Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Defending Tax Cuts Against Leftist Journalists / Economics / Taxes
By: Gerard_Jackson
Jonathan Chait, a senior editor with The New Republic , has written an unintentionally funny book called The Big Con: The True Story of How Washington Got Hoodwinked and Hijacked by Crackpot Economics , part of which was published in the TNA. ( How economic crackpots devoured American politics. Feast of the Wingnuts ) At or near the top of his pet hatreds is supply-side economics (a “crank doctrine”) and the Laffer curve. One thing became immediately clear: Chait is the last person who should be calling anyone an economic crackpot.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 22, 2007
House Prices to Drop by 50%, US Still Headed for A Recession Despite Fed Rate Cut / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
A Sea Change at the Fed
Transmission Problems
A 50% Drop in Housing Prices
Wildness Lies in Wait
I Still Think Recession
It's Good to Be Home
The term "sea change" has come to mean a profound transformation ever since Will Shakespeare used it in The Tempest. I think this week we witnessed a true sea change in central bank policy, on both sides of the Atlantic. The stock market rejoiced over a 50 basis point cut from the Fed, assuming that it will stimulate growth and avoid anything more than a slowdown. In this week's letter, we ponder several questions. Why did the Fed decide to cut now when the rhetoric of just a few weeks ago was that of inflation fighting? What do they see? Are more rate cuts coming? Will they make any difference? And who is Frederic (Rick) Mishkin and why is he maybe the most important Fed governor you haven't heard of? There's a lot of ground to cover, and it should make for an interesting letter.
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Friday, September 21, 2007
Hyperinflation or Recession? / Economics / Inflation
By: Brian_Bloom
Zimbabwe is a country where hyperinflation is a reality as opposed to a theoretical possibility. The photograph below shows what it looks like to pay for lunch for eight people in that country. It was sent to me in an email dated September 18 th , 2007 . The meal – consisting of fillet steaks and beers – cost six million Zimbabwean dollars. What you are looking at is that amount of money in $1,000 notes being collected by the restaurant manager. I don't know if it included a Z$600,000 tip or not. The restaurant has no menu. Patrons wanting to eat are not offered a choice. They ask “what's left?” Still, they are able to smile. Such is the indomitability of the human spirit. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Inflate, Inflate, Inflate, Stagflation! / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes : What concerns me most today is not the mortgage meltdown in the U.S. That's because it's not the cause of our country's economic problems. Rather, the mortgage meltdown and credit market panic are just symptoms of a much deeper, underlying disease.
That disease is the fiscal and monetary fiasco I have been warning you about for the last several years. Specifically, I'm talking about Washington's reckless spending. The government is racking up public debts like there's no tomorrow!
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Thursday, September 20, 2007
Beware - The Bernanke Fed Could Ignite Hyper-Inflation! Money Supply Surging, Dollar Plunging / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Dorsch
“You unlock this door with the key of imagination. Beyond it is another dimension, a dimension of sound, a dimension of sight, a dimension of mind. You're moving into a land of both shadow and substance, of things and ideas. It's a journey into a wondrous land, whose boundaries are that of imagination. That's a signpost up ahead, your next stop, the “Twilight Zone!” Rod Serling was a multi-talented man and a prolific writer. His television series “The Twilight Zone” ran for five seasons in the early 1960's and was extraordinary, winning three Emmy Awards. As the host and narrator, and writer of more than half of 151 episodes, he became an American household name and his voice always sounded a creepy reminder of a world beyond our control.
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Tuesday, September 18, 2007
US Economy Looks at Recession; Whilst China Consumer Boom Takes Off / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: If you watch much CNBC or read the financial newspapers, you probably noticed a small-but-growing stream of Wall Street experts forecasting a recession for our country.
Right now, economists put the odds of a U.S. recession at one in three. But, in my view, they might want to consider ratcheting up their forecasts …
Six Signs of a Coming Recession in the U.S.
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Tuesday, September 18, 2007
US Now in Growth Recession, Full Blown Recession Tomorrow? / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
On a year-over-year basis, growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) is settling in at around 2%. Although the economy's precise potential growth rate is unknown, most estimates center around 2-3/4%. Therefore, it is safe to say that the economy currently is growing below its potential growth rate and is likely to continue so in the foreseeable future. This situation is sometimes referred to as a growth recession. As economic growth persists below potential, the unemployment rate begins edging higher and the manufacturing capacity utilization (operating) rate begins moving lower. Chart 1 shows that these events are beginning to occur now. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 17, 2007
Does the Fall in Australia’s Manufacturing Hold a Lesson for US economy? / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
Australian manufacturing is now about 11 per cent of GDP, the lowest ratio in the OECD. For years I have been warning our so-called free marketeers that the condition of manufacturing needed to be addressed. Their insouciant response is that the decline of manufacturing — no matter how severe — as a proportion of GDP is only to be expected in an advanced economy. In support of this assertion they appeal to the law of diminishing marginal utility and the concept of comparative advantage.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 17, 2007
Why Consumer Led Recoveries Can Be Bad For Economies / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
There is genuine bafflement among orthodox economists (at least in private) about the forces that burst bubbles and bring economies to their knees. Whenever a slowdown emerges the inevitable impulse to call for rate cuts make itself felt. I have even had economists tell me that America's post-WWII boom vindicates the Keynesian vote, forgetting — perhaps they don't know — that Keynesians predicted something like 6-8 million unemployed because of the massive drop in government spending once the war was over. In fact, for the fiscal years 1944 to 1947 government spending dropped by $56 billion, a fall of 59 per cent! The result was a boom in employment that completely refuted Keynesianism.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 14, 2007
Americas Economic Dominance Fades As the US Dollar Continues to Slump / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
American Consumers are Losing their Crown - With the U.S. Dollar Index breaking decisively below its long-term support level, the sun is finally setting on the golden age of American consumption. As America 's economic dominance fades, so too will the faith in the central thesis that has explained its apparent success and has shaped the majority of recent economic theory. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 13, 2007
US Economic Crisis: The US Political Leadership Has Failed / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_C_Cook
As the 2007 economic collapse picks up speed, it's time to take a hard look at the performance of the U.S. national political leadership in meeting some of their most fundamental responsibilities. It's time to face the fact of serious failure over the last quarter century.
