Analysis Topic: Companies Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 06, 2023
Apple APPL Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Apple
By: Nadeem_Walayat
APPLE - 141 EGF 5%, ,EGF12M 6%. PE 23.1
The Apple stock is weak, targeting the bottom of it's current range at $120, which if breached would then target around $106. However as the graph illustrates that whilst Apple is not cheap at X23.1, the fact that Apple is engaged in huge buy backs as illustrated by Share dilution at 80% shows that the stock gets cheaper over time even if the stock price goes nowhere, and hence acts as support under the stock price. Apple has positive EGF's courtesy of the buy backs so the stock price whilst weak is unlikely to experience a waterfall moment, instead most probable is that the stock price will continue to trade within a range for some time. I am currently 25% invested and will continue to accumulate Apple on fresh lows, i.e. sub $120, and maybe some light buying sub $128. The bottom line is that if there is one stock that could trade at NEW bear market lows then that stock is Apple.
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
GOOGLE Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Google
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GOOGLE - $101, EGF -10%, EGF12M -4%. PE 20.
Google declares WAR on Microsoft GPT as founders Larry and Sergey return to lead more than 20 AI projects some of which you will have heard of, many that will be revealed over the coming months. The problem with Google is that the current CEO is a bit of a *****, a manager rather than a visionary, not aggressive enough, not when one looks at Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, hence the founders have come back to get Google back on track to turn it into the ruthless Sky net that we all love, to crush the competition so as to ensure that Google remains the primary AI company on the planet. The bottom line is that Google already has everything to out compete GPT and anything else Microsoft is cooking in attempts to out search Google Search.
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
META Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
META - $143, EGF -28%, EGF12M -20%. PE 13.7
META is crawling it's way out of the pit of investing HELL after having collapsed to an unimaginably low price of just $89! A collapse that prompted crazy talk amongst the weak hands if they should SELL to buy something else, that is what capitulation looks like! At the start of 2022 the lowest I could imagine META trading to was $140, well it BLEW through that and only now has recovered to be perched just above $140. The investing herd clearly HATE the metaverse even though it IS the FUTURE! With the next big step being the release of Quest 3 later this year. Meta awaits it's killer app's which will be centered around running simulations of the real world as I covered recently.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
AMD Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / AMD
By: Nadeem_Walayat
AMD - $76.5, EGF -29%%, EGF12M -8%. PE 20.3
AMD continues to crush Intel in terms of gaining market share by means of utilising TSMC technology against which a stagnating Intel could not compete that had propelled the stock to an eye watering high of $160 only to result in an even more spectacular collapse to $55! In fact when the stock was trading at it's low I posted - "The bottom line is buying AMD today at $55 is akin to buying AMD at it's cheapest valuation EVER! Which is why I am 154% invested!" Today I am still invested to the rafters in AMD at 150%. The stock price has recovered to $76, that is a near 50% advance off it's low that could run to heavy resistance at $100. However EGF's are strongly negative. which means AMD is going to find it tough going at over $80, every dollar gained will be a battle until earnings start to grow once more, so my strategy is to trim north of $80 with a view to accumulating below $70. So for AMD earnings are definitely looking like BUY the rumour and SELL the news.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
KLAC Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
KLAC - $414 EGF 20%, EGF12M -9%, PE 17.5
KLA is on of my favourite higher risk semi stocks that trades on X17.5 on a market cap of $59bn about half that of AMD so not exactly a small cap high risk stock. What sticks out is it's relentless earnings growth as the below chart illustrates. The great bear market gave us two great sub $300 opps to accumulate in a stock that today at $414 carry's a lower valuation then when it was trading at $200 barely 2 years ago! If any of the semi stocks on my list is going to blast off to new all time highs then it is going to be KLA! I trimmed on the rally which brings my exposure down to 75% so I am eager to accumulate on the stocks next dip below $400 in advance NEW ALL TIME HIGHS. EGF of 20% strongly suggests to expect KLA to beat earnings.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Intel INTC Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / INTEL
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Intel - $30.3 EGF -44%, EGF12M -34%, PE 10.7
