for the incursions claiming they were unintentional (“navigational errors”) and that they would try to avoid similar intrusions in the future.

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Politics

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Why is Russia Destroying Its Food? / Politics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

Forecast

  • A Kremlin crackdown on food imports that violate Russian sanctions will continue to draw criticism throughout Russia.
  • If the Kremlin continues with its crackdown, protests will expand.
  • To limit the backlash, Moscow may opt for sporadic crackdowns rather than systematic enforcement of food sanctions.
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Politics

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Why Russia Will Send More Troops to Central Asia / Politics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

Russia is making a concerted effort to increase its military and security presence throughout Central Asia, just not for the reasons it would have you think. Though the Kremlin is concerned with the threat of spillover violence from Islamist militancy in Afghanistan — its purported motive for deploying more troops — it is far more alarmed by what it sees as Chinese and Western encroachment into lands over which it has long held sway. It is this concern that will shape Moscow's behavior in Central Asia in the years to come.

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Politics

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Russia Targets NATO With New Military Exercises / Politics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

Russian military exercises, the latest in a series across the country, have taken on a threatening posture. While the most recent installment is not the largest exercise Russia has conducted, the areas involved and the forces included seem to have been deliberately chosen to send a warning to NATO; the exercise itself seems to simulate a full-scale confrontation with NATO through the forward deployment of nuclear armed submarines, theater ballistic missiles and strategic bomber aircraft. Strategic weapon systems, including assets that are part of Russia's nuclear capabilities, have also been deployed to locations near NATO's borders.

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Politics

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Can Putin Survive? / Politics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

George Friedman writes: There is a general view that Vladimir Putin governs the Russian Federation as a dictator, that he has defeated and intimidated his opponents and that he has marshaled a powerful threat to surrounding countries. This is a reasonable view, but perhaps it should be re-evaluated in the context of recent events.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 16, 2015

The Russian Banking Crisis / Interest-Rates / Russia

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We have shown so far that all ruble crises were accompanied by a strong U.S. dollar and low oil prices. We have concluded that Russia's current problems resemble those from 1998, though possibly even more severe than seventeen years ago, because the biggest country in the world is cut off from the international funding. But what about the following banking crisis in Russia?

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