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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Housing

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Housing-Market

Monday, November 25, 2019

New Threat To US Housing Market & Stocks From Government Deficits / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Dan_Amerman

A new era began for us all in September and October of 2019, with the introduction of a new element that is likely to become one of the dominant investment market influences in the 2020s.

What is shown in the orange area of the graph above is something brand new. When we understand why the Federal Reserve abruptly reversed course, created $280 billion in new money in two months and injected it into the financial system - then we can also explore why this new element could still just be getting started and could lead to quite different prices and risks for stocks, bonds and homes in the 2020s, making the new decade entirely different from the 2010s or any previous decade.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Why Americans Will Begin Regretting Buying That New Home / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Harry_Dent

There’s one thing that is always true: Most people are not good investors. They buy the most near a long-term top and they sell the most near the bottoms that follow.

We have lived in a rare period since World War II wherein housing was first boosted by the first middle class generation (The Bob Hope) who could more broadly afford homes and mortgages, and then by the unprecedented and massive Baby Boom generation’s demand.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Personal_Finance

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Downsizing – What to Watch Out For / Personal_Finance / US Housing

By: Submissions

If you find that your current home is now too big for you, the idea of downsizing can be very appealing. Perhaps your children have moved away and the extra space is making you miss them more. Perhaps you’re starting to struggle with getting up and down the stairs, or with keeping everything clean. Perhaps you just like the idea of having a smaller place in a more convenient location, or of freeing up money so you can live more comfortably. Downsizing isn’t always trouble-free, however. To avoid problems, give some thought to the following.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, October 18, 2019

The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Stephen_McBride

Bill Brame edited Star Trek films before he took up “house flipping.”

During the housing boom, Bill was often “turning around” 14 houses at once with three crews of renovators working full time.

In 2004, he paid $400,000 for a house in Hollywood, California. A year later he flipped it for $1.2 million.

Back then, flipping houses was the most profitable side-job in America. Buy a house, fit it with a new kitchen, sell it for a big mark-up, repeat.

In 2006, one in every 10 homes was bought to flip!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, October 11, 2019

US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Dan_Amerman

As can be seen in the graph below, there is an almost uncanny similarity between housing prices at the 2006-2007 peak, and current home prices.

The biggest difference is that current home prices are substantially higher. Should we be worried about a repeat scenario - and another six year decline in home values?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, October 11, 2019

What’s Your Plan as the Home Price Index Hits Zero / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Rodney_Johnson

The real estate industry must have the best lobbyists in the country. How else can you explain that a data-driven transaction – buying or selling a home – has become more onerous, and more cumbersome. And overall more painful even as information becomes cheaper and easier to get?

These guys are protecting their turf, and we’re paying for it.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, October 11, 2019

Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Harry_Dent

Earlier this week I read a great article by Kuppy at Adventures In Capitalism. It brought back memories of the last condo and real estate bubble in Miami… I was there. I was moving to Tampa and sold before the crash that I was nearly alone in forecasting in late 2005 .

Kuppy noted that prices had plateaued for a few years and had begun to drop 20% to 35% in South Beach – and worse in the downtown Brickell area. He talks to a friend who makes non-traditional loans against these condos, and he says “it’s about to blow… just give it six to nine months.”
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Stephen_McBride

Roughly $900 billion worth of real estate changes hands every year in America.

For many folks, buying a home is the biggest decision of their lives.

What is the neighborhood like?

Are the schools good?

How far is the drive to work?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Monday, September 16, 2019

The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Rodney_Johnson

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the tribulations associated with selling a home. We were in the thick of inspections, appraisals, etc. As we sold our home, and worked on a separate home purchase at the same time.

Then our home sale fell through, which killed my purchase. While I might not be heeding Harry’s advice to be real estate free, I’m also not so bullheaded as to own two homes that function as primary residences.

Just like baseball, there’s no crying in real estate. We wiped the slate clean and started over. A new buyer showed up within 10 days.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Monday, September 02, 2019

US Housing Market House Prices Trend Forecast Current State / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's been a while since my last analysis of the US housing market, in fact a full 3 years, preceded by my original 3 year trend forecast covering November 2012 to early 2016 that forecast a strong a bull market against expectations at the time (and for many subsequent years), for it's forgotten today that in the aftermath of the financial crisis the prevailing view was that the US housing market was dead for a generation, and this not just from the usual perma doom merchants (I don't like to name names but you know who they are!) but was consensus view at the time.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, August 23, 2019

Is the Fed Too Late Prevent A US Housing Bear Market? / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

So, the reality is that based on our modeling system and our research, there are only two ways that the US Fed (and likely the global central banks) can navigate out of this inflation killing debt glut that has sunk the global markets into a quicksand-like economic malaise; either A. reduce debts dramatically across the board (all nations) in an attempt to allow for some level of future growth/inflation opportunity, or B. find a way to push GDP out levels to 2x (or higher) that of current debt levels.  A is much more difficult to negotiate and navigate – but it may be an option sometime in the future.  B is the more likely option with a transition into some type of new 21st-century economic model that assists in advancing the build-it, sell-it model.

