Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, March 04, 2011
ECB President Trichet’s Remarks Beg Questions on Eurozone Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: Asha_Bangalore
President Trichet of European Central Bank (ECB) noted at this morning's press conference that "strong vigilance is warranted with a view to containing upside risks to price stability." This statement implies that the ECB is considering tightening monetary policy in the very near term. President Trichet's hawkish stance is based on the region's inflation rate of 2.3% in January and inflation excluding food and energy was 1.2%. The all-items inflation reading exceeds the ECB's target of 2.0% and reflects a jump in energy prices. So, at the top of Trichet's to-do list is to prepare markets for a higher policy rate from the current level of 1.0%.
Thursday, March 03, 2011
How to Profit From the Muni Bond Market Collapse and Subsequent Rebound / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Hedge funds are stalking the $2.9 trillion municipal-bond market like an alley cat stalks a mouse.
In their public statements, Wall Street shills continue to dismiss warnings about "deadbeat states" - and the horrific impact that budgetary shortfalls at the state and local level are going to have on this stodgy slice of the debt market. Anyone who tries to buck this Wall Street view is ridiculed and dismissed as a financial Cassandra.
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011
A No-win Situation for the Fed / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Clif_Droke
A situation is developing the global markets which threatens to undo the recovery of the past two years. The price spikes in fuel and especially agriculture prices is the Achilles’ heel of the recovery and may well serve as its death knell before the year is through. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
Monetizing Governmental Debt AKA Money Printing or in Bernanke’s Vernacular - Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: D_Sherman_Okst
Here are some realities on Quantitive Easing:Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 01, 2011
China Holdings of U.S. Treasuries Revised Up An Unsustainable 30% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Annual revisions released Monday show that China's holding of US treasuries is 30% greater than reported just weeks ago.
I am not surprised given that persistent rumors of China dumping treasuries made little mathematical sense from a balance of trade standpoint. Instead, I suggested China was accumulating treasuries via trading desks in the UK. We now see that is precisely the case.
Monday, February 28, 2011
German Economic Growth Miracle is Not Miraculous Enough for an ECB Rate Hike / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: ECR_Research
The case for an interest rate increase by the ECB is building. Inflation in the euro zone is creeping up, and tensions in the Middle East are adding fuel to the ‘inflation fire’ by sending oil prices higher. The biggest worry of the ECB is that, although the inflationary effects of higher oil prices are mostly temporary, it will lead to a positive wage-price spiral in Europe’s biggest economy: Germany.
Monday, February 28, 2011
European Sovereign Debt Crisis Wake Up Call for US? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: ECR_Research
Andy Langenkamp writes: The American fiscal condition faces a perfect storm. The outlook for the medium term has deteriorated markedly. Some important causes are the Big Recession and the extension of the Bush tax cuts. Nor are the projections cheerful in the long term. In the coming period these issues will come to a head.
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Sunday, February 27, 2011
Ireland Crippled by Debt Votes for More of the Same / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
When Irish eyes are smiling,
Sure, 'tis like the morn in Spring.
In the lilt of Irish laughter
You can hear the angels sing.
When Irish hearts are happy,
All the world seems bright and gay.
And when Irish eyes are smiling,
Sure, they steal your heart away.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
U.S. Treasury Bonds TLT Technical Take / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
It is my belief that we have seen the high in long term Treasury yields at least for a while, and I expressed this opinion in yesterday's article on Treasury yields. Today, I thought it would be instructive to look at the bullish technical patterns developing in the i - Shares Lehman 20 plus Year Treasury Fund (symbol: TLT).
Friday, February 25, 2011
How Strong is the German Bonds Bund Rally? / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Technical Trader’s view:
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Long Term U.S. Treasury Yields Heading Lower / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
Lost in all the noise about crude oil this week and its effect on the economic recovery (i.e., the equity rally) has been the top in Treasury yields. This article will cover the technical aspects of the Ultra Short Lehman 20 plus Year Treasury Fund (symbol: TBT).
