Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Forex Currency Market Strategy EURNZD, AUDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY, USDJPY / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The surging euro hasn't only been a case of broad dollar weakness but also of improving confidence in the Euro zone's biggest economy as the currency posted broad gains even versus the soaring Aussie, Kiwi and loonie.
Our FX Charts strategy yesterday was bullish EURGBP, EURCAD and bearish USDJPY. EURGBP pushed up from 0.7545 to 0.7616, surpassing our 0.7575 objective. EURCAD bounced off its 1.4684 low to 1.4849, exceeding our 1.4780 objective. USDJPY dropped from 107.77 to 106, reaching towards 105.98 and overshooting our 106.80 target.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
AUD/GBP Favourite Currency Play for 2008 Continues to Profit / Currencies / British Pound
By: Ashraf_Laidi
While central banks in most industrialized economies are either reducing interest rates or expected to do so thus year, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to further raise its rates to fresh 12-year highs. Overnight, the RBA revealed in the minutes of its policy meeting this month a debate whether to raise rates by 50-bps. The central bank ended up raising rates by 25-bps to 7.25% to counter rising wage and price inflation. Last week, the Aussie hit multi-month highs after Australia 's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 34-year low of 4.1% last month from 4.3% in Dec. Interest rate futures are now pricing an 80% probability of a 25 bps rate hike next month. Diverging interest and GDP growth rates were the backbone of our December calls for broad Aussie gains versus GBP, EUR and USD. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
US Dollar at Major Turning Point? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: No matter how much money you've made betting against it, there comes a point when you've got to start feeling sorry for the U.S. dollar. In recent years it's become more hated than even the New York Yankees. And that's saying something!
You already know why the dollar has been suffering. Enormous trade deficits, a deteriorating real estate market, rising consumer debt, etc. All of these are contributing to the dollar's demise.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 11, 2008
US Dollar Strengthening as the EURO's Technical Picture is Deteriorating! / Currencies / Euro
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: "The trend is your friend." I'm sure you've heard this market adage a thousand times before. And the wisdom behind that saying has, more often than not, proven absolutely correct. It's a lot easier to profit when you have the wind behind your sails.
When it comes to currencies, the trend has been "dollar down, euro up." For about the last five years, in fact, traders have been getting out of greenbacks and going international.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Currency Market Strategy and Forecasts for February 2008 / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Ashraf_Laidi
We expect the dollar and the yen to emerge as the broad winners in February, dragging the European and antipodean currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) lower amid deepening signs of a slowdown in the Eurozone and the UK , and further reduction in global risk appetite. We do not anticipate the Fed to be forced into an inter-meeting rate cut this month partly due to Fed Chairman Bernanke's scheduled Congressional testimony on the economy next Thursday, which will act as the next driver of market interest rates.
Renewed sharp losses in equities will inevitably trigger speculation of an inter-meeting move, but the Fed is expected to hold off as the past 225-bps cuts have yet to take effect into the full economy. We expect another 125-bps in fed funds rate cuts for the year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Win-Win Economics February 2008 - Alternative Money and Recession Relief / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Susan_Boskey
In This Issue:
In the News: Alternative Money
February Feature: Fourth Corner Exchange Bellingham, Washington
Quote of the month: Charles Mackey, 19th century Scottish journalist - “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 03, 2008
Ben Bernanke Declares War on the US Dollar! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: It's hard to believe that the greenback could get any worse off than it already is, but the Federal Reserve looks dead set on doing everything in its power to punish the buck even more.
Witness the Fed's latest actions ...
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 03, 2008
Gold to Soar in EURO's, as ECB Set to Track US Dollar Lower to Avoid Recession / Currencies / Euro
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
All markets, in their search for a reliable formula that satisfies the scientific and mathematical belief that market relationships are precisely measurable in something else, believe that gold is responding in an opposite way to the $. The corollary to that is, therefore it must be moving in synch with the €? In fact, in the € it has been rising. It is important to look a little more closely at this formula and the realities behind it. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 01, 2008
Remaking the US Dollar from the Bottom Up / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Paul_Petillo
Marco Saba, a researcher at the Italian Center for Monetary Studies and author of a critical book about banking titled "Bankenstein" (2006) took the time to write me about the dollar at the beginning of last year. Mr. Saba?s field of expertise is seignorage (monetary rent), macroeconomic evaluations and central banking.
For those of you unfamiliar with Mr. Saba, his work has led him to the belief that the current monetary system is in need of reform. In fact, the sheer radical-ness of the idea is akin to throwing the baby out with the bath water.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Central Bank Hypocrisy - Fighting Inflation AND Debasing the Dollar / Currencies / Central Banks
By: Axel_Merk
Inflation targeting is yet to be formally adopted by the Federal Reserve (Fed), but recent market and Fed actions already prove that it is a failure. At the whim of trouble in the markets, Fed Chairman Bernanke has made it clear that he is inclined to flood the markets with liquidity at any cost; he said: “We stand ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks.” Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Stock and Financial Market Forecasts 2008 - Currencies - Part 3 / Currencies / Global Financial System
By: Ty_Andros
Introduction
This is the master thread to which all economic analysis must be held up due to the fiat monetary systems practiced UNIVERSALLY around the world. Just like a game of musical chairs, or rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic everyone will go down sooner or later. The central reality is that Currencies don't float, they just sink at different rates .
