Category: Russia
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, June 08, 2020
Russia: How Financial "Complacency" Morphed into "Crisis" / Stock-Markets / Russia
By: EWI
It's been a tough year for Russia financially.
Of course, there's been the big collapse in oil prices, plus -- just like many other global stock indexes -- Russian stocks are well off their highs.
That's quite in contrast to 2019, when the RTSI index, a U.S. dollar-based index of 50 Russian companies, climbed 29%.
Shortly after registering that performance, Elliott Wave International's January Global Market Perspective, a monthly publication which covers 40-plus worldwide markets, showed this chart and said:
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Thursday, April 30, 2020
Russia - Without the Propaganda - Part 2: The Rise of Putin / Politics / Russia
By: Raymond_Matison
Geographical and demographic description
The Russian Federation, commonly known as Russia, is the successor state from the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. Russia still has the largest land mass of any country with 6.6 million square miles, roughly three times that of the United States. From East to West it extends for 6,200 miles through eleven time zones, and its land mass extends from above the Arctic Circle south some 2,800 miles to the subtropical coast of the Caspian Sea. Its population of 146 million, represents just 1.9% of world population, and less than half the population of the United States. But its land mass represents 11% of the earth’s land surface! Three fourths of this land mass, and just one-fifth of its population are in Siberia where its rivers drain into the Arctic Ocean.
Being this far north, its growing season is limited to four or five months, while the winters are long and harsh. Approximately 60% of its land mass is covered in a taiga, a coniferous forest rooted in acidic nutrient-poor soil, with a permafrost underlying roughly half of this terrain. This is not a hospitable environment for agriculture, being suited mostly for spring plantings of hardy early maturing crops. Given the huge distance barriers, growers are inhibited from growing and harvesting more than can be eaten or traded locally, but the nation produces sufficient harvests to feed its population.
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Tuesday, April 28, 2020
Russia - Without the Propaganda - Part One: Rise of Communism to 1991 / Politics / Russia
By: Raymond_Matison
This set of two articles is being created to investigate Russia’s embrace and evolution from Communism, political development of their new state, advance of their market economy, current influence in the world regarding regional conflicts affecting their near geographical neighbors, and potential threat to the United States.
This first article reviews major events leading to the Russian Communist revolution in 1917, through the two world wars and subsequent Cold War to the ultimate unraveling of the Soviet Union. The second article in this series looks at the development of a new Russia – without the propaganda. Consequently, that article looks at facts and some statistics rather than politicized opinions of proponents or opponents. One can lie also with statistics, but less so, and they tell a story that the reader himself can evaluate and confirm either to accept or reject.
Since the beginning of the 20th century Soviet Union’s or Russia’s military force has participated directly or indirectly in WWI, WWII, Korea, Yugoslavia, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Ukraine, and Syria. Despite the world being a huge space, America also has been a participant in these same countries, and over the last several decades the U.S. has identified certain countries as formidable rivals or even as “enemies endangering our national security”. Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and even Venezuela are on this list. Curiosity caused this author to investigate the reasons why these less economically developed and militarily weaker countries are such a concern to the all-powerful United States. Those wishing to review this author’s investigations into China, Iran, Vietnam, or North Korea may do so by accessing Market Oracle’s Author’s Archive, for those interested in Russia, read on.
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Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Russian Ruble Technical Chart Analysis and Forecast / Currencies / Russia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Today I am taking a look at the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar that follows a request from a $12 Patron. The Ruble is not a market I monitor so my analysis is limited to a quick technical take.
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Monday, October 23, 2017
Germany’s Delegation To Russia Signals That Merkel Is Looking For New Allies / Economics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : A delegation of executives from major German corporations recently met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Such delegations are not unusual. Sometimes it is routine, sometimes a courtesy. But occasionally, it has significance. In the case of Russia-Germany relations, such meetings are always potentially significant.
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Friday, August 11, 2017
The Shocking Economic Truth About Russia / Economics / Russia
By: Harry_Dent
The Russian drama seems to intensify with each passing hour.I certainly have my opinion on the matter, as, no doubt, do you. But it’s not my opinion that I want to share with you today. Instead, I want to share two charts that may well shed new light on recent events…
Here’s the first. I warn you, it’s shocking.