If one just looked at the PE then Intel would look cheap, but it's EGF's are horrific which is a function of placing huge bets on new Fab's that will take several years to be built and only then will we know if the bets pay off or not. In terms of Intel's battle against AMD then the spread between the two has narrowed a little but AMD still produces the better chips by some margin that only TSMC can correct for Intel. Intel remains a sleeping giant pending earnings growth, until then the best one can hope for is that it holds the current range in attempts to build a base to recover back above $40. The bottom line is that EGF of -44% and -34% are strongly pointing to another bad earnings report on the upside everyone is now conditioned to expect bad earnings from Intel so the bad news is already baked in which means it would only take a glimmer of hope to fuel a rally in this sleeping tech giant.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Lam Researtch LRCX Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
LRCX - $491, EGF 16%, EGF12M -13%, PE 13.9
I have to admit to having a soft spot for Lam Research which is why I am 131% invested even after trimming, trades on just X13.9, with a positive EGF of 16%, whilst earnings will contract during 2023 hence 12M EGF of -13%. However forward EGF is more guesstimate so less important than actual EGF which is strongly bullish for the stock price that has soared off it's $300 low, well done to all those who bought any of LRCX near it's low because it's not going to see those levels again anytime soon at best could dip to just below $400 below which lies heavy support, as a prelude to an eventual breakout higher to above $500 that would propel the stock towards it's all time high of $730. The bottom line is that Lam is heading for an earnings beat.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
IBM Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
IBM - $142 EGF 22%, EGF12M 6%, PE 16
IBM the sleeping giant was one of the best performing stocks of 2022 and with very strong EGF's has the potential to blast off out of it's multi-year trading range towards $200 a share during 2023! A fair PE of 16 coupled with high EGF's suggest IBM really could surprise all who had written it off as a dead dividend stock, not with EGF scores of +22% and +6%! So whilst the stock price says SELL the dinosaur trading at the top of it's trading range, the fundamentals of the company say higher prices, especially if one understands what's going on under the hood in terms of Quantum Computing, AI and a library of tens of thousands of patents then the picture of IBM of the past that most hold in their mind is not the same as the IBM of today. The bottom line is that IBM is primed for a positive earnings surprise!
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Monday, January 30, 2023
ASML Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ASML - $676, EGF 7%, EGF12M 6%%, PE 40
They aren't many stocks that can get away with trading on a PE of 40 but ASMAL can, why because they are a literal monopoly that no one else can replicate, produce the EUV machines that the likes of TSMC and Intel use to make the chips. First comes industry demand for the machines that make the chips then retail demand for the chips. The EGF's speak volume for why this stock trades at a hefty premium. ASML:is on a run towards new all time highs during 2023. The bottom line is that ASML will deliver an earnings BEAT.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Tesla TSLA Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Tesla
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TESLA - $143, EGF 16%, EGF12M 362%, PE 39
Tesla's PE ratio collapsed along with it's stock price to a low of $100 a share! And as expected has rebounded strongly to now well above $130 and should continue trending higher to north of $160, to eventually attempt to break back above $200 this year, but the trend will be volatile i.e. expect huge gap moves. In terms of earnings the EGF's remain strongly positive so Tesla regardless of MSM noise should continue to post positive earnings growth signs for which can be seen in the reopening of China which thus feeds the stock prices trend higher. The valuations has reset to X39 and should continue to moderate during 2023 which suggests to expect earnings to continue to grow all year. After some trimming I am currently 130% invested and I aim to continue to lighten towards being about 115% invested in this volatile AI tech giant.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Microsoft MSFT Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Microsoft
By: Nadeem_Walayat
MSFT - $242.6, EGF 0%, EGF12M 10%, PE 26.1, Fair Value 250
GPT Microsoft trading on 26X earnings not cheap when compared to it's Quantum AI tech stock brethren. However it is the cheapest it's been at for many a year having traded down to equal it's pandemic low valuation which also illustrates why many so called analysts waiting for the PRICE to revisit pandemic levels don't have a clue what they are doing. In terms of downside risk Microsoft is shouting that it is reluctant to trade down to $200, so in terms of buying the $228 to $208 range is the best one can expect to accumulate in. The EGF's say it all, 0%, and +10% whilst most are negative, thus is sowing the seeds for a resumption of it's bull market so I expect a positive response to earnings likely to increasing to boost their coffers by capitalising upon GPT3-4-5, that they hope can finally put a dent into the Google search money making machine, though I seriously doubt they will! I am currently 37% invested and will continue to seek opps to increase exposure to this primary AI tech stock.