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Three Ways to Dodge the Looming Bear Market in U.S. Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
Put 100 investors in a room and most will tell you how worried they are that the still-bullish U.S. stock market is going to betray them for a third time in slightly more than a decade.
But I submit that it’s the bonds that these folks are right now holding that should be the real focus of their concern - and for one very good reason: Most investors view the global bond market as a stodgy source of fixed income, when it’s actually the largest, most complex and most sensitive capital market in the world today.
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Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Municipal Bond Market Score Card / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Fred_Sheehan
Meredith Whitney has kicked up a storm with her 600-page, municipal-bond report. She was one of the first analysts on Wall Street who warned the banks were going to topple well before they toppled. (Standard & Poor's downgraded Bear Stearns three notches - to BBB - on March 14, 2008, two days before J.P. Morgan acquired Bear's carcass.) Whitney told 60 Minutes on December 19, 2010: "You could see...50 to 100 sizable [municipal] defaults.... This will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of defaults." The municipal bond CABAL (issuers, fund managers, analysts, the municipalities) denounced Whitney and her predictions.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Unsustainable and Simply Unpayayable Global Sovereign Public Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Bob_Chapman
Public debt has become a problem worldwide. What is becoming more and more evident is that it is unsustainable and simply unpayable. It could be compared to a giant Ponzi scheme. We see no meaningful debt reductions thus, government will have to raise taxes, which will further suppress the economy, or people and companies will be forced to buy such bonds, or perhaps pension and retirement funds will be seized to continue the game for a while longer.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Sustainable Shortfalls on Unsustainable Debt, Buy Gold / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Richard_Daughty
From the Economic Collapse Blog, an essay I found at LewRockwell.com, we learn the horrifying news that the United States Census Bureau has, for some reason, probably after spending millions and billions of dollars and countless man-hours, found out that there are approximately 1.5 billion credit cards in use in the United States, although what this has to do with the Census Bureau is beyond me, except that they are probably trying to justify their existence in light of looming budget cuts in light of a collapsing economy.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
US Budget Expenditures - CBO Long Term Outlook / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jesse
Obviously one can question their growth assumptions, and therefore tax revenue assumptions.
However bear in mind that this chart is for the expenditures as a percentage of GDP, and is therefore tied to the growth.
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Thursday, February 17, 2011
The Fed is Wrong – Inflation Has Arrived! / Interest-Rates / Inflation
By: Sy_Harding
Fed Chairman Bernanke says inflation is still benign and not a concern. He’s wrong! And he’s behind the curve, dangerously so!
Inflationary pressures have been rising and recognized in many major global economies for quite some time, which has had their central banks raising interest rates and tightening monetary policies in efforts to bring rising prices under control. So far without effect, thanks to the intensity of the inflationary pressures.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
U.S. Bond Market Failure as China and Russia Join PIMCO in Selling U.S. Treasury / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Justin_John
The 10 year yield is waiting like dynamite with fuse lit, ready to blow the top off. 10 year yield are holding at 3.6% and any clean break of 3.7% will see 5.3% as the next target literally killing the recovery and taking down equities with it for the next 10 years.
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Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Why Increasing Bank Credit Can Only End in Catastrophe / Interest-Rates / Inflation
By: Richard_Daughty
I have to admit that I was stunned that Fed Credit (the magical fairy dust from which money appears out of thin air) two weeks ago went up by a huge $19 billion, which the Fed itself used to buy $18.4 billion in government debt. In one week! In One Freaking Week (OFW)!!
As Eric Fry, Editorial Director of The Daily Reckoning, puts it, "The effect of this bizarre transaction is that one branch of the government issues debt securities, while another branch of the government purchases those securities"!!!
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Sunday, February 13, 2011
Modern Monetary Theory Part II: Money and The Limits of Empire / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Jesse
The limit of the Fed's and Treasury's ability to create money is the value and acceptance of the dollar and the bond in market transactions.The Weimar government never 'ran out of money.' Zimbabwe never 'ran out of money.' And if interest is paid 'in your currency money' you can never fail to service your debt either.