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Saturday, August 05, 2017
Four Maps That Show How Russia Could Strike Back Against US Sanctions / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN, XANDER SNYDER, EKATERINA ZOLOTOVA : The US Congress has passed new sanctions targeting Russia’s energy companies.
Recognizing that a vital sector in its economy has even less chance of relief than it once had, Russia has retaliated. It has reduced the number of diplomats it has in the US and has seized property used in Russia by US diplomats.
Energy sales are an important source of revenue in Russia. But it’s more than that. For Russia, energy is also an instrument of geopolitical power. They give Moscow considerable influence over the countries dependent on Russian energy exports.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Why Russia’s Slumping Grain Yields Are So Bad For Putin / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
By Geopolitical Futures : Russia relies on wheat more than any other foodstuff as an important component of its food supply. In fact, roughly 70% of wheat produced in Russia annually is consumed domestically. From Siberia to the westernmost regions bordering Europe, wheat is a staple in most parts of the country.
In 2016, Russia became the world’s top grain exporter with a record production of 120 million tons of wheat, according to Russian statistics agency Rosstat. But poor weather conditions have affected this year’s production.
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Thursday, June 01, 2017
Russia’s Disinformation Seems To Work—But It Doesn’t / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : From its founding, the Soviet Union ran campaigns designed to destabilize and neutralize potential enemies. Disinformation was and is the name of the game.
After the Russian Revolution, Lenin founded the Third International to support Communist parties around the world. Soviet intelligence ran disinformation campaigns. These campaigns were designed to undermine national governments, to discredit leading figures, and so on.
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Monday, April 10, 2017
A Brave New World for the Kremlin / Politics / Russia
By: STRATFOR
Every country faces generational change. Evolutions in technology, culture, social mores and global affairs can leave a gulf between young and old that neither can easily bridge. In Russia, that gulf is especially vast. As of this year, 27 percent of Russians were born after the fall of the Soviet Union, and that number will jump to nearly 40 percent within the next decade. The rising generation was never Sovietized. Most of them, moreover, are too young to remember the tumultuous 1990s, a decade of war, financial crisis and political disarray. Unlike the older generations, they don't recall President Vladimir Putin's promises to save Russia or the measures he took to stabilize the country after its post-Soviet tailspin. In fact, they've never really known life without him. For Putin, the situation poses an unfamiliar challenge.
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Monday, March 27, 2017
Russia Crisis - Maps That Signal Growing Instability and Unrest / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
About one year from now, on March 18, 2018, Russia will hold a presidential election. This will take place against the backdrop of an economic crisis that will continue to plague the country in the coming year.
Russia's biggest challenges will be internal, and the countryside will show more signs of crisis.
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Monday, February 20, 2017
Warning Signs Of Instability In Russia / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : Geopolitical Futures forecasted that 2017 will be “an inflection point in the long-term destabilization of Russia.” After just six weeks, there are clear signs that this forecast is right on track. You can read more about GPF's outlook for Russia in This Week in Geopolitics (subscribe here for free).
Russia has four areas of instability: the distribution and prevalence of wage arrears, pressure on its banking system, low-level social and economic unrest, and government purges.
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Sunday, February 12, 2017
Trump Not Pro-Russia, Says Its Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman / Politics / Russia
By: Stephen_Lendman
Profiles in courage are absent in Washington, especially on geopolitical issues, notably on relations with Russia.
In January, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Trump is not pro-Russia. She distinguished between Russophobe Hillary Clinton and Trump’s more responsible comments, calling getting along with Russia a good thing.
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Wednesday, January 18, 2017
The Hunt for Russia's Next Enemy / Politics / Russia
By: STRATFOR
By Ksenia Semenova : Alexander III, the conservative Russian emperor who ruled from 1881 to 1894, once famously remarked to his ministers that Russia has only two allies: its army and its navy. "The others," he said, "will go against us at the first opportunity."
