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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stagflation

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

UK Producer Price Inflation Soars Suggesting Stagflationary Recession / Economics / Stagflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK Producer Price inflation soared in May to 8.6% for the price of output of manufactured goods to levels not seen since the early 1980's stagflationary recession. The trend not only signals a halt to further rate cuts but increasingly the expectations are that despite sharply lower economic growth, UK interest rates will be forced higher as inflationary forces make themselves visible in the CPI data that currently stands at the Bank of England's upper limit of 3%.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

The Hyperinflationary Shell Game / Economics / Stagflation

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleModern economics is not rocket science. In fact, it's not science at all. It's a game, a confidence game. Once paper passed for money, economics became an elaborate shell game designed to hide the fact paper had been substituted for silver and gold. Debt ratings are an attempt to quantify confidence in paper assets and are an essential part of the game. The shell game is called “Where's The Money?” The answer is simple, it's not there.

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Economics

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Global Economic Slowdown in Stagflationary Environment / Economics / Stagflation

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAsha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Leading indicators – premature to rule out recession
“The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) moved up 0.1% in April, matching the increase seen in March. The two consecutive monthly gains of the index follow five consecutive monthly declines. The spokesperson from the Conference Board indicated that the index is indicative of weak economic conditions but ruled out the possibility of a recession.

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Economics

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Western Economies Experiencing Early Stages of Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Mark_OByrne

Gold and silver continued to surge yesterday with gold up nearly 1% (up $8.25 to $927.80) and silver up 2% (up $0.35 to $17.97). Gold continued to rally in Asia but has succumbed to some profit taking in early trade in Europe. Gold has risen on the continuing oil surge with oil reaching new record highs (above $135) again this morning and oil remains near these record levels.

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Housing-Market

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

US Housing Crisis and the Last Days of Cheap Resources / Housing-Market / Stagflation

By: David_Vaughn

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIs the housing crisis over? Or even close to reaching its peak? Not according to the experts. It seems we have a way to go before all the dirt settles to the bottom. Which is another way of saying that we really do not know what the long term effects of this housing mess will bring. Many commentators are trying to put a happy face on this crisis and report that only a small number are being hurt by foreclosures, but the entire housing industry is already suffering with the downturn.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 19, 2008

American Armageddon: How to Win the Epic Battle for Your Wealth / Stock-Markets / Stagflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin D. Weiss writes: Just when Wall Street was hoping for some relief from surging energy costs, crude oil prices surged more than $3 on Friday ... spiking to nearly $128 a barrel ... shattering all prior records ... and driving prices at the pump perilously close to $4 per gallon.

Worse, next week, despite the highest gas prices in U.S. history, millions of U.S. drivers will start hitting the road as Memorial Day kicks off the summer driving season. And last week, despite a last-ditch attempt to head off the expected crisis, President Bush failed to persuade the Saudis to pump more oil.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 18, 2008

The Rise of Stagflation Means the End of Fiat Asset Wealth / Stock-Markets / Stagflation

By: Richard_Gorton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleStagflation, it's a fiat wealth killer: headline inflation is rising while jobs, manufacturing production, real estate, and economic indicators are falling: stocks and bond wealth of all types will be turning down in value.

Stagflation in the US
I choose to believe as HousingPanic does, that it's hilarious to believe the Government's inflation report which showed nearly 0% inflation .

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Inflation Deflation Chaotic Trend Towards Stagflation / Commodities / Stagflation

By: Christopher_Laird

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSeeing the gold market correct, and oil in a speculation mania, and other commodities with speculation, then combining weakening US consumer demand, one wonders what the heck is going on. The markets are in a chaotic battle between inflation and deflation forces.

The USD is rising, from a bottom around 70. It fell for years since 02. At this 70ish number on the USDX (US dollar index heavily Euro weighted) the USD rebounded. The EU is screaming the Euro is too strong. Germany is the only one who is not screaming. Even so, the EU has a much better trade balance situation (on the whole) than the US.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

US Heading for Double-Digit Inflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss writes: Nearly all the pieces are now in place for inflation to strike with increasing speed and fury, catching Wall Street by surprise, throwing government policy into turmoil and, at the same time, opening up broad opportunities for investors.

I know. I've seen this movie once before. And the script will forever be ingrained in my mind.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 01, 2008

US Fed Interest Rate Cutting Policy Exporting Stagflation to Europe / Interest-Rates / Stagflation

By: Jennifer_Yousfi

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. Federal Reserve reduced the benchmark U.S. lending rate by a quarter point - from 2.25% to 2% - yesterday (Wednesday), and then hinted that it will take a break from one of its most-aggressive rate-cutting campaigns in decades.

"The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate risks to economic activity," the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said in the statement announcing the interest-rate move. Central bank policymakers also said that "recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak" before going on to say "uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high" and noted that the Fed would continue to monitor both economic growth and inflation closely.