Currencies are no longer backed by gold or silver and are no one else's liability; they are all now IOU's and are the liability of the central bank and country that issues them. The principle reserves of the world's central banks consist of other country's promises to pay (currency and bonds). As we all know, public servants rarely deliver on their promises, and their “promises to pay” are made of the same timber.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
US Dollar Continuing Rally or Fresh Lows? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Forecasting market tops and bottoms is a mug's game. In reality, the best we can do is trade with confidence when the time is right.
In fact, I've learned the key to long-term market success isn't just about winning trades ... it's about limiting what you lose during the times you are wrong. And I think the single best way to control your risk is by holding two opposing views of the market in your mind at the same time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Housing Bubble Bursts, Subprime Loans Implode, Recession Coming - Buy the YEN! / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: I wish I had a dollar, or maybe a euro, for every time an analyst equated the current subprime mortgage crisis to the Asian financial crisis, and every time the housing bubble was likened to the tech bubble.
With the "R" word threatening in 2008, analysts and economists find themselves turning to earlier events for guidance.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Fed Plays Russian Roulette with US Dollar - Stoking the Fires of Stagflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
In an age where governments of every political stripe distort data to promote their own self interests, it's hardly surprising that they present inflation data in a manner that is best suited to their particular needs. By the same token, it's entirely natural for official inflation data to be wildly at odds with the reality that is faced by consumers and businesses, and to be regarded with utter disbelief. So it wasn't shocking to hear Federal Reserve officials insist last week, that inflation in the United States is under control, before telegraphing another tidal wave of liquidity injections into the US economy in the months ahead. “Stable inflation expectations give the Fed a lot of room for maneuver. If the evidence suggests that substantial policy easing is appropriate, I don't think we're going to face a risk of adverse inflation consequences,” said St Louis Fed chief William Poole on Jan 9th.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 13, 2008
US Dollar and British Pound Both Heading Down! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
The housing market in the United States is collapsing. It's no longer a secret. Nor do you have to be an economist to see how the real estate contagion is taking its toll on the broader American economy.
Heck, the evidence of an economic slowdown was already piled high, and last Friday's jobs report was the cherry on top of the whipped cream!
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 11, 2008
Israeli Shekel Currency Forecast 2008 / Currencies / Israel
By: Boris_Chikvashvili
Dear Readers ( especially Israeli Readers ), Since Dec 2006? our target for SHEKEL was 3.78 Dollars Per Shekel . Congrats, we have arrived. As I write this post Shekel Stands Exactly at 3.78! Now, we expect the SHEKEL to have some more strength and TOP at 3.50 - 370 area within two weeks of JEWISH PASSOVER April 21 2008 . This was the time aimed initially as well. Shekel will decline for 2-3 years thereafter with inital target 4.50(2009) and 4.80(2012) . TA-100 will suffer considerably as foreigners start taking their money home, but could be helped later by weak SHEKEL.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Currency Forecasts 2008 - Protracted Selling of the British Pound / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
A likely major FX theme of 2008 is already being playing out; Protracted selling in the British Pound, broad strength in the Australian dollar and continued rally in gold. We had described the British pound as the likely "dollar of 2008" and so far it hasn't disappointed. GBP drops to new all time lows against the euro, 8-month lows against the dollar, and 10-year lows against the Australian dollar. The latest catalyst to sterling's gloom is a decline in consumer confidence a 13-month low, decline in job placements to a 54-month low, and 2.2% decline in like for like Christmas sales from major retailer Marks & Spencer. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Impact of US Dollar Inflation and Devaluation - ILLUSION, MYTH AND MAGIC / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mark_B_Rasmussen
THE DOLLAR HAS LOST OVER 97% OF ITS PURCHASING POWER SINCE 1913 (THE FOUNDING OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE 94 YRS. AGO).
What does it look like when we convert U.S. benchmarks of value to other THINGS over the past 8 years?
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 06, 2008
US Dollar Stealth Devaluation Leading to Hyper Inflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
Wow, what a start to 2008! So far in 2008, both the Wilshire 5000 (which is essentially the entire U.S. stock market) and the S&P 500 have lost all their gains from the entire year of 2007 in just the first three trading days of 2008. Gold set a new record high , Thursday intraday and closing, at 872.90 and 869.10 respectively. Oil hit $100 a barrel for a moment intraday Wednesday, for the first time ever . The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index enjoyed an 11.83 percent pop the first three trading days of 2008. Sweet. Treasury Bonds rose 2 points , closing inches from 118.00. The Dollar got carved up , falling into the 75's. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 06, 2008
US Recession - Friday Unemployment Bombshell and How to Trade The Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Recession is the operative word for the U.S. economy right now. The housing market is already there. And various other economic indicators are pointing straight down. Just look at the latest data that came out this week ...
The ISM Manufacturing Index report showed that 10 straight months of expansion came to a screeching halt in December. The measure contracted the most since 2003, and was much weaker than everyone expected.
Read full article... Read full article...