During this time, the leaders of both political parties and of major institutions such as the Federal Reserve have presided over the abandonment of some of the most solemn obligations of constitutional government. They have done this in order to embrace an agenda favorable mainly to the financial, corporate, and government elites.
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Thursday, September 13, 2007
Federal Reserve Chatter – Looking Forward to tomorrow's Economic Data / Economics / US Economy
By: David_Urban
Monday was an interesting day as Federal Reserve officials gave speeches which were dissected by the market for clues ahead of next weeks FOMC meeting.
Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve and one of the two governors who asked for a discount rate decrease, cited risks to consumer spending from the subprime fallout and downward pressure but also cautioned against a bailout.
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Tuesday, September 11, 2007
US Economy Heading for a Recession? / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
There have been oodles of commentary about the effects of the subprime real estate fiasco and how this will impact on the US economy. The first thing to bear in mind is that this financial disaster should be laid at the feet of the Fed. Without its loose monetary policies the credit to fund subprime mortgages on a massive scale would not have been available. Pumping masses of credit into the banking system is like pouring water into a bucket that is full. It's gotta overflow. And this is precisely what America got: an overflow of credit that went into funding a lot of dodgy loans — and not all of them are mortgages. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 10, 2007
Inflation Surge Expected As Food Costs Continue to Soar / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The average weekly shopping bill is set to rise by 30% between now and Christmas in the United Kingdom ..."
ADAM LEYLAND, editor of The Grocer – the food & drink industry's favorite weekly reading here in the United Kingdom – says the cost of the average Briton's weekly shopping bill could rise 30% by December.
Thirty per cent? By Christmas?
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Monday, September 10, 2007
Contrary to Opinion, US is Not In a Recession Yet / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_J_Nolte
First it was if, then it became when and now it is how much. The very weak jobs report on Friday moved the Fed to front and center in the debate on economic growth and how aggressive should the Fed be in cutting interest rates to save a faltering economy. While a negative reading on “job creation” does not necessarily mean we are entering a recession, the likelihood of one has increased. However, other economic reports last week were not as dire, as the consumer seemed content to spend, judging by the retail sales figures provided by the various retail companies.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Consumer Confidence is the Greatest Bubble of All! / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
If you're like me, you have sat back over the past month or two and wondered what took so long. This is not to say that I am a gloomist by any means. There are a very small percentage of us that look at the economy and markets from a very different perspective. A perspective grounded in common sense. I can distill the difference down to a simple comparison: Most of the world believes there is a free lunch. We do not.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Your Wealth Is Being Confiscated Through Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: I'd like to start this issue by quoting three great authors. Although they were from very different walks of life, they shared an understanding of exactly what the global economy is going through today, especially the events here in the U.S. …Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Manufacturing is the key factor to the US Economy Avoiding Recession, Not the Sub-prime Mortgage Market Meltdown / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
It would be an understatement to call the current thinking of the economic commentariat confused. For this lot consumer spending drives the economy. Therefore it follows that the subprime mortgage crisis will hit consumer spending and then spread to manufacturing resulting in a full-blown recession. (This is not good news — unless your name is Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid). Fortunately the subprime fiasco is not a threat to the US economy. It is nothing more than a symptom of the Fed’s loose monetary policy. Without credit expansion these loans would never have been made.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 03, 2007
How Payroll Taxes Kill Jobs / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Actually they don’t — so long as the market is allowed to factor them into lower net pay. First and foremost, it should never be forgotten that payroll taxes are part of the worker’s gross wage. Raising payroll taxes is economically the same as legislating for higher wage rates. Nevertheless, I did have one so-called economist make the ludicrous argument that because the government spends the payroll receipts no unemployment can emerge because aggregate spending has been increased. This is the kind of economic idiocy that drives me up the wall.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 31, 2007
US Monetary Data is Not Painting a Pretty Picture / Economics / Money Supply
By: David_Urban
Well, MZM and M2 have begun to take on a parabolic looks as the compounded annual rate of change increased to 9.7 and 6.4%, respectively, from a year ago. MZM growth is giving me the chills just looking at the chart. This does not look good from an anti-inflation perspective. You can say that the helicopter drops have started. Take it all in now because when the party ends you will not want to be around for the cleanup.Read full article... Read full article...