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Economics

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Euro-Zone Combats Stagflation with Strong Euro, as Asia Riots on Food Inflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Christopher_Laird

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInflation and stagflation, Euro, gold, and Asia
Stagflation is behind the strong Euro, but also lots of general commodity inflation. Gold loves the stagflation mixture. If there is one gold bullish factor above all the others, it is if stagflation stays with us. Asia also has its very serious problems with inflation, namely food prices.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 17, 2008

Financial System Crisis Met by Wall of Central Bank Money Leading to Hyperinflation / Stock-Markets / Stagflation

By: Ty_Andros

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBEWARE: The Ides of March, aka FIRESTORM! Part II
As confidence in US financial institutions and its balance sheets DISSAPEARS so have the investors in them. Liquidity from the private sector has stopped dead in its tracks. As I have outlined in the past, there is no lack of liquidity, only a lack of confidence to deploy as questions of Solvency are now of primary importance. So, now the financial systems' parents at the G10 central banks and the government's fire trucks are on the scene of the 5-alarm blaze pouring liquidity into the fires raging in the financial sector that is Wall Street, Lombard Street and the G7 banking system. Last week's RUN ON THE BANK and the subsequent rescue of Bear Stearns de-marks the latest commitment of Helicopter Ben Bernanke and G10 central bankers to deliver on their recent promises to do “whatever it takes” to combat DEFLATION and protect the banking system within the various nations financial and asset markets.

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Economics

Monday, March 17, 2008

The Dual Paradigms Of Today's Stagflation and Deflation Macro Economic Conditions  / Economics / Stagflation

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMany are now categorizing current macro economic conditions as being an instance of stagflation . And while current circumstances definitely appear to be so, in my opinion one needs to go past the definition of stagflation to capture the essence of macro conditions at present, because this is not your father's economy. In the last inflation cycle witnessed in the 70's, wages were growing and people had savings, and we still had the disinflation period this sponsored up until millenniums turn to live through.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Fed Money Printing to Solve Banking Crisis Leading to Stagflation / Interest-Rates / Stagflation

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt doesn't matter what newspaper you picked up. I doesn't matter what TV show you watched. Records fell like no time in recent history with perhaps the exception of Carl Lewis running loose at the Olympics in his heyday.

I wonder how much his Gold medals are worth now?

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Economics

Friday, March 14, 2008

The Road to Hyperinflation- Vive La France! / Economics / Stagflation

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week, as the financial sector began to give way under the unbearable weight of bad mortgage debt, the Federal Reserve stepped in to save the day. At least that's what it says in the script.

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Economics

Friday, March 14, 2008

US Manipulated CPI Inflation Statistics- Stagflation 1980 and Now / Economics / Stagflation

By: Tim_Iacono

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere's been a lot of talk in recent months about how different the current period is from bouts of "stagflation" in the 1970s and early 1980s. According to the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), "inflation" peaked in 1980 at around 14 percent or so and many pundits today say that we'll never see those levels ever again.

They're probably right ... but not for the reasons you might think.

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Economics

Friday, March 07, 2008

US Dollar-Gold: A Perfect Hyper-Stagflationary Storm / Economics / Stagflation

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe title should really be “Psychology of 1000-20-100” to give respect to the major signpost price targets. The $1000 gold target is within reach. The $20 silver target has been breached. The $100 crude oil price has been breached. Before long, all three price levels will serve as support. When a gold target of $1000 was proposed three to four years ago, most people dominated (or bound) by conventional thinking dismissed such talk as silly, irresponsible, even ludicrous. Not any more! The same goes for silver and crude oil with their respective distant price targets, each attained. Profound market psychology is in the process of changing. Many new wrong analyses will come to the table, like so many casseroles containing rancid meat and rotten vegetables as ingredients. They will maintain that now these three goals have been met, the great sell off can begin. They will be dead wrong.

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Economics

Saturday, March 01, 2008

Stagflation and the Fed- Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead! / Economics / Stagflation

By: John_Mauldin

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHow Do You Spell Stagflation?
  • Memo from the Fed: Inflation? What Inflation?
  • The Fed Will Cut and Cut Again
  • Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead!
  • Apple, Sprint, AT&T, and Going to the Dark Side

This week's topic was inspired by a discussion I had with George Friedman of Stratfor fame last night. He was suggesting the recession would be short and steep, and I of course think it is going to be shallow and with a long, protracted, and slow Muddle Through recovery. And it all hinges on how the Fed thinks about inflation.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

US Fed Fueling Hyper Inflationary Global Commodities Market Bubble / Commodities / Stagflation

By: Gary_Dorsch


Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“Too much money, chasing too few commodities,” might be the best way to explain the historic rally that is underway in the global commodities markets. Central bankers in eighteen of the top-20 economies in the world have been expanding their money supplies at double digit rates for the past several years, trying to prevent their currencies from rising too quickly against the sickly US dollar.

Nowadays, fund managers are pouring billions of dollars into commodities across the board, as a hedge against the explosive growth of the world's money supply, competitive currency devaluations, and the negative interest rates engineered by central banks. To the chagrin of central bankers, much of new money pumped into the global markets, is also going into commodities, instead of the stock market.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 25, 2008

Recessionary Inflation Equals Stagflation / Stock-Markets / Stagflation

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Recessionary inflation – it used to be called stagflation, but this time around the growth seems to be heading lower while inflation is rising all the way to modest levels. The CPI report showed that inflation was higher than expected, for both the “core” (without the unnecessary food and energy) as well as the “all in” kind. One key report next week will be the Producer price report that should show whether companies are able to pass along their higher prices to consumers. So far, companies have generally been eating the higher costs. Another key report is the income and spending report, here we are looking for spending to be below income growth and too, whether the income gains will be above that of the inflation rates.

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