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Friday, January 27, 2023
Should I Borrow from Friends and Family to Start a Business? / Companies / SME
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Finding ways to fund your fledgling business is always difficult. Although there are many channels that you can go through, such as small business loans, it can be advantageous to approach friends and family for initial startup money. It worked for Jeff Bezos, who received $300,000 from his parents as an initial investment in Amazon.
However, borrowing informally from friends and family comes with several complications that should be considered before you make that all important pitch. Below is a list of the pros and cons of borrowing from friends and family when starting a business.
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Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Alternative Ways To Finance Your Startup in 2023 / Companies / Debt & Loans
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Deciding how to finance your startup in 2023 can be a challenging hurdle to overcome. In the US, 58% of startups have less than $25,000 at their disposal during the beginning phase.
Often traditional methods of acquiring funds via bank loans are complicated and competitive. Processes can be lengthy and are not always guaranteed as banks shy from new ventures and the element of risk involved.
Fortunately, there are lots of options out there. In the guide below we have shed light on some alternative ways you could look to finance your startup this year.
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Tuesday, January 24, 2023
The Best Ways to Finance Your Startup? / Companies / SME
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
In the world of business and entrepreneurship, the beginning of the new year often brings fresh ideas and inspiration. This is none more true than in the startup industry. You may be thinking of finally developing that billion-dollar idea you’ve kept in your head for the past years. Before you begin, however, you need to develop a smart approach to securing financing for your new venture.A survey by CB Insights has shown that 29% of new start ups fail because of lack of funds or lack of ability to raise new capital. That’s why we are happy to present a guide to financing a new-start up.
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Sunday, January 22, 2023
Stocks Analysis Bonanza Trend Forecasts - Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu.... / Companies / Investing 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Analysis of 10 stocks as requested by Patrons to see where they stand in terms of trend and future prospects as many are still trading at deep discounts to their highs. Plus a bonus 11th stock, plus a deep look and trend forecast for the Bitcoin price for 2023 made right at the peak of the crisis of confidence in the crypto markets following the SCAM that is FTX and SBernieF.
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Thursday, January 19, 2023
Coinbase - COIN Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / Investing 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ai Stocks Portfolio
A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).
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Wednesday, January 18, 2023
Stocks Analysis Bonanza Trend Forecasts - GOOG, QCOM, ASML.... / Companies / Investing 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Analysis of 10 stocks as requested by Patrons to see where they stand in terms of trend and future prospects as many are still trading at deep discounts to their highs. Plus a bonus 11th stock, plus a deep look and trend forecast for the Bitcoin price for 2023 made right at the peak of the crisis of confidence in the crypto markets following the SCAM that is FTX and SBernieF.
First briefly, the S&P spent the last 10 days consolidating it's recent advance taking the S&P down to a low of 3900 as it chopped away at bullish positions and accumulated bearish positions which as I voiced in the comments was sowing the seeds for a break above 4000 to target 4100 which happened Tuesday, Though despite seasonal expectations for a santa rally, this rally is HATED by most for one only needs to go over to twitter to see why where tweeters correctly point out there is a weight of both technical and fundamental evidence against the rally such recession blah blah blah, hawkish Fed blah blah blah, and even if the market does go a little higher there is the impending doom of the 200 day moving average blah blah blah. All of this is PERFECT for the rally to fire it's BOOSTER rockets and propel this market well beyond anyone's expectations as I wrote in my last analysis that I would not be surprise if when the dust settles the S&P is trading north of 4300!
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Tuesday, January 17, 2023
Magnite - MGNI Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / Investing 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ai Stocks Portfolio
A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).
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Sunday, January 15, 2023
Roblox - RBLX Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / Gaming
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ai Stocks Portfolio
A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).
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Saturday, January 14, 2023
Western Digital - WDC Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ai Stocks Portfolio
A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).
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