Russian President Vladimir Putin recalled these words in a 2015 speech, adding that he quite agreed with them. At the time, Putin held every card he needed to point to the West and proclaim that the world stood against Russia, leaving it with only its forces for protection. But as the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump moves to embrace Russia and question the West's assumptions about NATO — just as the Europeans have begun to look for warmer ties to the east — Russia's diplomatic environment has started to change. And one thing Putin certainly understands, as Alexander III did, is the Russian government's need for an external enemy. This raises the question: In the new strategic environment that is emerging, who will that enemy be?
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Wednesday, January 04, 2017
Low Oil Prices Will Make Russia More Aggressive in 2017 / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Russia has had a hard time since the collapse of global oil prices which began in August 2014. This will continue in 2017. The Russian people are starting to feel the effects of prolonged low oil prices. This was bound to happen. And this will shape Moscow's foreign policy in the year to come.
Russia’s money problems start with the economy’s structure. The country’s budget depends on income from oil exports. Low oil prices have had huge effects. And the country hasn’t even recovered from the 2008 decline.
Monday, December 05, 2016
Russia's Path to Another Resurgence / Politics / Russia
By: STRATFOR
After enduring three years of a foundering economy and feuds with the West, things may be looking up for Russia. The Brexit vote in June exposed the deep discord in the European Union, giving Moscow a glimmer of hope that dissenting member states might break the bloc's consensus on its sanctions against Russia in a future vote on their renewal. Though EU members decided unanimously in July to extend the measures, upcoming elections on the Continent could undermine the bloc's unity. In the United States, meanwhile, Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election has opened a potential path to warmer relations between the United States and Russia, and perhaps even an end to Washington's sanctions on Moscow. The turning political tides in Brussels and Washington could give the Kremlin the leeway to increase its influence in the former Soviet Union, leading the countries in Russia's periphery to re-evaluate their foreign policy positions.
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
Putin’s Ukraine Strategy Could Lay the Groundwork for War / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are growing. According to the Russians, a special operations team from Ukraine attacked Crimea in August. The Ukrainians denied the claim. The Russians appeared to be moving forces around in Crimea and increasing their number and posture.
There have been reports of Russian troop buildups east of their border with Ukraine. There is also an unconfirmed report of Russian troops deploying in pro-Russian, rebel-held territory inside Ukraine. The Russians have done nothing to tamp down tensions.
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Thursday, August 25, 2016
Why Putin Might Be on His Way Out / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Russian President Vladimir Putin recently did three very interesting things.
First, he fired his long-time aide and chief of staff, Sergei Ivanov, and moved him to a lower position. A few weeks earlier, Putin fired at least three regional governors and replaced them with his personal bodyguards.
Removing that many governors is a bit odd. Replacing them with bodyguards is very odd. Then removing someone like Ivanov is extremely odd.
Second, Russia raised pressure on Ukraine. The Russians claimed that Ukrainian special forces attacked Russian-held Crimea. They announced that they sent S-400 anti-air missiles to Crimea. With a 250-mile range, these missiles can reach deep into Ukraine.
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Sunday, July 24, 2016
Russia: Tensions, Turmoil, and Western Hubris / Politics / Russia
By: Andy_Sutton
"The 3 Big Stories NOT Being Covered – PART 1” With Graham Mehl. Anyone who has read this publication for any length of time knows that topics range from mainstream to the totally uncovered stories. As we look out not just across the economic landscape, but across the world in general, we are seeing an alarming increase of serious situations that are receiving little or no coverage at all from the western media. Thankfully there are hundreds if not thousands of reliable people who chip in with analysis and stories of their own on some of these topics.
Sunday, March 20, 2016
Even As Russians Withdraw, Their Legacy in Syria Remains / Politics / Russia
By: STRATFOR
As the departure of Russian forces from Syria announced March 14 continues, evidence of construction at Russia's main air base in the country demonstrates Moscow’s intention to maintain a military presence there. Imagery dated March 17 acquired by Stratfor of the Bassel al Assad air base in Latakia province and the naval base at Tartus highlights the ongoing Russian drawdown of its forces in Syria that Moscow contends will be largely completed by March 20.