In the last, Part II, a section of our research, we showed you a chart of our US Fed modeling system and where we believe the US Fed should be targeting rates currently.  The one thing that was a bit different than our original model, created in 2013, was the election of President Trump and the EU, US/China trade wars.  This could complicate things a bit in the future, but overall the model continues to perform well.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Fed Too Late To Prevent US Real Estate Market Crash? / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In Part I of this research, we highlighted the Case-Shiller index of home affordability and how it relates to the US real estate market and consumer economic activity going forward.  We warned that once consumers start to shift away from an optimistic view of the economy, they typically shift into a protectionist stance where they attempt to protect wealth, assets and risk of loss while attempting to weather the economic storm.

We’ve seen this happen in 2008-09 as well as after the 9/11 attacks in the US in 2001.  The process is always somewhat similar.  Consumers start to react to pricing levels that are unaffordable and do so by trying to skimp on extraneous purchases like travel, new cars, credit card debt or other items that are not essential.  The other thing that happens is that the lower tier borrowers (the “at-risk borrowers”) typically begin to become delinquent on debts and fall behind on their mortgage payments.  This is how the process starts.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Fed Too Late To Prevent A US Housing Market Crash? / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime.  It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off.  After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it.  What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index – including all markets in the US.  It is fairly easy to see that in last 2016, on a national level, the Case-Shiller index had reached the 2006 peak level.  After that, the new Trump economy pushed it even higher where we now near 210.  This is a very uncommon level for this index and because we are in uncharted territory with this 210 ranking, it should concern everyone that a reversion maybe somewhere in our future.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

How to Play Interest Rates in US Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Rodney_Johnson

I can walk into a car dealership and drive away with a moving asset worth more than $130,000 in less than an hour. However, if I want to buy – or sell – an immovable object that’s always right where you left it, then I have to go through a million hoops.

Home Sale And Home Purchase

Clearly, I’m frustrated with the latest twist in my home sale and purchase saga.

Everything started out pretty good. We listed the house, had a fair number of showings, no real bites, so lowered the price. And we negotiated with one couple, but before we settled on a number, another group jumped in and out-bid them. We came to an agreement and started the option/inspection/negotiation/appraisal process.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Saturday, July 20, 2019

US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final analysis in my US housing market series that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast.

  • Current State
  • Momentum Analysis
  • US ECONOMY - GDP
  • Unemployment
  • Inflation
  • Producer Prices Index
  • Yield Curve
  • US Debt
  • QE4EVER!
  • DEMOGRAPHICS
  • US Home Builders Index (XHB)
  • US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
  • US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
  • Peering into the Mists of Time
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, July 16, 2019

US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the latest analysis in my US housing market analysis that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast that covers the following in bold

  • Current State
  • Momentum Analysis
  • US ECONOMY - GDP
  • Unemployment
  • Inflation
  • Producer Prices Index
  • Yield Curve
  • US Debt
  • QE4EVER!
  • DEMOGRAPHICS
  • US Home Builders Index (XHB)
  • US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
  • US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
  • Peering into the Mists of Time
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, July 05, 2019

US Home Builders Index (XHB) Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the latest analysis in my US housing market analysis that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast that covers the following in bold

  • Current State
  • Momentum Analysis
  • US ECONOMY - GDP
  • Unemployment
  • Inflation
  • Producer Prices Index
  • Yield Curve
  • US Debt
  • QE4EVER!
  • DEMOGRAPHICS
  • US Home Builders Index (XHB)
  • US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
  • US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
  • Peering into the Mists of Time
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, July 05, 2019

US Housing Market Demographics / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the latest analysis in my US housing market analysis that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast that covers the following in bold

  • Current State
  • Momentum Analysis
  • US ECONOMY - GDP
  • Unemployment
  • Inflation
  • Producer Prices Index
  • Yield Curve
  • US Debt
  • QE4EVER!
  • DEMOGRAPHICS
  • US Home Builders Index (XHB)
  • US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
  • US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
  • Peering into the Mists of Time
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Thursday, July 04, 2019

US Housing Market Is Booming, but Investors Are Still Too Scared to Invest in It / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Stephen_McBride

The US housing market is booming.

This past month the number of Americans looking to buy a new house spiked to a three-year high. Mortgage applications jumped 40%.

And Quicken Loans, the US’s largest mortgage lender, had its best month in 30 years.

“The phone is ringing off the hook” CEO Jay Farner said in a recent interview.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, July 02, 2019

Are US Real Estate ETF’s The Next Big Trade? Part II / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In part I of this research post, we highlighted how the shifting landscape of the US real estate market may be setting up an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.  It is our belief that the continued capital shift which has been driving foreign investment into US assets, real estate, and other investments may be shifting away from US real estate as tell-tale signs of stress are starting to show.  Foreclosures and price drops are one of the first signs that stress exists in the markets and we believe the real estate segment could be setting up for an incredible trade opportunity.

SRS, the Proshares Ultrashort Real Estate EFT has recently completed a unique “washout low” price bottom that we believe may become an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.  If the US Fed pushes the market into a panic mode, sellers will become even more desperate to offload their homes and buyers will become even more discerning in terms of selecting what and when to buy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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